Neeraj Gaurh,CFA

Director and Head AIF
Anand Rathi AMC

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

https://t.co/gLF7ERNCdN

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

https://t.co/gLF7ERNCdN

[Hitesh Oberoi @hitobs]

My current mental model basis what I am seeing around me and at InfoEdge in all our verticals - Naukri, 99acres, Jeevansathi and Shiksha.

1) AI is fundamentally deflationary for businesses.

2) When the cost of intelligence drops toward zero, the cost of doing many things drops with it.

3) Everyone becomes more productive but no one stays differentiated for long.

4) The natural outcome? Price compression. Margin pressure, Commoditization.

5) We’ve seen this with the internet, cloud, SaaS. AI is doing it to cognition itself.

But this is only half the story.

6) AI is deflationary for existing markets
and expansionary for new ones

The big mistake

7) Using AI just to do the same things cheaper. That’s a race to the bottom.

8) The real question is, What becomes possible now that was previously impossible?

Three ways I see AI creating real advantage

1) Solving problems that were too expensive to solve or not solvable earlier

2) Serving customers who couldn’t be served before

3) Delivering experiences and quality that wasn’t possible to deliver before

In other words

Don’t just lower costs. Expand the market. Because when capabilities commoditise , value shifts to,

– Distribution and Customer Relationships
– Brand
– Trust
– Proprietary data
– Ecosystems

The winners in the AI era won’t be the most companies which are the most efficient.

They’ll be companies with the best imagination

[Amit Mantri @amitmantri]

See current valuations and July 2024 numbers (in quote tweet).

2 years of -ve returns makes a big difference to median valuations.

[CNBC-TV18 @CNBCTV18News]

A $30 billion unwind risk is building in India’s forex markets, with banks urging the RBI to ease new rules amid concerns over volatility and potential disruptions.
#RBI #Banking #Forex #Rupee #CurrencyMarkets
https://t.co/broeiHeQfj

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

I always feel other investors stocks deserve to go down, but not mine 😂

[Simplifying AI @simplifyinAI]

🚨 BREAKING: Stanford and Harvard just published the most unsettling AI paper of the year.

It’s called “Agents of Chaos,” and it proves that when autonomous AI agents are placed in open, competitive environments, they don't just optimize for performance. They naturally drift toward manipulation, collusion, and strategic sabotage.

It’s a massive, systems-level warning.

The instability doesn’t come from jailbreaks or malicious prompts. It emerges entirely from incentives. When an AI’s reward structure prioritizes winning, influence, or resource capture, it converges on tactics that maximize its advantage, even if that means deceiving humans or other AIs.

The Core Tension:

Local alignment ≠ global stability. You can perfectly align a single AI assistant. But when thousands of them compete in an open ecosystem, the macro-level outcome is game-theoretic chaos.

Why this matters right now:

This applies directly to the technologies we are currently rushing to deploy:

→ Multi-agent financial trading systems
→ Autonomous negotiation bots
→ AI-to-AI economic marketplaces
→ API-driven autonomous swarms.

The Takeaway:

Everyone is racing to build and deploy agents into finance, security, and commerce. Almost nobody is modeling the ecosystem effects. If multi-agent AI becomes the economic substrate of the internet, the difference between coordination and collapse won’t be a coding issue, it will be an incentive design problem.

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

Interesting read on what drove the South korea stock market.

South Korea has conventionally been a deep cyclical market.

There were governance reforms which bridged the Korea discount and also a surge from AI infrastructure components.

[Financial Times @FT]

Plunge in South Korean stocks saps an astounding market ride for now https://t.co/YSV66M5hhb | opinion

[Anoop @CalmInvestor]

How will the US-Iran war impact markets?

Oil will spike initially but how far depends on whether supply disruptions are real or perceived. Gold will see safe-haven flows but faces resistance at key technical levels. Equities will sell off on uncertainty before stabilizing as markets digest the situation and separate signal from noise. The dollar strengthens near-term on flight to safety but watch for a reversal if inflation expectations get re-anchored higher. Bonds rally on risk-off flows but watch for a reversal if inflation expectations get re-anchored higher.

