@kevinbonham@sorceror43 Furthermore, Demos Au found with it's MRP survey that the preference leakage (from LNP to ONP) was at its highest closer to the cities and at its lowest in the rurals
In other words, most leakage occurs where the preferences would never actually distribute
@NotTurnbull Hard to see a 54% 2PP for the combined right if there isn't some decent improvement amongst SE Asian and South Asian migrants is my thought
There are legitimate infrastructure concerns and the area is very 'aspirational' in Point Cook proper
@MStanton2001@AusPoll6 It's a poll, this account posts polls - why not let the people decide themselves the 'merit' of a poll?
People have such weird takes on this account
@kevinbonham Is there much precedent for an upper house controlled by a right wing bloc with Labor governing from the LA? This sort of polling gives Labor a chance of hanging onto enough seats but the sheer numbers leave them stuffed in the upper house methinks...
@AusPoll6 Impressive result for the polling industry in an election cycle with unprecedented circumstances
Another strong state poll for Demos and a return to form for YouGov who bombed in Tasmania, Newspoll overstating Labor becoming a pattern since 2025
@AusPoll6 I think it's actually just chosen because then Torney emerges as the most likely progressive candidate to advance to the 2CP - which was likely the goal of this commissioned poll
@AusPoll6 Liberal and Torney vote might be overstated due to candidates being named? 'Under 17%' is such a weird way to put it, presumably Labor is at 16 or so and the Greens there or there abouts?
@kevinbonham I understand last election flows are generally more useful than respondent allocated in terms of accuracy - but are they still useful to model a 2PP when one party has come from nearly nothing to 23%?
@AusPoll6 52-38 right-left split (ON/LNP-ALP/GRN)
Wonder to what extent ON is disrupting the Liberal vote in Eastern Melbourne, can foresee huge vote exchange in the regions but assume much less so in affluent middle suburbs
Nepean could tell us a lot...