Rohan Gupta, CFP®

📈 Mutual Fund insider | Spotting undervalued stocks & emerging sectors | 🌍Macros, markets & geopolitics decoded | Follow for deep, actionable insights

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

🧵 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 ₹𝟔 𝐋𝐚𝐤𝐡 𝐂𝐫𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐄𝐈𝐓 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 🏢💰

Turning rent into returns for Indian investors.

Here is everything you need to know about India’s Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) simplified 👇

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

@datta_arvind Yes, 100.19 to be exact

[Dr. Tanmay Motiwala @Least_ordinary]

Notes to self:

1. Markets are boring most of the time. Having a primary job that keeps you busy and ensures steady cash flow matters more than constant market action.

2. Stocks can fall after you buy. They can rally after you sell. You’ll never catch exact tops or bottoms. If you do, it’s luck, not skill.

3. If you don’t have time for active reading and tracking, it’s wiser to stick to mutual funds.

4. A portfolio is like a team. Every player won’t perform at the same time. What matters is that the team wins (i.e., beats the benchmark)

5. The real edge is cutting noise. Too much of news and information doesn't help. Filtering it surelg does.

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

🚨Indian Mutual Funds for NRIs: How US & Canada Tax Them👇

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨BREAKING: Silver prices are exploding due to a severe global supply shortage.

The physical market can no longer meet soaring demand.

Here is what is actually going on 👇

1. China is changing the rules.

Starting January 1, 2026, China will restrict silver exports.

To export silver, companies will now need government licenses.

Only large, state approved firms qualify:

- At least 80 tonnes of annual production
- Around $30 million in credit lines

This effectively blocks small and mid size exporters.

China controls roughly 60–70% of global silver supply. When China tightens exports, global supply drops immediately.

This is the same tactics China used with rare earth metals.

2. The silver market was already short supply.

Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 straight years. That means demand is higher than supply every single year.

For 2025:

- Global demand: 1.24 billion ounces
- Global supply: 1.01 billion ounces

That is a gap of 100–250 million ounces. And this gap is expected to get worse after China’s export limits.

Mining supply is not growing:

Silver mining is mostly a by product of copper and zinc mining.

New mines take 10+ years to build, Ore quality is falling, Recycling is not enough to fill the gap.

There is no quick fix here.

3. Physical silver inventories are collapsing.

This is where it gets serious.

- COMEX inventories are down 70% since 2020
- London vaults are down 40%
- Shanghai inventories are at 10-year lows

At current demand, some regions hold only 30-45 days of usable silver.

This is why physical premiums are exploding.

In Shanghai:

- Physical silver trades at $80+/oz
- COMEX prices are much lower

This price gap means buyers are paying extra just to get real silver.

4. Paper silver is completely disconnected from reality.

There is an extreme imbalance between paper silver and real silver.

The paper to physical ratio is around 356:1.

That means:

- For every 1 ounce of real silver
- There are hundreds of paper claims

If even a small percentage of buyers ask for real delivery, the system breaks.

Markets understand this. That is why price moves are becoming vertical.

5. Industrial demand keeps rising.

Silver is not just a safe haven metal.

It is critical for:

- Solar panels
- Electric vehicles
- Electronics
- Medical devices

Industrial use now makes up 50-60% of total silver demand.

There is no substitute for silver in many of these uses.

Banks and institutions are reacting to:

- Supply limits
- Physical shortages
- Paper market risk

Silver is not rallying because of fear.

It is rallying because a real supply squeeze is playing out in real time.

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

📉 Why most portfolios are lagging in 2025 - whether Mutual Fund or DIY

This chart explains everything.

Out of 2,667 NSE stocks:
• 1,532 stocks (57%) are 20–50% down from 52-week highs
• 397 stocks are 50–75% down
• 30 stocks are >75% down
• Only 295 stocks have meaningfully rallied

👉 That is 90% failure rate in stock selection.

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

RBI goes big on liquidity 🚀

• ₹2 lakh crore OMO announced
 → RBI to buy government bonds via open market operations

• $10 billion USD-INR swap for 3 years

Clear signal: liquidity support is back in focus.
RBI is truly batting on the front foot 😍

#RBI #Liquidity #BondMarket #IndianEconomy

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

🌅 Pre-Market Update 🌟

📉 Global Cues Turn Weak:
📉 Dow Jones fell 386.51 pts to 45,752.26
📉 S&P 500 slipped 103.40 pts to 6,538.76
📉 Nasdaq dropped 486.18 pts to 22,078.05
💻 Tech stocks weakened: Nvidia ⬇️ 3.15%, AMD ⬇️ 7.84%, Amazon ⬇️ 2.49%, Microsoft ⬇️ 1.6%, Intel ⬇️ 4.42%, Palantir ⬇️ 5.85%, Tesla ⬇️ 2.21%

🌏 Asian Markets:
🔻 Most Asian markets traded lower in early hours
🏭 Japan’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.8, marking a fifth straight month below 50
✨ GIFT Nifty signalled a weak start, trading 39 pts lower at ₹26,179

