David

[David @NitroX919]

@lithos_graphein A waste of time, they’ll never compete again with ASML.
They should focus on future lithographic research stuff like directed self assembly, etc

[François Chollet @fchollet]

Some considerations that many folks seem not to get:

1. It can be a bubble even if the tech works. (For instance, if the tech doesn't have a high-demand use case.)

2. It can be a bubble even if the tech works and has strong product-market fit. (For instance, if the tech cannot be economically viable.)

3. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, and has a path to eventual economic viability. (For instance, if profitability takes too long to achieve or makes margin/competition assumptions that fail to materialize.)

4. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, and is currently highly profitable. (For instance, if demand has a hard ceiling and growth stops once the ceiling is reached.)

5. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, is currently highly profitable, and has unlimited future demand.

Literally all it takes for something to be a bubble is for lots of people to over-enthusiastically bet their money on it, and subsequently get panicky.

Importantly, bubbles can be attached both to things that are completely hogwash, like the Metaverse, and to world-changing developments like the Internet or railways. Bubbles don't care. They're brought into existence by the thoughts and feelings of investors, not by actual tech or products.

"The bubble has burst" doesn't mean "the tech didn't work" or "people stopped using the tech." It only means that people got panicky, investor money dried up, and valuations collapsed. Internet adoption didn't stop in 2000.

[David @NitroX919]

@MOSSADil If you can do that, you can tear apart the country into rival factions, leading to a Syria like scenario, also covertly supply weapons to other minorities as well like Baluch, etc
Thus this will make the conflict last long
A good end scenario if you Iran completely out

[David @NitroX919]

@MOSSADil You need to supply weapons to the core Iranian population directly, somehow smuggle weapons

[David @NitroX919]

@VladSaigau @aaronburnett I think just waiting for mass produced Chinese EUV ~2032 might be the best thing here

[David @NitroX919]

@VladSaigau @aaronburnett Also ASML increasing production means they have to convince their entire supply chain to increase production as well, they likely won’t do this unless Elon outright signs contracts upfront for the machines
Semiconductors are an extremely risk averse space

[Nishith Ravulakolu @nishithX26]

@unusual_whales Even AI tools are getting laid off now. Tough market.

[David @NitroX919]

@Luba1725154 @LouMannheim87 @GaryMarcus Yes that’s my concern
This IPO is effectively a bailout for XAI VCs
And now possibly cursor as well
Highly cash burning entities
I don’t want anything to do with them

I might’ve been open to the core SpaceX business for a lower price
But not this overpriced hodgepodge

[David @NitroX919]

@NewAgeRetroNerd We do, we just learn using custom responses from chatgpt

[David @NitroX919]

@Luba1725154 @GaryMarcus I’d start by dumping all NASDAQ ETFs asap

But then you don’t know, SpaceX can continue to hold this valuation, Elon companies have a cult like following, just look at Tesla, an irrational valuation for decades
Elon will just promise the next big thing to keep investors hooked

[David @NitroX919]

@zephyr_z9 They don’t even have local DUV yet, they still rely on the limited number of immersion scanners
Probably 2030, when they can mass produce their own immersion scanners
They’re pretty stuck right now

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

LLM companies are likely to be like airline companies: small margins, intense competition, high expenses.

[Tibo @thsottiaux]

Some of you noticed limits drained faster in Codex, we root caused it to an optimization that we rolled back that had an impact on cache hit rates when compacting across long running sessions.

We fixed this and have now reset usage limits for all accounts. Enjoy the weekend.

[David @NitroX919]

@Erdayastronaut They should just let blue origin do the first Artemis mission, later when starship v4 is ready, and it can push Orion to LLO, the number of tankers will come down to 5, and thus you’ll have a conveyor belt to the moon

Who cares about the first landing, we’re going there to stay

[David @NitroX919]

@fchollet Excited to hear more from NDEA

[David @NitroX919]

@lordofblocks @fchollet And hardware will change
Like it changed for GenAI

[David @NitroX919]

@Erdayastronaut All the best bro
Your videos are very high quality, literally months of research in this, can’t find this stuff anywhere else

[David @NitroX919]

@fchollet Yep data annotation UIs were one of the things I’ve been heavily using it for, have to iterate on it a number of times, but eventually vibe coding does work well for this use case