Neighbor

AI · Crypto · Stocks · Tech · Science · AIModel · Model — everything that moves money and ideas. And also stories of self-made people, and why it actually works

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@KyleDeWriter if it really competes with HFT bots that’s massivvvv

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@xJellybon why do you think LTCM is the ultimate cautionary tale compared to 2008?

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

Benoit Mandelbrot, mathematician, IBM Fellow, father of fractal geometry: "Markets often leap, don't glide."

That's the whole complaint, and it took him forty years of data to prove it. Every VaR model, every Black-Scholes greek, every "six-sigma event" headline assumes price changes behave like a bell curve — independent, well-behaved, thin-tailed. The paper underneath this is free too: "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," 1963, sitting in any library search bar.

At the board it's simple. Standard finance calls this "mild" randomness — like a casino, where outcomes vary but average out predictably. Mandelbrot's data, starting with a century of cotton prices, showed something else: the sequence of price changes was random and unpredictable, but independent of scale — daily and monthly curves matched. Strip the axis labels off a chart of daily returns and one of monthly returns and you can't tell them apart. Wall Street's core models have no room for that property.

Here's the number that should have ended the argument. If daily Dow Jones moves from 1916 to 2003 really followed a bell curve, you'd expect 58 days where the index moved more than 3.4%. There were 1,001. You'd expect 6 days beyond 4.5%. There were 366. Moves beyond 7% were supposed to happen once every 300,000 years — the 20th century alone produced 48 of them.

That's not a paradox. That's the gap between the model everyone was trained on and the market everyone actually trades in.

Which is exactly why treating a fat-tailed market as Gaussian manufactures false confidence, not safety. Long-Term Capital Management ran two Nobel laureates and still blew up in 1998 pricing risk this way — a "once in a millennium" move showed up and took the fund with it. Get the tails wrong and you're certain to be blindsided by something the model told you was impossible. Get it right, and you size and hedge assuming the rare event, the way people who actually survived 1987 and 2008 did — not the way a model built on 100-year-old physics says to.

The math is free and public. What nobody can sell you is the judgment to look at a calm market and remember it's one fat-tailed draw away from wild. That judgment is the edge, and it takes years to build.

[Rossst.03 @Rossst_03]

https://t.co/iZLuBLz082

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@xwhynoted the math is broken, incredible story

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@Amir_Radarit people buy a familiar face, even if it's digital. why not?

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@xJellybon damodaran’s logic is undefeated ...

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@gaboweb3 selling the outcome
not the tech

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@DenlitL Hot water is probably in the tub

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@fort1kkk If a token ever comes the people using Base naturally will probably be in a better position than those who arrive after the announcementt

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@twelvepills12 bigger win is optimizing context

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@XXIfomo Engelbart built the future we just pay rent for it 🫡🫡

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@vladoqp the greatest and wisest people in the world

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@Zeras_24 look for the builders lock in and just be patient😅

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@KyleDeWriter can they sustain this volume post-election?

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@0xkkai real, spent months tweaking my Notion

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@Takerovitch Wild 🤯

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

Two numbers. That's the entire strategy. No spreadsheets, no models, no 40-page thesis — just return on capital and earnings yield, ranked against every stock on the market. And it beat every fund on the planet for ten years straight.

Most of Wall Street builds complexity to justify a fee. Greenblatt did the opposite. He took two variables — how good a business is, and how cheap it is — and let the ranking do the work. No macro calls. No timing the market. No conviction bets on a CEO's vision. Just a formula simple enough to explain on a napkin, and disciplined enough that almost no one actually sticks with it.

That's the part people miss. The formula isn't hard to understand. It's hard to hold — because it tells you to buy the ugly stocks everyone else is selling, and wait. Here's 90 seconds on why that simplicity is exactly what makes it work:

[Isa @isssa0x]

50% a year. 10 years in a row. One partner. $7 million in starting capital. No active fund on the planet has ever matched that combination before or in the 40 years since. And the person who set the record walked into a Columbia lecture hall in 2005 and spent 68 minutes explaining exactly how he did it.

His name is Joel Greenblatt. Gotham Capital opened in 1985 and, for 10 straight years, returned 50% a year. In 1994 he returned all outside capital and closed the fund to non-partners. Not because it blew up. Because scale kills his strategy, and he said so out loud.

He then spent 20+ years teaching at Columbia Business School, and allowed one of his lectures to be filmed. On the board in chalk he lays out how to think about a stock, not as a ticker, but as a piece of a business. P/E 20 vs 30. EPS $3 vs $4. Book value $50, trading at $35. The Magic Formula in two steps: high return on capital plus high earnings yield. Two numbers. One principle. Everything else is just consequences.

Warren Buffett personally endorsed his book "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" as one of the best investment books ever written. Citadel pays portfolio managers $5-10 million a year to return 20-30% annually. Greenblatt returned 50% a year, out of a small office in Manhattan, with one partner.

The course this lecture came from admits only 25 students a year by application. An MBA at Columbia costs $250,000 over two years. The lecture has been free on YouTube since 2005. And in 20 years, almost none of its millions of viewers have watched it to the end.

The gap between the people who listened to those 68 minutes carefully and the people who closed the tab at minute 15 is not measured in percent. It's measured in whether you understand why 99% of active managers on the planet lose to the S&P 500.

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@isssa0x everyone loves to overcomplicate things, but it all comes down to simple common sense and patience

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

@reaperbeven yep

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

She bought an $80,000 sports car not because she worked in tech or had a million followers. She simply filmed her feet in stilettos pressing down on the gas pedal with a GoPro.

Welcome to the world of Pedal Pumping—one of the highest-paying and least obvious micro-niches in fetish content. There’s no nudity or "dirty" requests here, just the roar of powerful engines, high heels, and five-figure paychecks.

Here is how this business works from the inside:

⚙️ Order Mechanics: What Are They Really Paying $300 for a 3-Minute Clip For?

In this niche, clients aren't just buying foot aesthetics; they're paying for a combination of sound, muscle tension, and automotive flair:

Props and Setup: The camera is mounted right down in the footwell near the pedals of a sports car (anything from a lowered BMW to a classic Mustang).

Specific Guidelines: Clients request very precise actions. For example: "slowly press the clutch in vintage heels," "rev the engine in neutral so it roars," or "pretend the car is stalling and you're trying to restart it."
The Price Tag: For a short 3-minute video featuring crisp engine audio and a clear macro shot of the foot on the pedal, buyers pay anywhere from $150 to $400.
🎯 Why Is This Niche More Effective Than Classic Foot Photos?

Dual Audience: Car enthusiasts and foot lovers overlap here. This is a high-income demographic that is more than willing to pay for their specific hobbies.

High Barrier to Entry: Anyone can snap a photo of their foot on a couch, but owning a nice car, setting up professional lighting near the pedals, and comfortably driving in heels? Very few can. Less competition means higher prices.

Total Comfort for the Model: No dirt, no sweaty socks, and no creepy messaging. It looks and feels just like shooting a stylish clip for an automotive magazine.

[Neighbor @Neighboritto]

https://t.co/jiQsI7yKSF