Tensions Hot again over the weekend!
The ceasefire is looking increasingly fragile, and the oil market is taking notice.
Hyperliquid is showing crude moving higher as reports of renewed military activity between the U.S. and Iran raise concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and global energy flows.
+$1,400 today.
Warsh came out far more hawkish than expected, even leaving the door open to another rate hike.
Inflation is still elevated, Jobs not finished. Elevated energy prices due to the Iran-US/Israel conflict making things even more difficult.
MRKT had the roadmap. 📈
LOL.
The disconnect is getting comical.
First, we’re told the Strait is reopening and supply risks are fading. Then, hours later, reports emerge that ships are still awaiting IRGC approval to transit.
More damage control from Trump and his administration. As long as Iran retains leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are going to remain elevated with the limited economic activity.
The “MOU” looked more like a repackaged peace deal from the start. Now it’s already beginning to unravel as the administration continues its back-and-forth, contradictory messaging.
Complete cap.
Markets are buying the headline, but who seriously believes Iran is about to get a green light to freely sell oil overnight?
Feels more like a positioning headline than a geopolitical breakthrough.
Gold bears, dollar bulls, and oil bulls are still going to be the dominant trend as the cold hard truth begins to surface again.
Just more desperate damage control. Hold your conviction!
A big flaw in the Iran deal narrative?
Lebanon is a red line for Tehran, yet Netanyahu appears willing to act on his own accord regardless of negotiations.
At what point do we stop calling them partners and start asking who’s actually in charge?
This is not good…
This is the most serious escalation I’ve seen since start of war. Threatening Irans energy infrastructure is a major war threat and Iran won’t sit idly by and just take it. Prolonging the geopolitical tensions.
Coupling this with an already high CPI print yesterday and now PPI coming in at an elevated 6.5%… this is a recipe for disaster for stock markets and looks like the stock markets are going to continue seeing outflows and its correction phase. Then there’s the ultimate indicator… the KNICKS. 😂
Trump continues to dig his own grave in this situation! KNICKS IN 5