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Jensen Huang is investing in every photonics company he can find and the reason why tells you everything about where AI is headed (Save this).
Lip-Bu Tan, the CEO of Intel says, when he looks for investment opportunities, he looks for the bottleneck and right now, the bottleneck is the interconnect, the pipes that move data between chips inside an AI data center.
That is why he backed Credo Semiconductor, Astera Labs and Celestial AI on the optical side.
Here is the simple version of what the interconnect bottleneck actually means.
Think of an AI data center like a city, the GPUs are the buildings where all the work happens but for those buildings to function, you need roads connecting them, fast roads that can carry enormous traffic without congestion.
And those roads are now the single biggest constraint on AI performance.
As clusters scale to hundreds of thousands of GPUs, traditional copper wiring is hitting its physical limits and that is where this entire sector comes in.
Credo Semiconductor (CRDO) is the most direct pure play on this theme, Credo makes high speed cables and optical chips that connect GPUs inside data center racks.
Their revenue tripled in fiscal 2026 to $1.3 billion, growing 272% year over year at its peak and four of the world's largest hyperscalers each individually account for more than 10% of Credo's revenue.
Astera Labs (ALAB) solves the connection problem between different chip types.
Astera makes the PCIe and connectivity chips that manage data flow between GPUs, CPUs, and memory without errors or slowdowns.
Their revenue grew 93% year over year to $308 million in Q1 2026 alone.
The optical companies are where the longer-term and potentially larger opportunity lives.
Copper has physical limits, you can only push electrical signals so far before the signal degrades, the heat spikes and power consumption explodes.
The solution is light, fiber optic connections that move data using photons instead of electrons which is faster, cooler and far more energy efficient.
Jensen Huang made this clear at Computex 2026 because copper works as long as physically possible but at greater distances and larger scale, optics takes over.
Coherent (COHR) is the most established optical company in this space.
Coherent makes the lasers, transceivers, and optical components at the foundation of all fiber optic communications.
Nvidia signed a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment and invested $2 billion directly into the company and their customer order books are already extending out to 2028.
Marvell (MRVL) is the most comprehensive bet across the entire connectivity stack.
Marvell makes chips for optical networking, PCIe switching and custom AI silicon.
Jensen Huang called Marvell the next trillion dollar company at Computex 2026 and backed it with a $2 billion Nvidia investment.
Marvell also acquired Celestial AI, the exact company Lip-Bu Tan backed for $3.25 billion, gaining photonic fabric technology delivering 16 terabits per second of bandwidth.
Lumentum (LITE), Corning (GLW), and Ciena (CIEN) round out the major public names.
Lumentum received a $2 billion Nvidia investment for laser and photonics components.
Corning known mostly for phone glass received $500 million from Nvidia for optical connectivity work and is up over 100% year to date.
Ciena runs the optical networking systems between data centers and is seeing analyst price targets raised on the back of the AI optics boom.
Every time a hyperscaler spends a billion dollars on Nvidia GPUs, the surrounding infrastructure, cables, switches, transceivers, optical components has to be upgraded to match.
The smarter the GPU gets, the more the interconnect matters.
Nvidia has committed at least $6.5 billion to photonics companies in the past 4 months alone and the companies building the roads between the GPUs may end up being just as valuable as the companies building the GPUs themselves.
Follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI, semis and the next big market themes.
🚨Everyone is still buying the chips. The bottleneck already moved.
A GPU that computes in nanoseconds and waits microseconds for data is a stranded asset. At 1.6T speeds, copper runs out of physics. The constraint on AI is no longer how fast you can think. It's how fast you can move what you thought.
Jensen has now said it twice in three months.
At GTC in March: "Is copper going to still be important? The answer is yes... Are you going to scale up optical? Yes. Are you going to scale out optical? Yes... We need a lot more capacity for copper. We need a lot more capacity for optics. We need a lot more capacity for CPO."
Last week at Computex, on Marvell's stage: "Optics where you must, copper where you can." Then he called Marvell the next trillion-dollar company and the optical complex repriced within days. The same keynote put a date on the handoff: 200G per lane is the last generation where copper is sufficient. After that, optics takes the rack.
