UT Austin. UT Dallas. (Retired) CPA, CGMA, NFL team owner. 13 years cancer free. I’m really not that interesting. @Lorraine_Heath is my benevolent overlord.
Every market has a fellow who is certain the prices are wrong and that he alone knows the right ones. Usually the market charges him tuition for this belief. Occasionally, it hands him the Treasury.
Consider the record. In 2000, Scott Bessent left Soros to run $1 billion of his own. Five years later, the fund no longer existed. In 2015 he tried again with Key Square, co-founded with Soros alum Michael Germino and seeded with $2 billion of Soros money — which is a bit like failing your driving test and being handed a Ferrari. Assets peaked at $5.1 billion in 2017 and finished 2023 at $577 million. Institutional investors reportedly went from 180 to 20, a retention rate that would embarrass a gym in February. And in 2018, Soros — the man who staked him — took his chips off the table. When your own anchor investor would rather not watch, that is not typically a buy signal.
Which brings us to the question: is the man now confidently dictating where oil, the dollar, Treasury yields, and stocks ought to trade a macro mastermind the market tragically failed to appreciate? Or did the market spend two decades doing its due diligence on him — and sell? He believes he’s smarter than the market. The market already graded that exam. Twice.
I read an article this morning that said “we are mourning in future tense” and that hit hard. Watching everything happen around us in real time is hard enough, but knowing that it’s going to be a long road to hopefully put it all back together is even harder.
Here is a thought experiment that several analysts keep returning to: if a president actually wanted to dismantle American superpower status, what would he be doing differently from what Trump is doing right now?
Consider the record. He has feuded with NATO and cast doubt on the alliance guarantee that anchored Western security for 70 years. He has slapped tariffs on the EU and individual European allies, and this week launched a 50 percent trade war against Canada, America's closest partner.
He has pressured South Korea and Japan over troop costs while courting their adversaries.
Gulf states, battered by the Iran war, now question the American security umbrella so openly that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan just signed their own mutual defence pact.
Sanctions and Hormuz chaos are pushing oil trade toward the yuan, eroding the dollar's reserve role while national debt passes 40 trillion. And through it all, he speaks warmly of Putin and Kim Jong Un while insulting the billion people living under allied flags.
Superpower status rests on three pillars: alliances, the dollar, and credibility. All three are being sawed at simultaneously.
So what explains it?
Option A: sheer ignorance, a government that simply does not understand how the world works.
Option B: revenge, a man settling scores with an establishment he believes wronged him.
Option C: outside pressure, someone else's interests being served.
None of these options is comforting. And the pattern remains the same whichever one you pick.
Our OR is completely booked with trans reversal surgeries. We can't do anything else. People are dying of preventable diseases waiting in hallway beds while these trans reversal surgeries are happening. I just did 10 last night and I don't even do surgery.
trump will just bail out these ranchers when his new imported beef hurt their business and brag about how he save them from Biden policies then these same ranchers will cheer and vote Republican again.
Because, really, who could have foreseen that Iran might attack other Gulf states during a war, except everyone who ever thought about war with Iran or ever saw a wargame about it
In Myrtle Beach yesterday, President Trump said hospitals are now doing reverse transgender surgery at his order and "nobody ever heard about it."
That's how you know you can trust in Trump. The dear man cares enough to share national secrets with us🙏🇺🇸
The United States and Canada have been friends, partners, and allies for more than 150 years across 32 presidential administrations. And now, because of the arrogance, incompetence, and ego of the current occupant of the White House, that relationship is being driven straight toward a cliff. It’s a failure of leadership on a scale that’s hard to overstate.
You hear that South Carolina? If you elect Darlene she won’t work for you. She doesn’t understand the job. She’ll just do what she’s told. You deserve better. Vote @AnnieAndrewsMD