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IMF cuts Sri Lanka's medium-term Foreign Reserve projections
With recent Middle East tensions and their ripple effect on Sri Lanka, IMF has revised its projections for Gross International Reserves (GIR).
Contrary to what many experts and the media suggest, GIR is not a target. It's a projection made by @IMFNews. The actual target is not GIR, but NIR (Net International Reserves).
Summary of the GIR Projection Revisions
• Good: 2025 actual GIR was at USD 6,838 Mn, USD 288 Mn (+4%) above the projection
• Bad: 2026 GIR revised down by USD 239 Mn (-3%) to USD 8,645 Mn
• Ugly: 2027 GIR revised down by USD 1,592 Mn (-12%) to USD 11,779 Mn
Despite a higher 2025 starting base, 2026 is revised down and 2027 cut deeper still.
IMF sees reserves rising, but at a slower pace.
This is a stark reminder of how a single external shock can ripple through an economy for years to come.
If you are interested to know the story behind the cut in GIR, pls comment below. I will write a follow-up post, if there's significant interest.
#lka #IMF
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