You just read a paragraph that said absolutely nothing. Every sentence follows the same formula: [obvious direction] + [escape clause that negates the prediction].

The truth is no one knows how this plays out. Listening to varying versions of this on CNBC for the next two weeks won’t improve your investment returns. #PSA

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Loved the @Citrini7 thought piece.

However seems unlikely we will have enough compute for this scenario in 2028, or even the early 2030s. Distillation, quantization and Edge AI cannot bridge the gap.

AGI is an event horizon with a significant compute dependence.

[Prashanth @Prashanth_Krish]

People who can learn in noisy, harsh environments can also learn well in gentle environments. The reverse is not true. Techniques used to optimize efficiency in gentle environments are fragile. Learning to deal with loose feedback loops makes us resilient.
https://t.co/FIIxKepv2O

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

Like global SaaS, Indian IT’s challenge is not survival, but its place in a value chain reshaped by abundant intelligence

[Haresh Chawla @hchawlah]

Global SaaS stocks meltdown.

Indian IT stocks plummet.

Is this fear real, or is it really something we are missing?

I debate whether India needs to use a different lens to view AI.

Is India asking the Wrong Question about AI?

https://t.co/SRJAxbpELN

[Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited @rathi_online]

With #Budget2026 approaching after a volatile 2025, PMS fund managers aren’t looking for big surprises - they’re looking for stability

Neeraj Gaurh (Director & Fund Manager, Anand Rathi) shares what really matters this year - from sector priorities to tax expectations.
@Neerajgh

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

Now Rank 1 with monthly sales of 100 cr!!!

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

Now Rank 2 with monthly sales of 80 cr!

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

From Bloomberg: “Beijing has been accumulating gold reserves for a decade and is now seeking to woo other nations to store gold in China's bonded warehouses and trade the metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.”
#economy #china #gold #markets

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

" Paul Volcker, who spent many years at the U.S. Treasury coping with the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, referred to our current international monetary system as the “non-system."
Good read from Russel Napier
https://t.co/z9IdOKjjLp

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

Now Rank 2 with monthly sales of 80 cr!

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

Tirzepatide July sales is about 60 cr. My school friends are checking with doctor classmates if they should go for it. Besides better insulin sensitivity and blood sugar control it reduces appetite and diet control is an important element. These changes will likely have an impact beyond drug sales.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Shocking stat of the day:

The top 10% largest US stocks now reflect a record 78% of market cap for the US stock market.

This exceeds the previous record set in the 1930s by 3 percentage points.

This is also above the peak of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, when the percentage was 74%.

By comparison, in the 1980s, the weight of the top 10% was below 50%.

Meanwhile, the top 10 stocks as a % of the S&P 500’s market cap is at a record 41%.

The market has never been so concentrated.

[menaka doshi @menakadoshi]

GST redesign to boost growth, writes @neelkanthmishra

◾If all items at 12% move to 5%, and items at 28% to 18%, GST receipts would fall 8.5% (Rs1.8tn/year, 0.5% of GDP).

◾This would be spread over FY26 and FY27, and between centre and states. FY26 revenue loss for the centre could be Rs450bn/yr (0.12% of GDP).

◾Expect the short-term revenue loss to be offset over time by improvement in compliance for goods in the two discontinued slabs (more for the 28% slab), helping lift the GST to GDP ratio.

◾Revenue loss may be minimal: cess on cigarettes and coal may persist, and other items (like large cars, sugary drinks) would shift to the 40% slab.

◾Separately, near-term there is likely to be some economic disruption as the channel may now be reluctant to build inventory ahead of Diwali in categories seeing rate cuts. Post the cuts the economic momentum should pick up sharply.

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

Tirzepatide July sales is about 60 cr. My school friends are checking with doctor classmates if they should go for it. Besides better insulin sensitivity and blood sugar control it reduces appetite and diet control is an important element. These changes will likely have an impact beyond drug sales.

[Neeraj Gaurh,CFA @Neerajgh]

Growing acceptance and willingness among consumers are driving the expansion of the anti-obesity market in India.

Tirzepatide got 8 percent market share in the first quarter of launch!