Nick Bogle

Leading economic indicators, yield curve, and decoding the VIX

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

The residential housing market may be facing challenges going forward. Months supply of homes reached 10.3 months from the May report. That is the highest reading in 15 years. Also, new construction starts reported the lowest reading in six years at 1,177k

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🛢️🚨Shell, in a single day:

-Pauses its $3B share buyback.
-Prepares to sell $1B of offshore wind farms.
-Pushes toward closing a $16.4B gas acquisition, its biggest deal in a decade.

That's one company telling you its thesis.

💰The deal:

The ARC Resources acquisition is Shell's largest since BG in 2016 and the logic is geographic.

ARC's gas sits next to Shell's fields feeding LNG Canada (Shell: 40%).

LNG Canada ships to Asia without touching Hormuz, Suez OR Panama. The shortest safe route on the map.

Why Shell needs it?

Shell's quiet problem are aging fields and dwindling reserves.
Analysts said it needed a big discovery or a big deal.
It chose the deal paid 75% in shares, at a 20% premium.

When a supermajor pays up with its own equity, it's telling you which assets it thinks outlast the cycle.

Same day: wind farms for sale, India renewables under review, buyback already cut from $3.5B to preserve cash after war-related strain.

Under Sawan, Shell isn't an "energy company" anymore. It's becoming a gas-and-LNG machine with an oil business attached.

Follow the full year: Gunvor buys US shale gas.

Shell signs in Venezuela, blocks rivals at Browse, now $16.4B for Canadian gas while selling wind.

The biggest players have stopped debating the transition's pace.

They're positioning for a long gas era.

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

CPI printed 4.2% year over year increase for May. Markets are responding by rotating into consumer staples and energy.

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

Very important video to watch.

[Jay Martin @JayMartinBC]

Japan invented nearly every tool central banks now reach for.

Zero rates → 1999
QE → 2001
Yield curve control → 2016

Its debt is now ~240% of GDP. Double the US.

Japan's reckoning is unfolding right now — and America is walking the same path, a decade behind. Here's my take 👇

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

What strikes me about this market crash today is the 2yr treasury yield rising. In general you would see a flight to safety, headed toward treasuries. However, the strong jobs report coupled with high energy costs makes this an inflation risk signal, fed can’t cut.

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

@TedPillows LNG infrastructure

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

@Vivek4real_ There is no more excess stimulus money looking for outsized returns

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

@calvinfroedge Big money left for the Hamptons

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

@wallstreetbets US Nat Gas can’t stay essentially free forever

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

@DudeWhoInvests That is the exit liquidity coming in.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Reminder

Deal: bearish oil
No deal: also bearish oil

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

The systematic unwinding of the Fed’s MBS inventory has led to economic downturns in the past. This has been the longest and most sustained drawdown since they started buying in 2008. It looks like mortgage rates may have may have seen an inflection point.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.

The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.

Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.

Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

[bee🐝 @0xbeehive]

🚨 THE BANK OF JAPAN IS ABOUT TO DUMP $2.86 BILLION IN U.S. TREASURIES

This would be the largest Japanese Treasury liquidation in 30 years

The last time Japan did this - the stock market crashed 15%

When the second largest holder of U.S. debt starts selling, it puts pressure on yields and triggers risk-off across every market

- Stocks
- Crypto
- Bonds

Nothing is safe when this kind of liquidity leaves the system

Watch this closely

NOTIFS ON!

[Nick Bogle @NickBogle5]

This is a crazy headline

[Barchart @Barchart]

Honda Motor $HMC just posted its first annual loss in its 70-year history as a publicly traded company 🚨🚨🚨

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

I have said for over 2 years Japan will panic.

I did not relent.

I will not relent.

2 years wrong.

10 years right.

We are closer than ever to the Main Event.

Goodnight.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

All stock investors currently watching government bond yields

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Japan

Japan's 30-Year Yield jumps to highest level in history 📈🤯👀