Omar Ahmady

Tech + Investing •💡: Innovation (AI, Space, Energy) • Interests: ✈️♦️🗺 • Ex: $SQ $TWTR

[Extreme Temperatures Around The World @extremetemps]

HISTORIC RECORD HEAT EVERYWHERE
We are gonna live historic days which will be remembered for generations:
Thousands of records will be pulverized at the same time in North,South (40C in winter again !) Americas,Asia and Europe.
Stay tuned. It will be an absolute insanity.

[Omar Ahmady @oahmady]

@dalibali2 When you asked about $BEs business model and I saw you were long out of the money calls a month later… couldn’t be prouder

[Trader Theory @tradertheory]

This is the best scene in Industry by far.

Every trader needs to watch this series.

[Omar Ahmady @oahmady]

@JW_mktresearch @gurgavin @GregAbbott_TX Dude casinos aren’t even legal in Texas

[roon @tszzl]

hmm

[Andrew T @Blockanalia]

Can't remember who said it, but every good finance biography/interview book is essentially:

how someone made money -- which is always interesting and almost never reproductable

and

how someone lost money, which is always always always always always the same

[Directionally Correct @directioncorrec]

It's very likely that citadel buying SA ended the cross market memory correlation trade.

I first detected Korean/Japanese being a leading indicator for next day SNDK price action in June after the correlation was negative all year.

The effect exacerbated in July. The signal throughout July had a 70% accuracy.

The root cause of this is now clear. Leopold got way too levered starting in June.

After hours had low liquidity so he couldn't dump and so there was a pricing edge in $SNDK equity movement.

Biggest lesson for me though is when you have found such an interesting regime shift to be aggressive and size up on it earlier.

But also as someone with no quant background and only codex I was able to find this signal and this makes me unbelievably bullish on AI x Trading and Hyperliquid.

The market is only going to become more inefficient from here as we get massive leverage, AI psychosis and transformative tech arriving.

Stay curious

[litquidity @litcapital]

Everyone wants to run a hedge fund, but it appears nobody wants to actually do any hedging

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

Charlie Munger’s three Ls is undefeated

[dnap @dnapway]

Leopold explains his approach to not blowing up (2024)

"Obviously, not blowing up is task number one and two or whatever. I think this investment firm is going to just be betting on AGI and superintelligence before the decade is out, making the bets you would make if you took that seriously."

"I think if that's wrong, the firm is not going to do that well."

"The thing you have to be able to resist is, you know, one or a couple or a few individual calls. It's like AI stagnates for a year because of the data wall, or you got the call wrong on when revenue would go up."

"You have to get timing right. I do think in general that the sequence of bets on the way to AGI is actually pretty critical, and something people underrate."

[Nayib Bukele @nayibbukele]

This may be unpopular, but we never escaped the 2008 financial crisis. We just shifted the pain.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

*SITUATIONAL AWARENESS HAS EXITED ALL OF ITS PUBLIC EQUITY TRADES

Bottom.

[Marcus Milione @MarcusMilione]

I like reading what @GavinSBaker writes a lot

I do have a question regarding "spot prices for GPU rentals are at least 2x higher than contracted rates" because it seems that this is what a majority of the thesis is hinging on (correct me if im wrong)

when you actually look at the 2026 price map, that 2x completely depends on which two numbers you compare.

Yes the B200 spot touched 2.2x - 2.7x (the 36 month reserved rate) during the March through April spike but it was only briefly

Like for like H100 is more like 1.7x to 2.1x at the neoclouds... and on the marketplaces H100 spot at $1.03 - $1.91/hr is cheaper than the $2.35 one year contract (inverted spread)

The real enterprise agreement prices of the hyperscalers are reportedly clearing at $2.50 - $4.00 against a $7.43 - $12.29 list price

So in your OCF model are you marking hyperscalers to list prices or to what the enterprises actually pay? which seems to run 60 to 80% below list

@SemiAnalysis_ has reported that 2024/25 cohorts are renewing at parity through 2028... so flat, not double. If they are correct in that, does the thesis still work at +40% renewals instead of the +100% that underearning is implying?

[Omar Ahmady @oahmady]

@dalibali2 Stupid buy at this price

[Michael Hunt @Mike_Hunt_Sr]

When you levered up on semis

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

The stock market will run a test once in a while to see how much of a pussy you are

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

You're not nearly hating hard enough

[سورا 🇪🇸 @fechasatiss]

“habibi when the US leaves, it will be just you and me” iran’s message on a missile to the uae