Capital Consigliere

buy side PM. i tweet about markets.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

This is such great advice and so relatable as a fund manager. When you are shooting the lights out, KEEP SHOOTING. If you are in the flow state, you are doing something that other managers aren't (alpha). You can't learn/teach this dynamic in the CFA. You just have to know when you are hot or cold - when to get aggressive and when to dial things back.

[ Q-Cap  @qcapital2020]

This clip is so relevant now. Such an easy concept that's laid out by Druck but probably the hardest to actually execute at least for myself

When you're up big the tendency is to always scale back instead of pressing the gas even more

Knowing when you're hot or cold

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@qcapital2020 @DudeWhoInvests What do they need to execute on? Doesn't seem very hard to me. Sell their user data to the AI labs for a premium. Their advertising business has already found the special sauce. All they need to execute on is just don't fuck it up lol. Everything already works $RDDT

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

It's all about the direction of the MOAT. Its everchanging. Always fluid. Never static. This piece of information moves the $AVGO MOAT in the wrong direction.

[Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive @PythiaR]

My understading is ~all hyperscalers have multiple ASIC programs, and many ASIC programs have multi-sourcing particularly at large volumes.

Makes for a bad narrative, and maybe correct to question $AVGO competitive advantage over time (rising competition is never good for stocks), but $GOOG partnering with Mediatek for parts of TPU doesn't 1) mean they're replacing $AVGO or 2) mean that substantial volume is at risk of moving.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

Resurfacing this. All you need to know for the next transition inside the datacenter regarding networking.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

Whoever cracks CPO first is going to be a trillion dollar company.

The TAM for optics is relatively small compared to what it could be in 5 years. The reason for that is data transmission inside the datacenter primarily only uses light/optics for row-to-row connectivity.

Eventually there will be rack-to-rack data transmission using light, and then eventually chip-to-chip. The content share skyrockets at each layer.

Row-to-row is pretty much a 1-1 opportunity. Rack-to-rack is much greater. There are dozens of racks inside a row, which will all be connected by lasers instead of copper. CPO will allow chip-to-chip connectivity to explode content share even further. NVDA will eventually have 500+ GPUs inside one single rack. Each chip will be connected via optical lasers.

You go from one unit of optical transceivers for R-2-R, to 500+ for C-2-C. The TAM explodes.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

Brother in christ this is going so much higher $RDDT

[Za @ZaStocks]

$RDDT CEO dropped a bomb on an AMA yesterday that the market might be waking up to.

Reddit’s data is invaluable for AI labs, the market hasn’t caught on yet.

“Foundational models benefit from Reddit in pre training, post training, grounding, and search because our authentic human perspective is increasingly rare.

That’s why people are increasingly looking to Reddit for real opinions and real experiences - and why Reddit content is the #1 cited source across LLMs.

No other data source can replicate the continuously-generated, community-curated, preference-labeled map of how humans actually communicate and make judgments.

These partnerships are meaningful to us and to our partners, and it’s important to us to have partnerships that capture the value only Reddit can bring.”

That sounds like big deals are coming.

S&P 500 inclusion (if not this quarter then next), data licensing deal renewals, and the Anthropic litigation settlement are on the horizon.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

$RDDT strong leadership both yesterday and today vs $IGV

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@Midnight_Captl I would love to see 80%. Just haven't read anything about that increasing from here. I also think there is certain "ceiling" or "threshold" on GMs where you don't piss off the hyperscalers too much. My two cents...

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@Midnight_Captl Look at who's stock prices? All I said was that Jensen/Colette commentary seems like they believe 75% is a healthy number. Did SA put out a piece saying higher GMs for VR?

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@Midnight_Captl Not set in stone, but listening to Jensen's and Colette's commentary/tone over the years they feel the 75% is a good barometer for "everyone to eat" in the supply chain.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

I do actually think $MRVL will hit 1T. Jensen is taking them along for the ride. Being attached to $NVDA volumes is a dream scenario. It looks like $MRVL will have a lot of content share on $NVDA racks in the coming years as CPO becomes the only option for quicker connectivity. I also think this is Jensen's way of saying "F-U" to $AVGO for the ASIC competition.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@JerryCap On pace for largest M&A year on record. Yes please

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@JerryCap It actually make me even more bullish that nobody likes this one. To me, the bull case is so easily visible it only strengthens my conviction.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

$RDDT S&P inclusion more imminent. Not part of my thesis, but getting added would provide passive flows which historically the stock has never had.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

$MRVL CEO Matt Murphy just laid out the where the industry is going for Datacenter connectivity.

COPPER ----> OPTICS

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@TechEquityEng Bullish af

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@amitisinvesting Huge part of the port

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

Look, I get it. Why invest in $META when memory/networking/servers/CPUs are fucking ripping? Quite clear this one is being used as a funding short for the bottleneck trade.

All I gotta say is only one side of the trade is DURABLE. Let the bottleneck boys make their money now in this raging bull market (hell I even have exposure here too) but $META is setup well for decades of returns. Hoping this goes sub 6 to make even larger position.

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@SupBagholder Funding short for the bottleneck trade. I'll keep buying here

[Capital Consigliere @Networthknowing]

@ZaStocks Not a chartist, but I love the story here. I initiated a position today $RDDT.