Nathan Therien

UT2020 Burn the boats

[Jolly @0xJolly]

Using regular retirees as exit liquidity. I’m mostly pro free markets but what private equity has done to this nation has been catastrophic

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Not sure why it wasn’t obvious to everyone that Trump and Bessent’s deliberate plan was to unwind the bloating in government payroll that was used by Biden to disguise underlying private sector weakness.

The frontloading of economic pain in 2025 IS the plan, not a bug. Tariffs and DOGE are the vectors of the policy.

Unwinding the massive bloating in non-productive employment when the Fed seems to be focused on inflation risks (inflation resurgence would require more than just tariffs imo, precisely a weakening $ combined with tariffs, which is exactly the opposite of what’s happening now - said differently with every day that passes with more $ strength, Fed focus is increasingly offside and it’s policy implicitly tighter). serves a second goal of forcing the Fed’s hand on rates and B/S run-off.

Tariffs are an important part of this plan to create an EM (yes that includes EU 😝) deflationary impulse. Obviously the policy is mostly aimed at China.

Government over-spending is bad for medium to long term growth, there should no doubt about it. Biden left office with roughly 3% of GDP in excess government spending. This is a private sector growth brake through much higher interest rates and crowding out (effect is all the more pronounced given the higher levels of debt/GDP). Government spending pressures productivity, which could explain the fact that despite all the recent innovations, productivity is stagnant. This is precisely the reason why all the spurious theories about “fiscal dominance” were bullshit all along. Above sustainable fiscal spending is self defeating.

So the plan is to frontload the pain, but free the private sector growth potential to respond better to lower rates, lower taxes and lower regulation and engineer a more sustainable recovery early on in Trump’s second term.

For those who know how to read, there are plenty of embedded trades in this tweet.

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

It’s all about China.
Even when it’s not about China, it’s about China.

[DramaAlert @DramaAlert]

The Rizzler's wishes for 2025... we made the right kid famous.

[Financial Times @FT]

Argentina’s economy exits recession in milestone for Milei https://t.co/vCSDhXAoiX

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

On the eve of the Nov CPI print, let a us take a step back to understand just how totally useless this whole data series became.

It all started with exclusions. If the elections taught us anything, it’s that excluding Food from CPI to focus on Core and excluding shelter from Core to focus on Super Core is Super Moronic.

Just like folks don’t relate to what used to be called mainstream media anymore, they don’t relate to or care about any of these official statistics.

Having monetary policy driven by a set of data that no one relates to is peak absurdity. It lead to major policy mistakes like transitory, like trust us shelter inflation will moderate soon, like focusing on core services ex-shelter an utterly useless measure, etc…

There needs to be an overhaul of how inflation is estimated and calculated as a prelude to rooting it out.

The vast majority of working Americans care about a pretty simple basket of non discretionary spending categories, prime of which are groceries, shelter, insurance and health.

Inflation cannot be controlled by the Fed alone and requires some regulatory reviews and overhauls to reduce volatility, stickiness and improve overall monetary policy transmission.

It’s really no more than common sense to review data construction as the structure of the economy is in constant flex.

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Without going into specifics, there is no way to price a Trump set of economic policies at this stage. The general guidelines that have served as election template will yield very different outcomes depending on how and when they are implemented.

Which begs the question of just how corrupt and inept are all those economic Nobel Prizes and experts that have been so vocal against his agenda on the grounds of it decimating growth and stoking inflation.

For instance, Trump policies translated into a deregulatory push, more privatisation, streamlining of Federal outlays, headcount and agencies, no aggressive protectionism, pragmatic legal immigration facilitation while arresting illegal immigration, gradualism and pragmatism in tariffs and tax cuts, a sound geostrategic policy that supports internal energy investments and de-regulation of fossil fuels investments to achieve sustainable low energy prices, all of the above would yield a very different outcome from the one the market is fearing and pricing.

Just saying.

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

The consensus right now is that Europe is a big loser because of Trump’s election. What is mostly talked about are direct tariffs and broadly global trade wars to which Europe is more exposed to.

The reality is much more painful though. Europe is slipping, irremediably, behind in a global innovation and growth race, and this is not due only to a lack of major investments as Draghi points out.

The real issue is that Europe’s old socialist engineering export centric growth model is almost obsolete, but the archaic over-regulatory, low disposable income internal demand, crushingly large government share of the economy, and ideological approach to energy edifice on which it stands remains an unassailable fortress. It both deters, prevents and crowds-out private innovation, as well as destroys the right incentive scheme needed to sustain higher real growth.

And what happens every time this reality becomes acutely clear? The instincts always revert back to increasing State spending and giving spurious mandates to the ECB (climate change).

It’s time European citizens take their own destiny in their own hands because there are now too many vested interests in the current status quo for any meaningful reform to ever happen through these cycles of sham elections.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Huge thank you to everyone who supported this platform and our mutual quest to support freedom of speech!

[Javier Milei @JMilei]

.@realDonaldTrump congratulations on your formidable electoral victory.
Now, Make America Great Again. You know that You can count on Argentina to carry out your task.
Success and blessings.
Best regards,
Javier Milei ( @JMilei )

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Waiting a day to give her concession speech was a big mistake. By tomorrow, Kamala will literally be yesterday’s news. No one will even tune in.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The people of America gave @realDonaldTrump a crystal clear mandate for change tonight

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Godspeed to President @realDonaldTrump, Vice President @JDVance, @elonmusk, @RobertKennedyJr and @VivekGRamaswamy

Go 🇺🇸!!

[Rand Paul @RandPaul]

FINALLY, with a Republican Senate majority we can focus on controlling spending, limiting gov, and putting America 1st! Looking forward to a dedication to fiscal responsibility. Cheers to the Senate leading the charge for a streamlined government focused on the Constitution! 🥂

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Donald Trump is projected to win the popular vote for the Republican party for the first time in 20 years, per NYT

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The future is gonna be fantastic

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

THANK YOU PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA! I WILL END INFLATION, I WILL STOP THE INVASION OF CRIMINALS COMING ACROSS OUR BORDER, I WILL STRENGTHEN OUR MILITARY, I WILL RESTORE PEACE IN THE WORLD, and I WILL RESCUE THE AMERICAN DREAM!

[Isaiah Taylor - making nuclear reactors @isaiah_p_taylor]

Let it be noticed that once he decided that this race was existential, Elon basically just set up camp in PA and sat there until it flipped.

This is how he does everything.

Find the one lever that moves the world and then just go jump up and down on it, relentlessly

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

The world will be able to judge the relative quality of the governance at @Harvard, @Penn, and @MIT by the comparative speed by which their boards fire their respective presidents.

[Matt Gaetz @mattgaetz]

Ok. Let’s negotiate.

My GOP colleagues want to raise the threshold on the motion to vacate.

This is a question for all of them.

If we enact the reforms @RepRoKhanna lays out here….

How high would you like the MTV threshold to be?

Because I’ll basically give you whatever you want on the MTV for this stuff 👇