Nav Ras

US person living in the PRC - Bitcoin proponent, Bahá’í & world citizen

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@Liathetrader @DrNeilStone If you think that was a bad game I’m not sure you were ever interested.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@dzdarrell @RickSanchezTV @RT_com 17 years of “short” history

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@olvelez007 @TXMCtrades He is generally not a bitcoiner. From what I noticed, he will make 10 posts about Bitcoin and 8 of them will have some negative Nancy spin to it.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@WatcherGuru Try not to jinx it

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@AdamBLiv Might be time for a bears in shambles post

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@ZeroHedge_ Mr Cheerfull always brightens everyone’s day

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@AdamSimecka @ColeMacro Bonds need to be repaid. Their preferred is like a perpetual product with a yield that’s pays you regularly like a bond but never comes due.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@TJTheWheelDeal The set some pretty straight forward parameters moving forward. It’s not that complicated.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

It can be converted at a reasonable pace for near market price to USD. If a large real estate holding company suddenly went belly up and held a large amount of properties in a certain region and had to sell yes it would effect the value, but not to a large extent if the properties were scarce, highly sought after by liquid buyers.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@ZeroHedge_ Lots of parasites commenting on Bitcoin(cough cough) . Saylor not one of them

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@kashyap286 And that’s why no one will remember you name.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@Snz_BTC Your graph literally disproves what you just said.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@AThrouvalas 💯 but the haters are enjoying dancing on his grave at the moment.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@ZeroHedge_ Like you would even listen to anybody if they tried to explain it we all know where your head is.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@saylor This is what I want to hear. Looking forward to see what new innovations come as a result of these tests.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@GCV_geoff @TheOtherParker_ I heard STRC described in a lot of ways. But in no explanation or ad did I ever get the impression that is was guaranteed. I think moving forward they need to simply up the yield and wait, at the same time, the marketing of this product needs to be rethought.

[Nav Ras @NavRas95]

@dotkrueger @mattkratter It’s almost as if you want people to lose respect

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

Here the real stats for the historical "floor".
Bitcoin near $58K, in power-law context — the data without the noise.

The long-run fit (price ∝ days^5.67, R² 0.96 on 2010–2026 daily data) puts the trend at ~$135K today. $58K is −1.22σ below trend — a factor of ~2.3 — and −54% off the $124.8K ATH.

That is ordinary cycle-low territory. Every major bottom has landed between −0.7σ and −1.4σ (mean −1.05σ):

2012: −1.25σ
2015: −1.38σ
2019: −0.75σ
2020: −0.72σ
2022: −1.17σ

$58K sits right among them — essentially the 2022 and 2012 lows.

On levels: the casually-cited −1σ floor is ÷2 ≈ $68K today. The more robust support — −1.3σ, which has bounded ~97.5% of all history — is ≈ $55K. So $58K is below the loose −1σ line but still above the statistical floor.

Two structural notes:
— The band is compressing. Residual σ has fallen 0.38 → 0.14 across cycles. This top (+0.22σ, Oct 2025) barely exceeded trend, versus +1.2σ (≈16×) in early cycles. Both tails are contracting.
— This is not a power-law break. The model's actual falsification condition is −3σ (~$17K today) sustained for over a year. We are nowhere near it.

$58K is a deep but historically normal drawdown.