China is way closer than almost any Western analyst will admit to mass production with EUV
China is covering its deserts in solar farms and stacking up vast battery banks next to them
China can build datacenters for a fraction of American cost
How do you think this ends?
maybe this is all a blessing in disguise and unlocks an even better timeline:
>jensen teams up w/ elon
>steals everyone good from nvidia
>builds terafab
>inference to zero
>open models for all
>datacenters in space
>profit???
My favourite, totally speculative theory, is that the Haung chip rat lines operated with the blessing of the White House. Alice was the fixer, but the affair itself was a cover. The rationale for this was a quiet quid pro quo for access to rare earths and other essentials, while maintaining the optics of being tough on China.
Moreover, the economic circularity of the arrangement suited both sides. Without it, the main narrative for growth collapses both in the West and in China.
The fact the whole thing was blown open is connected to the Dems coming back into power, and wanting to shut down the AI race. Their agenda is to lock ai down and take it fully in house, citing safety concerns. But everyone knows that is unlikely to happen in practice. A lockdown means asymmetric tech advantage for the US military industrial complex. That is concerning for everyone on the planet as it destabilies the MAD balance that has prevented nuclear annihilation so far.
I think on that basis it probably served the interests of the world for some of these models to be "distilled" by China, and released into the wild. Without deepseek and Kimi the asymmetry would be far worse.
The only thing standing in the way of Chinese, French or even British labs catching up with American labs is access to chips. Blow up Jensen and the rat lines, and the power grab is complete.
Even if it's not the truth, I think it's a good story. And it makes even more sense when you frame it against the attempted ousting of Sam Altman in 2023, and the appointment of Larry Summers to OpenAI, PLUS, the latest revelations about Dario Amodei's wife.
@MaryTilesTexas Eh only makes sense in the Texas triangle most everywhere else doesn’t have the density vs distance to make it make sense compared to flying. The north east already works.
Most people are not special, rational, or particularly good. They're tribal primates running social scripts, ranking status, and defending comforting lies over evidence. Intelligence, drive, and outcomes are heavily genetic. Equality of result is a fantasy. The average person will never produce anything of lasting value, and the world is carried by a thin minority they resent.
@Tyler_Plummer Currently building a containerized wastewater processor with minimal maintence sized for a homestead, produces water with low pressure distillation.
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills here but due to our stupid safetism we are literally sending all of our sensitive vulnerability data to China because that is somehow going to never be exploited.
Reality of our days:
1. I am sitting on a set of vulns (4+) that allows me to remotely take over a consumer home automation device I have (3+ diff ways).
2. The vendor doesn't only serve consumers, but also critical infra (announced partnerships include pharma manufacturing plants, airport logistics, hospitals, etc) across various locations in Europe and the US (not the same product line, ofc, so maybe moot).
3. Claude and Astra refuse to help me explore even my own device, so now I'm using Chinese hosted models for investigating.
4. The vendor (with a revenue of $0.75B) does not maintain any security disclosure practice whatsoever, nor does respond to emails.
So, to recap, I need to outsource vulnerability hunting of (potentially, I don't know) critical western infrastructure to Chinese models, because the western models refuse; and the vendor doesn't give a shit. Fun timeline.
PS: The vendor is Swiss.
MIPLIB is a library of optimization problems, such as how best to schedule airline crews and delivery trucks.
Of 203 open problems, Claude beat the listed mathematical solution in 72 cases, and in 45 cases proved that a solution was optimal.
Welp, I guess I won't ever buy a cybertruck. Like I get Elon's point about scarcity of talent and space but like run 3 shifts 24/7 until demand is done. I would have taken a long range for 20k less but I can't pull the trigger on the beast. I'l pay extra later I'm sure.
Tesla has just officially stopped taking orders for the Cybertruck Premium AWD trim. Additionally, Tesla has raised the starting price of the Cyberbeast trim by $7,500 or 7.3% to $109,990 (from $102,490 before).
The Cyberbeast trim is now the only trim you can order.
@mattvanswol That’s the deadest I’ve seen ATL. Had a convo with a bartender commenting on the diversity I saw at some of the clubs downtown said it got really bad over the last 5 years.