Anglo Election Insights

Electoral analysis across the Angloshpere

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@kevinbonham @sorceror43 Furthermore, Demos Au found with it's MRP survey that the preference leakage (from LNP to ONP) was at its highest closer to the cities and at its lowest in the rurals

In other words, most leakage occurs where the preferences would never actually distribute

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@NotTurnbull Hard to see a 54% 2PP for the combined right if there isn't some decent improvement amongst SE Asian and South Asian migrants is my thought

There are legitimate infrastructure concerns and the area is very 'aspirational' in Point Cook proper

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@NotTurnbull The northern end perhaps, but in Mill Park proper it's more Southern Europeans and Voice results suggest social conservatism

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@NotTurnbull I'd give them a sniff in Mill Park personally

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@NotTurnbull Very spicy!

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AusPoll6 First time ONP has hit 30% in a non-cooked SMS poll?

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AusPoll6 Labor-ONP government lets go!

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AusPoll6 Why are Roy Morgan doing this to themselves lol - I'd sooner have the Resolve AI numbers...

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@MStanton2001 @AusPoll6 It's a poll, this account posts polls - why not let the people decide themselves the 'merit' of a poll?

People have such weird takes on this account

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@kevinbonham Is there much precedent for an upper house controlled by a right wing bloc with Labor governing from the LA? This sort of polling gives Labor a chance of hanging onto enough seats but the sheer numbers leave them stuffed in the upper house methinks...

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AusPoll6 Impressive result for the polling industry in an election cycle with unprecedented circumstances

Another strong state poll for Demos and a return to form for YouGov who bombed in Tasmania, Newspoll overstating Labor becoming a pattern since 2025

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AusPoll6 Where is the full report of this poll available?

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AussieNerd33583 @AusPoll6 Tomorrow

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AusPoll6 I think it's actually just chosen because then Torney emerges as the most likely progressive candidate to advance to the 2CP - which was likely the goal of this commissioned poll

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AusPoll6 Liberal and Torney vote might be overstated due to candidates being named? 'Under 17%' is such a weird way to put it, presumably Labor is at 16 or so and the Greens there or there abouts?

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@kevinbonham I understand last election flows are generally more useful than respondent allocated in terms of accuracy - but are they still useful to model a 2PP when one party has come from nearly nothing to 23%?

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@AusPoll6 52-38 right-left split (ON/LNP-ALP/GRN)

Wonder to what extent ON is disrupting the Liberal vote in Eastern Melbourne, can foresee huge vote exchange in the regions but assume much less so in affluent middle suburbs

Nepean could tell us a lot...

[Anglo Election Insights @Numbrzstation]

@lachlanhope1997 @AusPoll6 Cringe