Doug

Liberal, life long New Englander, gamer, lover of comics, movies, TV, and New England sports. Member of the politically aware electorate. He/Him.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

@PA_Supremacist It's also really frustrating because Talarico and Crockett were friends in the Texas State House, to the point where Talarico asked her if she was going to run before declaring his candidacy because he didn't want to run against a friend.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

@PA_Supremacist What's really frustrating is that if she *really* wants to help down ballot candidates, she'd help Talarico. Republicans only won the House vote by 3.44 because down ballot Dems road Beto's coattails. If she were to help Talarico she'd help down ballot.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

Wow... so fucking petty. Talarico needs to get out the Black vote and Crockett could help with that. But her ego won't allow her to help the candidate who beat her. Keep in mind, Talarico and Crockett were friends in the Texas State House, you'd think she'd want to help him.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) tells The Dallas Morning News she doesn't know whether she would support Talarico's campaign for US Senate in Texas

Crockett: “I have no idea. I am more focused on down-ballot races in general.”

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

@cluckerbuck1 @ChazNuttycombe It's possible, but so far polling has Barnes ahead of Rodriguez pretty comfortably. At the end of the day, Barnes just has more name recognition a lot of money on hand for the final push and I think that gives him the edge.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

God, Hegseth is such a fucking racist, misogynistic, homophobic asshole.

[Greg Jaffe @GregJaffe]

A Black Admiral's Promotion Seemed Like a Given. Hegseth Blocked It Anyway
He has blocked the promotions of more than 40 officers. Women and minority leaders account for 50 percent of those removed.

https://t.co/zehPD822kH

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

@ChazNuttycombe This is the correct take. But I think it'll either be Barnes (name recognition and only lost by 1 point in 2022 against an incumbent in a Republican midterm) or Rodriguez, they just have more cash on hand than Hong.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

As @madrid_mike has stated many times, Hispanics care more about the economy than most other demos. I doubt they care about "masculinity". It's a losing strategy. He should be focusing on the Trump-Beto-Biden-Trump voters in the 'burbs so they don't pull the lever for Talarico.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

WSJ: Texas Senate Race Turns Into a Battle Over Who Is More of a Man

GOP’s Paxton is trying to appeal to Hispanic voters by questioning masculinity of Democratic rival Talarico

https://t.co/SN6ur7uRwo

[Brian Rosenwald @brianros1]

Just a monumentally selfish blunder by Bankhead not to drop out.

[WarFronts | Fronts.co @WarFrontsWeekly]

This won’t get old.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

So no meaningful statistical change from their last poll (D+5)? Really hope we get higher quality polling soon. QPac, Marist, somebody, anybody.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Quantus poll | 6/16-6/17 LV

Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 47%
🟥Republican 43%
——
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 56%
✅Approve 43%

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

@StoolGreenie But how could Boston afford JT, JB, and Giannis? It'd be one hell of a big three, but I don't think Boston could afford it.

[Justin Case @justincbzz]

Stupid shit for stupid shit people

[Josh Turek @turek4iowa]

I’m proud to have the support of the Iowa Federation of Labor and six of Iowa’s largest labor unions — representing more than 100,000 Iowa workers.

In the Senate, I will fight to strengthen our unions, protect collective bargaining rights, cut taxes for the middle class, and ensure every Iowan has access to affordable health care and housing.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

So despite Rogers having higher name recognition he still can't creak 45%? That bodes poorly for him.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Zenith Research poll | 6/11-6/14 LV

US Senate Michigan 2026

🟦Abdul El-Sayed 45%
🟥Mike Rogers 42%
——
🟦Mallory McMorrow 44%
🟥Mike Rogers 42%
——
🟦Haley Stevens 43%
🟥Mike Rogers 42%

https://t.co/NIirbA4tzT

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

Kemp would have had to go against Ossoff, that's not a surefire win.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Gave away a Senate seat where you easily would've been nominated just to get 1% in Iowa award:

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

@BasedIllinoisan Sadly there probably are people who think that without looking at the context around the race.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

Rarely do I agree with Cassidy or any Republican for that matter, but he's right.

[U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. @SenBillCassidy]

Reagan is rolling over in his grave. Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.

Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

The reported MOU to reopen Hormuz, highly favorable to Iran, is the least bad outcome for the US after Trump's disastrous decision for war -- and it illustrates how big a mistake the war was.

On net, the war hurt the U.S. in two major ways.

1.) The U.S. bargaining position with Iran is now worse off, because militarily, the U.S. underperformed and Iran overperformed compared to Trump's prewar expectations (which in my view were always mistaken).

That itself is tied to two factors:
A. Massive U.S. airpower did not succeed in quickly toppling the Iranian regime, which spoiled the president's theory of victory circa day 3 of the war. Once the conflict bogged down into a war of attrition, Iran had the upper hand, because of its superior resolve.

For Iran, the war is about survival, while for the U.S., it's an "excursion." This is the essence of asymmetric conflict and why militarily powerful countries often lose wars against weaker nations more willing to absorb the costs of fighting.

The fact that the balance of resolve favored Iran was knowable in advance -- and *many* analysts argued this prewar.

B. Iran tangibly demonstrated its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz by suppressing nearly all traffic simply through the threat of its missiles and drones. Before the war, its leverage was theoretical and latent. Now, it has been fully realized and cannot be undone, because it rests on geography and prevailing military technology -- i.e. cheap and plentiful missiles and drones.

Before, the U.S. thought it could threaten and ultimately fight a quick regime change war to reset Iran's negotiating position or perhaps induce Iran's full capitulation, without costs to the oil market. The conduct of the war proves that was a fantasy.

Iran's superior bargaining position is concretely reflected in the MOU. Iran gets immediate oil sanctions waivers and unfrozen assets ($3 billion of which might have already been transferred by the UAE according to reports) -- just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear negotiations. Those are big chits the U.S. has handed in, already, to get roughly back to the prewar status quo.

2.) The war also hurt the U.S. because it was costly in U.S. lives, treasure and materiel.
- 13 U.S. soldiers died and at least 400 have been wounded (likely the injury count is higher but the Pentagon has been cagey about providing updated numbers).
- High-end U.S. munitions have been dangerously depleted, hurting U.S. readiness across all theaters, perhaps for years
- Budgetary costs of the war could exceed $1 trillion accounting for veteran's health claims and borrowing costs, according to Linda Bilmes at Harvard
- Even if oil resumes prewar flows immediately (it won't), the baked in economic damage is substantial. U.S. inflation in May, for example, reached 4.2% thanks to elevated oil prices.
- Global oil inventories have been dangerously depleted, making the whole system more vulnerable to any disruptions going forward.

And even still ... it's not clear if the MOU will go through, as Israel continues to occupy and attack Lebanon. So even this level of progress is quite fragile.

Trump never should have launched this reckless war -- and it's incumbent on all of us to learn the right lessons from it, namely that what's achievable through U.S. military power is inherently limited, and U.S. meddling in the Middle East tends to worsen outcomes, not improve them.

[Doug @NewEnglandDLM]

@Philzer7 @BasedIllinoisan I concede that he's a better candidate than Moreno, but his incumbency wasn't earned, it was given to him. Ohioans didn't elect him to that seat.