Translation: not copper OR light. Copper now, light next, unprecedented amounts of both. 🔥
The chain is unavoidable: AI tokens are profitable → more GPUs → more bandwidth → copper hits its wall → photonics becomes the chokepoint.
And the smart money stopped debating. Follow the closed deals:
→ $NVDA has committed at least $6.5B to photonics in three months: $2B into Lumentum, $2B into Coherent, a $500M stake in Corning, and a piece of Ayar Labs' $500M round. Direct investments to secure its own light supply.
→ $MRVL paid $3.25B for Celestial AI, up to $5.5B with milestones, to build what its CEO calls a silicon photonics powerhouse.
→ $CRDO closed DustPhotonics two weeks ago. Ciena bought CPO startup Nubis for $270M.
North of $10B of strategic capital locked up one supply chain in under a year. Capital like that doesn't chase a theme. It secures a bottleneck.
LAYER 1: WAFER. Every laser starts as a crystal.
🟠 $AXTI: the InP substrate leader. The first chokepoint in the stack.
🟡 $IQE: compound-semi epiwafers feeding the laser makers. Speculative, but structurally upstream.
LAYER 2: LIGHT. Photons don't make themselves.
🟠 $LITE: revenue +90% YoY last quarter to $808M. EML shipments doubled and management says demand still exceeds supply across EMLs, pump lasers, and transceivers. NVIDIA just wired them $2B. OCS backlog past $400M plus a multi-hundred-million CPO order for 2027.
🟢 $SIVEF (Stockholm: SIVE): the external light source. CPO does not emit its own light. Every optical engine needs a continuous-wave InP laser feeding it, and that is the layer you cannot engineer around. ELS modules with POET hit production readiness end of this year. Disclosure: long.
🟣 $POET: the optical engine wildcard. Its Optical Interposer pairs with Sivers' lasers on external light sources for CPO, with a LITEON module deal stacked on top. Binary commercialization, real architecture.
LAYER 3: OPTICS AND MODULES. Where light meets the rack.
🟠 $COHR: the volume anchor in transceivers, holding NVIDIA's other $2B check.
🔵 $AAOI: Q1 revenue +51% to a record $151M, datacenter revenue more than doubled, $124M of 800G orders plus a $200M+ 1.6T order in hand. Scaling Texas capacity toward 500K+ units a month by year-end, targeting $1B+ revenue this year. Domestic supply while everyone fights over offshore. Disclosure: long.
🟠 $FN: the foundry of optics. When Fabrinet is building, the orders already exist.
THE INTERCONNECT: the layer the rack cannot route around.
🔵 $CRDO: just closed DustPhotonics. SerDes → DSP → silicon photonics → system integration, one company, 800G through 3.2T. Electrical AND optical, end to end. FY26 revenue tripled to $1.34B at 68% gross margin. The toll booth on both roads. Disclosure: long.
🟠 $MRVL: $3.25B for Celestial AI, and Jensen's trillion-dollar nod on the Computex stage.
🟠 $AVGO: switch silicon, optical DSPs, CPO engines. They define the socket.
🟠 $ANET: the AI spine. 100K-GPU clusters get stitched together in light.
LAYER 4: PACKAGING, FIBER, FOUNDRY. Where photons get industrialized.
🔵 $TSEM: the neutral silicon photonics foundry. Prints wafers for whoever wins.
🟣 $LPKF: glass-substrate packaging for glass-based CPO. Real technology, binary commercialization.
🟠 $GLW: AI racks demand several times the fiber density of legacy cloud, and NVIDIA just took a $500M stake. Corning sells density.
LAYER 5: TEST AND THE ANALOG UNDERLAYER. Complexity is a tax paid in validation.
🔵 $AEHR: silicon photonics test, ramping with the cycle. '
🔵 $VIAV: every 800G and 1.6T transceiver gets validated before it ships. The gate the market prices like an accessory.
🔵 $SMTC: the drivers and TIAs that fire the lasers. Sits directly under the LPO trade.