📉 Yesterday’s Indian Markets:
📈 Nifty 50 closed at 26,192.15, up 139.50 pts
📈 Sensex ended at 85,632.68, rising 446.21 pts
📊 Both indices remain 0.32% below all-time highs
📈 India VIX moved above 12, rising over 1%
🔄 Mixed sectoral performance: Financials, Auto, Bank, Energy, FMCG, Metal gained; Realty, Pharma, PSU Bank, Media declined
💰 FII/DII Activity (Nov 20):

🟢 FII bought ₹283.65 Cr
🟢 DII bought ₹824.46 Cr for the 20th consecutive session

📊 Domestic Macro Update:
⚙️ Core sector reported 0% YoY growth in October
📉 September rose 3.3%, August rose 6.5% (revised)
📅 September 2024 saw 2.4% expansion

💲 Dollar Index:
💵 Hovered near a 5.5-month high at 100.20

🛢️ Oil Prices:
🛢️ Brent Crude at $62.97 ⬇️ 0.66%
🛢️ WTI at $58.59 ⬇️ 0.69%

🪙 Gold Prices:
🥇 Spot gold steady at $4,082.90/oz, up 0.1%

🚫 F&O Ban Today:
📛 SAIL, Samaan Capital

Let’s see how markets move today! 📊✨

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

🚨India’s smartphone market share (Q3 2025)

1. Vivo – 18.3%
2. OPPO – 13.9%
3. Samsung – 12.6%
4. Apple – 10.4%
5. Realme – 9.8%
6. Xiaomi - 9.2%
7. Motorola - 8.3%
8. Poco - 4.3%
9. iQOO - 3.3%
10. OnePlus - 2.4%
11. Others - 7.5%

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

🚨Last 5 years (as on Oct 31,2025)

- Sensex EPS growth 16.4% CAGR.

- Absolute sensex EPS growth 115%

- Sensex growth 16.2% CAGR.

- Absolute Sensex growth 112%.

Baaki sab noise hai.

~ ✍️Data source: WhiteOak MF

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

🚨FIIs are selling again..

But don’t panic.
Here is the simple truth 👇

India has seen big FII selling many times before 2008, 2013, 2016, Covid, 2022.

Every time, the market fell a bit and then recovered strongly within the next 12 months.

Why?
Because India’s market is much bigger now.
So even “big” outflows are actually small compared to our total market size.

FIIs selling ≠ India is weak.
It just creates short term dips.

For long term investors, these dips have always been a good top up opportunity. 🇮🇳

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

India is on SALE. 👇

For the first time in 17 years, the Indian stock market (Nifty 50) is trading at a 20% discount compared to the US market (S&P 500).

Usually, India trades at a premium because our companies grow faster.
But right now, valuations have corrected, while earnings are still strong.

✅ Nifty P/E - 23.4x
✅ S&P 500 P/E - 28x
➡️ This means good Indian companies have become cheaper.

In simple words:
“Achhe shares ab saste mil rahe hain.”

If you are a long-term investor, this is a good time to top-up your SIPs or add lumpsum gradually.
Not a recommendation - just the math and opportunity.

[Megh Updates 🚨™ @MeghUpdates]

📍Hyundai Motor CEO: “India is more important to us than China.” 🔥

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

Did I just hear Peyush Bansal say “As a tech company…”? 🤣

Bhai, chashma bechta hai tu! 👓

Aaj kal har business apne naam ke aage “Tech” laga ke investor pitch bana raha hai.

From chai to chashma sab AI-first companies ban gaye hain. 😂

AI ab “Aapka Investment” lagta hai. 💸

What is next?
“As a blockchain company, we make samosas.” 😭

#Lenskart #IPO #AI #StockMarket

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

🟦 8️⃣ INVESTOR TAKEAWAY

✅ Structural demand enduring
✅ Policy & visa risks mitigated
✅ AI = growth enabler, not destroyer
✅ Valuations near bottom range
⚠️ Requires patience contrarian call with long-term payoff potential

📘 SOURCE

Fident Asset Management – IT Services: A Look at the Yonder (2025)

🔖 Bookmark for your IT sector review

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

💼 INDIA IT SERVICES OUTLOOK 2025

A Contrarian Setup Emerging in the Sector

🟦 1️⃣ SECTOR PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT
•Nifty IT Index: -21% YoY 📉
•Top 5 IT firms lost ₹8.5 Trillion (-26%) in market cap
•Valuation Reset: P/E multiples dropped from 30x+ → 20–25x, near historical norms
🔹 Sentiment = weak, valuations = attractive

[Rohan Gupta, CFP® @NiveshwithRG]

🟩 7️⃣ RISK–REWARD BALANCE
•Bad news priced in: downside limited
•Upside drivers: faster AI adoption, stable US macro
•High-quality FCF sector now trading at a discount