thefakenick

1k to 54k on Polymarket. Ex quant

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

Traded the Eng vs Arg match this morning and had my most profitable day on Polymarket. My bot is working great and very glad I hedged my position once England went 1-0 up. Makes the consecutive wake ups for 5am games worth it

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@tsybka @PolymarketTrade This is solid and could be +EV but two things to consider is that this is by far the best defence he’s faced this WC and there’s a relatively small sample size of international matches (MLS has significantly worst defences and tactics)

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@heeney_luke As a fellow Australian at an MBB the optionality in x years time is what’s keeping me around . Hoping it’s worth it

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

Was Arg’s performance really that bad? Pre-game they were 18% to win and 75% to qualify…so now they’ve qualified they should be at 24%. They’re at 19%, I sniped 40k shares and hedged so this hurts. I understand they went to ET so fairs slightly decrease but Eng only dropped 1%

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@TheVeryLucky888 Congrats! Well deserved

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

Pretty vindicating when hours of work, iteration and backtesting starts to pay off.
My new bot is significantly quicker whilst maintaining the same level of accuracy with signals. Got two great snipes off today and the ones I missed were due to poor parameter selection mid-game

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@_onlyscott John-Obi Mikel

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@InvertTheWing No Spain defenders when they haven’t conceded a goal all tournament

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@TheGreekTrader @PolymarketSport This was a very poor market to begin with, very high likelihood that it would end up in a dispute. I have no position but would prefer to be on the NO side atp , the burden of proof lies on the yes holders and there doesn’t seem to be any fully convincing evidence

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@startedsIow Message me on discord ‘thefakenick’

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

Really love the new rule from FIFA about players covering their mouths and it should go a long way in reducing racism. May have some problems with it being weaponised when players cover their mouth when not saying anything problematic but I hope not

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@startedsIow Hey, feel free to message me

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@tsybka Probably someone just trying to troll and lock up whales funds for 3 days in a 99.9 bond

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@Nik_Poly Agreed, fairs probably around 5-6c. Pace of scoring has already been very high and will undoubtedly slow down as knockouts progress and the weak teams are out

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@TheVeryLucky888 The fair value calc for shares is bugging had one of my positions marked at 0.5c whilst the market was [email protected]

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@TheVeryLucky888 Creates some weird situations where team C winning can flip the order between team A and B if they are all on the same points

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@neet_sol Mine is 14 hours of excel and making pretty PowerPoints :( #mbb

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

Someone left a 100k+ shares 12c bid for Algeria to win their World Cup group during their match after Argentina went 1-0 ahead. Locked in 1.5k of profit with a simple hedge during the match

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

Sportsbet forgetting to update their odds AFTER USA beat Paraguay today. Not going to hedge yet and wait if it gets voided. Wish I could’ve put more on but didn’t want to trigger manual review by crossing risk limits (also put 1k for USA winning group at 2.3)

[thefakenick @NicholasD76949]

@MonteCarloSpam True, I’m pretty short Switzerland rn so wouldn’t mind this