Hume

Vegan and Conservative Party Member. Retail trader.

[Joel Berry @JoelWBerry]

My goodness. One of the best things I’ve ever heard. Bravo.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Rick Rule: The Iran oil spike was temporary... the next one will be structural.

The oil industry is a cyclical, capital-intensive business with clear boom-and-bust cycles.

--Low prices lead to underinvestment.
- Underinvestment leads to supply shortages.
- Supply shortages lead to high prices.

We are currently still in the underinvestment part of the cycle.

The industry has been underinvesting in sustaining capital by roughly $1B/day.

Cumulatively, we're talking about roughly $1.5T of underinvestment. On top of that, the war has exacerbated this chronic lack of investment.

Meanwhile, global decline rates have doubled over the past 2 decades. We are now losing roughly 6 mbpd of production every year.

In other words, we need to replace the equivalent of roughly 50% of US oil production annually just to maintain current global production.

At the same time, we're barely looking for new oil fields. Annual oil & gas discoveries have fallen sharply over the past decades:

- Down 60% since 2010
- Down ~90% since 1960

When we do find new fields, it takes much longer to bring them online:

- 1990-1999: ~14 years
- 2020-2024: ~19 years

And the fields we discover? They are also getting smaller:

- 1970s avg: 150 Mboe
- 2010s avg: 40 Mboe

The combination of these factors means there are no quick fixes for the coming supply shortfall.

The next oil crisis won't be caused by a temporary geopolitical shock.

It'll be the result of decades of underinvestment finally catching up with the industry.

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

We, the people, need to demand an end to our dependency on the state. No public healthcare, no public education, no state pension system, no agricultural and energy subsidies. Remove prohibitive legislation on building new nuclear.
We need an environment free of the apparatus of socialism\communism.

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

Ukraine v Russia conflict paused due to depleted U.S. ammunition stockpiles. U.S. v Iran war paused for the same reason. There is no quick resolution without American boots on the ground. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for several years there are no global oil inventories left when it reopens.

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

@HFI_Research How high can this go before crude moves with it?

[Francesco 🇮🇹 @SaP011]

It’s over. Italian Mario Roggero, 72 years old, has been sentenced to 14 years and 9 months in prison (and to a multi-million-euro compensation payout to the robbers’ families), effectively a life sentence at his age.

A hardworking, law-abiding man who worked for 49 years without a single crime on his record. Now he faces jail for killing the robbers who attacked his family.

He protected his wife and daughter from three violent thugs who had beaten and terrorized them. After yet another brutal robbery, he chased them into the street with his gun, killing two and wounding the third.

The shooting happened after the robbers had left the shop and were fleeing, which is why the courts rejected the claim of full legitimate self-defense.
However, Mario maintains that he feared they might return or that they had taken his wife.

This is the Italian justice system, a complete disgrace and a shameful failure.

[Merry Poppins @MerryPoppins56]

@SaP011 @StealthyStoat Italians are going to have to decide what kind of country they want.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

On Wednesday, not a single oil or gas tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz

This isn't even news anymore

Perhaps we should just all sit back and relax till we hit tank bottoms and then figure things out from there

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

@ARottenOldOne @DarioCpx U.S. has run out of missiles or it wouldn't have agreed to the MOU. U.S. is buying time in Iran and Ukraine to replenish it munitions stockpile.
Does China at the behest of America start dumping it's 1.4bn barrels of oil inventory onto the global market?

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

Since March, Japan has withdrawn anywhere between 70-100mb from it's 263mb oil inventories. If the Strait is still closed this time next year, then they are out of inventory. Daily oil consumption for Japan is 3mb/d.

If you have a subscription to anyone who tracks global oil inventories you will be able to predict when the levee breaks.

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

@VeganVPF @VeganCampOut Couldn't agree more.

[Johnny Oberg @JohnOberg]

This #chicken running up to welcome her family home is just absolutely adorable. 🧡 #loveALLanimals

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

@AlanJLSmith The only long term way out of this is voluntary childlessness. Many, globally, have already figured this out.

An immediate end to the NHS, public education, state pension and a privatised BBC, plus an end to agricultural and energy subsidies is what is needed.

[Robin Monotti @robinmonotti]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr explains the Ukraine war in terms that are never seen in Western journalism, but why can't anyone else say this?

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

@DarioCpx Morgan Stanley has global onshore oil inventory draws of 4.8mb/d while Goldman Sach has 7.1mb/d for April alone.

[Hume @NewAgePagan]

@SmartMoneyyAI @KobeissiLetter Get it out of the ground yourself and refine it while you're at it.

[Dr. Sheila Nazarian @sheilanazarian]

I want to ask the students screaming “Death to America”, do you have any idea what happens when American values die?

Because I do.

My family fled Iran, a country where freedom died. You don’t know what you have until it’s gone.

You think America is oppressive because you have never experienced real oppression.

You think silence is violence because you’ve never been silenced.

You think words are dangerous because you have never watched a government drag someone away for speaking them.

You think capitalism is evil because you have never stood in a bread line.

You think borders are immoral because you have never had to flee across one.

You think revolution is romantic because you have never had a revolution take everything from you.

I have.

And that’s why I refuse to be quiet.