Nika A

[Nika A @NickA229]

@MSforA1 @academic_la @IhabHassane Curbing of Hezbollah, Lebanese Shias having a more constructive political outlet that respects Lebanese sovereignty and state, among other things. From Israel's experience, de-occupation only works if there's a pragmatic, trustworthy authority willing to make peace with you.

[Nika A @NickA229]

@academic_la @IhabHassane Shaiel, it's important to get the cause and effect part right. Egypt's Nasser turning south Lebanon into a launchpad for militia activities against Israel in Cairo agreement of 1969 ended the two decades of effective peace between Lebanon and Israel. That's the root cause.

[Nika A @NickA229]

@Frugal_Saver @tomaas26 @policytensor They'd need Belarus for that, and Lukashenko doesn't want to get involved in that. He has an impeccable instinct on where the wild is blowing, and him wanting to jump the ship is the most telling thing. Whatever Karaganov's and Mearsheimer's psyop is about, the picture is evident

[Nika A @NickA229]

@Frugal_Saver @tomaas26 @policytensor Naah. Using tactical nukes has no military utility, due to the nature of this frontline, but politics & IR-wise it's a terrible choice on balance. Using strategic nukes is basically ruled out. So nukes are essentially useless for Russia here. They need Belarus and Luka is against

[Jason Blakely @jasonwblakely]

"Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king."
- Bob Dylan, Infidels

(Dylan is a relentlessly Augustinian writer)

[Nika A @NickA229]

@APHClarkson Given the extreme extent of depoliticizarion and detachment from politics among Russians (as a coping mechanism that leads to the delusional "why are you bombing Moscow, what did we ever do to you" kinda pleas), that wouldn't be surprising at all.

[Nika A @NickA229]

@colwight He is the scary future, a glaring example of the upcoming stock of post-truth authoritarian populist politicians in the decade to come.

[Nika A @NickA229]

@IAPonomarenko This is a perfect example of every accusation effectively being a confession.

[Ava @noampomsky]

as claude puts it, it’s because “the energy spent avoiding pain doesn’t prevent pain, it just delays and often amplifies it, because the underlying thing never actually gets resolved, just deferred with interest”

[Heidi Priebe ⛰️☀️ @HeidiPriebe1]

You *have* to be charitability-maxxing in your (low-stakes) assumptions of other people, it's such a life hack.

That person taking a while to text me back? Maybe they're nervous and trying to get the text right!

That person I find attractive? Maybe they find me attractive too and have been hoping that I would reach out!

That person who wronged me? Maybe they're sorry and are taking some time to sort through their thoughts before re-engaging.

If we assume incorrectly, oh well - we had some time enjoying a pleasant delusion.

If we're right, we show up with energy that's ready to receive the awesome thing.

But most often, the warmth, receptivity & generosity we're holding **is the thing that ends up shaping our interactions with the person in a positive direction at all.**

So many of the above things become true, even if they weren't to start with. Pascal's wager of relationality, or something.

[Nika A @NickA229]

@HeidiPriebe1 Yeah, Pascal's wager. I like your application of it. It was also mentioned in Eric Rohmer's A Tale of Winter, in relation to faith in god. Great movie btw.

[Nika A @NickA229]

@phl43 You're right. Trump doesn't have steady beliefs, only dispositional states. Putin does have those beliefs and with unchecked power, it even took a quasi-mystical turn about Russia's destiny and so on. But friction with reality will come at some point, he's become way too deluded

[Vlad Vexler @VladVexler]

For Western civilisation not to implode politically, we need to return to the idea that your views about politics, society, and art are not your identity.

Your views don’t define who you are. They inform who you are. But they do so at the level of your character, not your identity.

Unlike identity, character can evolve. Being asked to give up your identity is an attack on you, being asked to evolve your character is not.

This has a completely surreal consequence: everyone wants to have an opinion on everything. If opinions are identity, then having an opinion on everything is an essential way of locating yourself in the world.

This turns human conversation into an absurd “I’ll show you mine, and you can show me yours” ritual. A ritual of self-expression takes the place of engaging with the world and engaging with others, and precludes growth.

[Nika A @NickA229]

@colwight This happens when the head of the most powerful country is a person with a severe psychopathology (NPD) which is accelerated & intensified by his alleged neurodivergence (ADHD) and this occurs within the processes of global democratic decline and surging revolutionary monarchism

[Nika A @NickA229]

@jdub @noampomsky Maybe wherewithal would be a better term than backbone here

[Ava @noampomsky]

you can understand literally everything intellectually and know exactly what you should do but none of it matters if you haven't developed the emotional backbone yet

[Nika A @NickA229]

@MaxNighswander @akarlin I think you're onto something. Probably the smartest thing for China is to proceed non-kinetically re Taiwan and try to bring it closer by other means. Jumping into a war could very much turn it into another Kyiv in 3 days or operation Epic Fury kinda disaster.

[Lily @lily_choudhury_]

William Zinsser taught writing at Yale, then wrote the book that has fixed more bad writing than every English class combined.

Here are 10 cuts from "On Writing Well" that instantly make your writing twice as strong.

1) Delete every word doing no work

[Nika A @NickA229]

@BrianMcDonaldIE @battleforeurope Moscow simply lost the Cold War. This strategic defeat was never properly processed or dealt with. Instead, the hardliners and imperialists in Russia (Putin included) schizophrenically tried to pretend this defeat never happened, they wanted to continue as a big empire as usual.

[Nika A @NickA229]

@Glenn_Diesen @battleforeurope Putin had already brought the war to European territory for quite a while, if you haven't been paying attention or were completely detached from reality all this while