🔵 $MTSI: the high-speed analog behind 1.6T engines.
🟠 $CIEN: transport. Even long-haul is buying light.
💡The counter-thesis, because every map needs one. The honest debate on this stack is whether these are genuine bottleneck assets or cyclical optics suppliers enjoying peak demand at peak multiples. Lumentum's May print showed +90% growth with the stock up roughly 1,400% over the prior year at a triple-digit trailing multiple. That is a price for perfection. Most of these names live or die on a handful of hyperscaler capex lines, and one digestion quarter hits the whole stack at once. CPO timing has already slipped once. Architecture risk is real: LPO, CPO, and stretched copper are still fighting for the same sockets. The cycle is real. So is the gravity. 🔥
But the bears have to explain one thing: $NVDA, $MRVL, $CRDO, and $CIEN just spent over $10B securing this supply chain with their own balance sheets. The people with the best information are paying up for the layers.
The market owns the top of this stack. The asymmetry is at the edges: wafer, light, packaging, test.
Own the layers, not the logo.
Bookmark this for the weekend. Then tag the one investor you know who's still all compute and no interconnect. 👀
Reflections from a Seven-Year Shareholder: Why Sivers Semiconductors / $SIVE Was Always Destined for Greatness
After nearly seven years as a shareholder in Sivers Semiconductors, I have watched this company evolve from an overlooked Swedish deeptech player into a force at the intersection of photonics, wireless communications, AI infrastructure, and strategic defense technologies. The recent surge in the share price is not a surprise to those of us who have followed the story closely it is the logical unfolding of a thesis many of us articulated years ago when few were listening.
From the moment I first dug into the company, its potential felt enormous and profoundly underappreciated. The technology advanced lasers for co-packaged optics in AI data centers, beamforming ICs for 5G/6G and SATCOM, and full-duplex arrays for electronic warfare sits at the heart of multiple secular megatrends. Yet for years, the market fixated on quarterly losses, development costs, and execution risks while largely ignoring the customer pipeline, partnerships, and technological edge.
Where Unicorns Are Born
This is how real winners emerge. History is clear: transformative companies are rarely discovered in consensus comfort zones. They are unearthed where sentiment is exhausted, where weak hands have capitulated, and where the narrative is dominated by skepticism. Sivers spent years in that crucible not for the faint-hearted.
You had to immerse yourself in the details: the photonics platform’s unique indium phosphide capabilities and its work with hyperscalers, AI data center players, $AAPL (sensing) and Win Semiconductors, along with key partners such as Jabil and GlobalFoundries; the wireless division’s tier-1 engagements with names like Nokia, BAE Systems, SATCOM operators and the U.S. government itself. Companies and institutions of that caliber do not collaborate, co-develop, or plan multi-year programs with you unless there is real substance and a clear path forward. That, for me, is the only validation you truly need. Add to that the expanding opportunity pipeline now approaching $800 million and strategic validations like repeat US CHIPS Act funding, and the picture becomes very clear.
Bears and headline-chasers thrive on the opposite approach. Swedish media have produced more than 50 negative articles in recent times the positive ones you can count on one hand. It is a witch hunt. They obsessively highlight risk, risk, risk, with almost no mention of the enormous potential. How can anyone take them seriously? They have no skin in the game. If they could invest successfully, they wouldn’t be working for newspapers. They pretend to be all-knowing, but the truth is no one knows exactly where technology and the market are heading. After two decades working with IT companies large and small I understand both the tech and the market. That is why I am bullish, and why this development does not surprise me.
The same goes for the short sellers. One recent 43-page “analysis” packed with incorrect assumptions and misinformation was clearly designed to create fear and doubt. I could refute every single point, but why give them more oxygen? Notably, they don’t even dare to hold a meaningful disclosed short position. That is weaker than their analysis. I put real money on the table and take real risk. Please increase your shorts. I am waiting for you to go under.
Leadership and Shareholder Transitions: A Healthy Reset
Some former insiders and larger holders have exited. I am not surprised I am relieved. They did not deserve to be part of the journey that is now unfolding, a journey that is still far from over.
