Lark

互联网资源分享者💻，BTC/美股观点者💰，AI爱好者🤖，阅读达人📚

[Lark @No97Ng]

同事在微信群里面发来了一个小红书的链接，我在微信浏览器里面看了下，谁知道过了没多久，小红书软件里面就显示了同样的内容，这难道没有监控吗？

[Lark @No97Ng]

@Venu_7_ 我很喜欢这种跳空高开的，买入后止损也好设置

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung.

As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck.

This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again.

The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there.

For photonics:

> We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop.

> We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls.

Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations.

Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35...

But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections)

For Memory:

I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago.

Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world.

There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme.

But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural.

And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year.

People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness).

I can't tell others what to to do:

But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company.

Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company.

Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.

[Lark @No97Ng]

久违了啊

[Lark @No97Ng]

@pyang1235005 狗哥小红书叫什么

[Lark @No97Ng]

@1YES_yes1 @grok 这是啥节目

[Lark @No97Ng]

@LabSpeculation

[Lark @No97Ng]

@LuBtc888 动不动就资本，无语

[Lark @No97Ng]

@nandeyare 做空的人赢麻了

[Lark @No97Ng]

在金融市场，耐心是一种美德

[xilo @xilo2991]

https://t.co/Uwz4VJ3VB7

[Lark @No97Ng]

股价上不上涨还是得看企业能不能持续盈利

[Lark @No97Ng]

@MrPeanutVlog AI吧？

[Lark @No97Ng]

@nandeyare 希望120日均线能撑住，不然就难看了啊

[Lark @No97Ng]

@Ntiprossy @grok 作品番号是？

[Lark @No97Ng]

@tychozzz @grok 七巨头财报具体什么时候披露

[Lark @No97Ng]

@thcaroline2233 @grok 总结一下要点，并分析合理性

[Lark @No97Ng]

现在是适合买火箭实验室的时候

[Lark @No97Ng]

@CarlaNarde84606 @grok 她是谁

[Lark @No97Ng]

投资要取得稳定回报，既要有长期主义的耐心，也要有机会主义的敏锐；以前者确定方向，以后者提高效率。