Erik Fällström and his associates supported the company for many years, and for that we are grateful. But the attempts to extract personal gain crossed a line most notably trying to spin off the photonics division into a SPAC where he (via Achilles Capital / DDM) was a major sponsor, at what looked like bargain terms. The chairman and new CEO rightly put a stop to it. Shortly after, the selling began. He sold the majority of his holdings around 4 SEK. Karma is real. In parallel, Achilles Capital and its parent DDM Finance have been forced to apply for corporate reconstruction due to massive debt issues. The contrast between opportunism and long-term conviction could not be clearer.
Harish Krishnaswamy came in via the MixComm acquisition. I will not lie I like Harish. He is technically strong and has an excellent network that helped land key development agreements, including CHIPS Act wins. At the same time, I am not surprised he is selling. He has sold multiple times before, often at 4–8 SEK levels. This latest sale seems to be his chance to redeem all the earlier exits at much lower prices a kind of psychological average to finally make it feel better. Am I happy about it? No. But this is the same person who, several times right after Sivers secured major agreements, sold and killed the momentum, or sold when tax bills came due. As one of the founders, I think he simply wanted to feel that his years at MixComm finally delivered something tangible. This was the last time, and frankly, it feels damn good.
Funds that fully exited did so because they operate under strict risk mandates and manage other people’s money. That is natural and not a negative signal.
These departures represent a healthy cleansing. The right people and the right long-term capital are now aligned for the next phase.
The Path Forward
No one has a crystal ball. No one knows exactly how large the Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) market will ultimately become. But I genuinely believe people will be shocked by the speed and momentum once it really starts ramping. The combination of exploding AI compute demand, power constraints in data centers, and Sivers’ differentiated indium phosphide laser platform positions the company at the center of one of the most important technology shifts of this decade.
The current momentum validates what patient shareholders have long seen. Product ramps, pipeline conversion, CHIPS Act milestones, and potential US dual-listing preparations are tangible progress. Volatility will remain; bears will resurface. But conviction built on deep research outlasts noise.
To newer investors: Do your own work. Ignore the echo chamber of fear. Build your own mosaic from primary sources. True edges come from independent thinking. The easy path is skepticism and short-termism. The harder, more rewarding one is sustained belief grounded in analysis.
Sivers was never a quick flip. It was and remains a multi-year compounder for those willing to look beyond the noise. The diamond was always there for those with the eyes to see it. The journey is far from over, and the best chapters are still ahead.
Stay bullish. Stay informed. And above all, trust the work you’ve done.
When $SPY crashes 10%-20% this summer, everything will be on sale.
Add these 16 stocks for the reversal of a lifetime:
1. $NOW — AI automates every enterprise workflow at scale
Buy zone: $85–$100 | Near 52-week lows, massive AI re-rating
2. $BE — Fuel cells powering AI data centers off the grid
Buy zone: $200–$220 | $ORCL deal de-risks demand story
3. $ASTS — Satellite broadband direct to your phone, globally
Buy zone: $65–$70 | Post-earnings flush, thesis intact
4. $GOOG — Gemini + TPUs + Search = AI moat unmatched
Buy zone: $300–$320 | Key support, 52-week low area
5. $LITE — Optical switches are the nervous system of AI
Buy zone: $600–$700 | Pulled back from $1,000+, still growing 85% YoY
6. $MU — HBM memory is the oxygen inside every AI server
Buy zone: $700–$750 | Key support after Broadcom-induced selloff
7. $SNDK — NAND flash storage exploding on AI inference demand
Buy zone: $1,100–$1,200 | Bull flag on the weekly chart
8. $TE — Data center power infrastructure, critical AI backbone
Buy zone: $6–$7 | Oversold, government energy tailwinds building
9. $RKLB — Launch provider + space systems for AI-connected satellites
Buy zone: $80–$90 | Pulled back hard, $816M SDA contract intact
10. $AAOI — 800G transceivers shipping to hyperscalers at scale
Buy zone: $120–$130 | Volatile beta, best entry on deep dips
11. $NVDA — Designs the GPUs that run every AI model on earth
Buy zone: $165–$175 | 52-week support zone, Jensen demand still intact
12. $ONDS — Drones + autonomous rail powering AI-enabled defense
Buy zone: $7–$8 | Near prior base breakout level
13. $IONQ — Trapped-ion quantum computers for post-classical AI computing
Buy zone: $27–$40 | 52-week range low, government funding tailwind
14. $AMD — EPYC + MI300X chipping away at NVDA's AI market share
Buy zone: $350–$360 | Key technical support from prior consolidation
15. $ARM — Architecture inside every AI chip ever designed
Buy zone: $220–$240 | Pulled back from highs, royalty model scales forever
16. $ORCL — Cloud infra + AI database layer for the enterprise
Buy zone: $130–$140 | Near 52-week lows pre-earnings catalyst
Remember, when $SPY sells off, you should the strong companies and hold for a massive move back towards $820+ by year end.
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🇩🇪 Une société allemande fondée en 1976 contrôle le brevet le plus important de la prochaine révolution du packaging semiconducteur. Son titre a progressé de 300 % depuis janvier.
LPKF Laser & Electronics (Xetra: LPK) fabrique des équipements laser de précision depuis cinquante ans. Son activité historique : découpe de PCB, prototypage rapide, panneaux solaires. Son activité future : le traitement du verre pour semiconducteurs avancés.
Le problème que LPKF résout.
Les substrats organiques actuels atteignent leurs limites physiques. Ils se déforment à la chaleur, limitent la densité des interconnexions et ne peuvent pas intégrer de fonctions optiques. La solution industrielle émergente est le substrat en verre : meilleure stabilité dimensionnelle, résistance thermique supérieure, et surtout possibilité d'intégrer des guides d'onde optiques directement dans le substrat pour le CPO.
Problème : le verre est cassant. Percer des vias traversants avec des méthodes classiques crée des micro-fissures. Quand la puce chauffe, le verre se brise.
LPKF a résolu ce problème avec LIDE, Laser Induced Deep Etching. Un procédé laser-chimique qui grave le verre sans contact mécanique, sans micro-fissures, à haute densité. La société détient 300 brevets autour de ce procédé. C'est le seul équipement industriel capable de former des TGV de manière fiable à l'échelle de production. Intel, Samsung et Corning l'utilisent déjà. Part de marché sur le marché coréen des substrats verre : 80 %.
Le double levier CPO.
La prochaine étape de LPKF est d'étendre le LIDE au CPO sur verre. L'idée : utiliser le verre non seulement comme substrat électrique mais comme guide d'onde optique intégré, permettant de connecter les puces entre elles par lumière plutôt que par cuivre à l'intérieur même du package. Corning a présenté à OFC 2026 une démonstration sur panel 515x515mm intégrant 16 composants photoniques et un ASIC sur substrat verre avec interconnexions sous 13mm. LPKF fournit les équipements de traitement.
CA 2025 : 115 millions d'euros. Perte opérationnelle. Les premières commandes de production LIDE sont attendues au Q2 2026. Le marché a anticipé massivement : +300 % depuis janvier.
L'ensemble des analystes qui couvrent le dossier situent les revenus volume sur le substrat verre entre 2027 et 2029. Le marché paye aujourd'hui une option sur dans deux à trois ans.
Ce que dit la direction : "La question n'est plus de savoir si le verre va s'imposer dans l'encapsulation avancée, mais quand le ramp-up va commencer." Objectif de marge opérationnelle double chiffre d'ici 2028.
TSMC évalue le substrat verre pour ses packages CoWoS de prochaine génération. ASE Group, premier OSAT mondial, qualifie les procédés d'assemblage sur verre. Si le substrat verre entre en production de masse chez TSMC d'ici 2028, LPKF devient fournisseur critique de la chaîne d'approvisionnement qui alimente les datacenters IA mondiaux depuis Taiwan.
i can't believe this 1 hour talk by the people who control the world's financial system including Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon & Larry Fink literally told you exactly where the money is going for the next decade: