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Real time status and forecast for Southern California beaches, specifically San Clemente, Dana Point, Laguna Beach and Newport Beach
Dana Point, CA
Joined September 2026
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Sunday coastal risk is strengthening within MODERATE: NWS now forecasts 6–9 ft surf with near-7-ft morning tides. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 2:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE — increasing within MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW Material change: NWS San Diego now forecasts a rapid increase in southerly swell Sunday, with 6–9 ft surf and morning high tides near 7 ft. Elevated background water plus Rachel-related swell and wind-driven surge make Sunday the clearest coastal-flood/erosion concern in the current forecast. Fresh measured buoys confirm the present wave field and a meaningful long-period component. At about 2:26–2:56 PM PDT: Oceanside Offshore (46224) 4.6 ft/11 sec from 198° SSW, after a 4.9 ft/17 sec reading; San Pedro South (46253) 4.6 ft/10 sec from 169° S; Long Beach Channel (46256) 4.9 ft/10 sec from 174° S; Del Mar (46266) 3.0 ft/17 sec from 243° WSW; Torrey Pines Outer (46274) 3.3 ft/17 sec from 237° SW. The long-period signal is therefore measured, not merely modeled. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. NWS forecasts 3–5 ft surf with sets to 7 ft and HIGH rip-current risk. Fresh buoy observations broadly support the forecast. Local flooding/erosion remains possible around high water. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 peak-event calibration. Friday — MODERATE. NWS expects 3–5 ft surf with sets to 6 ft, strong rip/longshore currents and continued localized flooding/erosion. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel turns northeast and weakens while tropical moisture approaches. Coastal conditions remain elevated ahead of Sunday’s stronger swell. Sunday — MODERATE, increasing. This is now the key coastal window. NWS forecasts 6–9 ft surf, near-7-ft morning high tide, increasing southerly swell, gusty winds/choppy seas and elevated background water. That compound setup raises coastal flooding and beach-erosion potential. Rainfall may also become moderate to heavy. Monday — MODERATE. Surf is forecast to ease to 3–6 ft, but elevated water, residual swell and weather can maintain flooding/erosion concerns. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday. Dana Point modeling continues to flag Tuesday morning for a powerful SSW pulse near 4.5 ft/17 sec; this remains outside the 5-day window and requires confirmation from approaching buoy observations. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel remains a 70-mph tropical storm at 8 AM PDT, moving WNW at 7 mph. NHC forecasts the sharp northeast turn Friday–Saturday and weakening before/while moving inland. Rachel is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. Its material Southern California hazards are swell, wind, elevated coastal water and tropical moisture. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL No new material change from the earlier report. Elevated background sea level remains an important multiplier for Sunday’s swell/high-tide combination. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No material change: unfavorable for natural sand recovery. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory #46; NWS San Diego 12:55 PM AFD, Surf Zone Forecast, Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC/CDIP buoy network; Dana Point surf model.
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Measured surf is now larger at exposed Orange County beaches; elevated background water is increasing coastal-flood sensitivity. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE — increasing within MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW Material change: direct shoreline observations now show 4–5 ft surf at Strands, 4–6 ft at Lower Trestles and 6–8 ft at Huntington Beach Pier Southside. Surfline also reports roughly 1–1.5 ft more water than predicted tides in South Orange County, attributing the excess to Kelvin-wave/background-sea-level effects. That higher water baseline makes otherwise moderate surf more capable of producing run-up, erosion and localized flooding. Measured buoy evidence remains consistent with an active southerly wave field. The latest fresh Huntington-area buoy reading is about 4.9 ft from the south. Regional observations and local surf reports confirm that the swell has arrived; this is no longer just a modeled event. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE, increasing within MODERATE. NWS expects 3–5 ft surf with sets to 7 ft and dangerous rip currents. Measured surf is already 4–5 ft at Strands and substantially larger at some exposed north-Orange County beaches. Minor coastal flooding and erosion are expected around high water. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current evidence still remains below the September 7 peak-event calibration, but the elevated water baseline deserves closer attention. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated south swell and dangerous rip currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal effects continue while tropical moisture approaches. Sunday — MODERATE with upward potential. This remains the most important compound-risk window: elevated background water + S/SW swell + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding. Rain and gusty winds also become more important. Monday — MODERATE. Rain/wind and residual coastal effects remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory continues through 2 PM Tuesday. Dana Point modeling now identifies Tuesday morning as the strongest modeled swell in its 16-day outlook: about 4.5 ft at 17 sec from SSW, with roughly 1,217 kJ of modeled wave energy. This is outside the 5-day window but is now a specific feature to monitor. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel is a 70-mph tropical storm and is forecast to weaken while turning sharply northeast. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. NHC continues to warn that Rachel-generated swells can produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along Southern California, while its moisture increases weekend rain/flood risk. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: South Orange County observations are reporting approximately 1–1.5 ft more water than predicted tides. That is now relevant to coastal risk because it increases total water level before wave run-up is added. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No material change: unfavorable for natural sand recovery. Sources: NHC; NWS San Diego AFD, Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC/CDIP regional buoy network; Surfline South Orange County observations; Dana Point surf model.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Measured surf is now larger at exposed Orange County beaches; elevated background water is increasing coastal-flood sensitivity. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE — increasing within MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW Material change: direct shoreline observations now show 4–5 ft surf at Strands, 4–6 ft at Lower Trestles and 6–8 ft at Huntington Beach Pier Southside. Surfline also reports roughly 1–1.5 ft more water than predicted tides in South Orange County, attributing the excess to Kelvin-wave/background-sea-level effects. That higher water baseline makes otherwise moderate surf more capable of producing run-up, erosion and localized flooding. Measured buoy evidence remains consistent with an active southerly wave field. The latest fresh Huntington-area buoy reading is about 4.9 ft from the south. Regional observations and local surf reports confirm that the swell has arrived; this is no longer just a modeled event. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE, increasing within MODERATE. NWS expects 3–5 ft surf with sets to 7 ft and dangerous rip currents. Measured surf is already 4–5 ft at Strands and substantially larger at some exposed north-Orange County beaches. Minor coastal flooding and erosion are expected around high water. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current evidence still remains below the September 7 peak-event calibration, but the elevated water baseline deserves closer attention. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated south swell and dangerous rip currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal effects continue while tropical moisture approaches. Sunday — MODERATE with upward potential. This remains the most important compound-risk window: elevated background water + S/SW swell + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding. Rain and gusty winds also become more important. Monday — MODERATE. Rain/wind and residual coastal effects remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory continues through 2 PM Tuesday. Dana Point modeling now identifies Tuesday morning as the strongest modeled swell in its 16-day outlook: about 4.5 ft at 17 sec from SSW, with roughly 1,217 kJ of modeled wave energy. This is outside the 5-day window but is now a specific feature to monitor. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel is a 70-mph tropical storm and is forecast to weaken while turning sharply northeast. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. NHC continues to warn that Rachel-generated swells can produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along Southern California, while its moisture increases weekend rain/flood risk. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: South Orange County observations are reporting approximately 1–1.5 ft more water than predicted tides. That is now relevant to coastal risk because it increases total water level before wave run-up is added. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No material change: unfavorable for natural sand recovery. Sources: NHC; NWS San Diego AFD, Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC/CDIP regional buoy network; Surfline South Orange County observations; Dana Point surf model.
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel weakens, but measured buoy data confirm elevated southerly swell; coastal risk remains MODERATE. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW The key new evidence is measured buoy data. The Southern California network confirms an active southerly wave field reaching Orange County now, while longer-period SW/WSW energy is also present regionally. This supports the MODERATE assessment rather than indicating a September 7-level event. Capistrano Beach Nearshore (measured): 4.2 ft significant wave height (Hs), 10.5 sec, 198° (SSW), fresh at about 7:27 AM. Oceanside Offshore: 3.9 ft, 12.5 sec, 188° (S). San Pedro South: 4.6 ft, 10.5 sec, 171° (S). Leucadia Nearshore: 3.1 ft, 18.2 sec, 239° (WSW). Del Mar Nearshore: 3.3 ft, 16.7 sec, 239° (WSW). The network therefore shows both the shorter-period southerly energy and a separate long-period SW/WSW component. This is materially more useful than relying on modeled surf alone. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3–5 ft with local sets to 7 ft today, swell from 180°, with HIGH rip-current risk. Dana Point modeling shows about 3 ft this morning building to 3.5 ft this afternoon/evening, with a 16-sec SSW primary swell. The measured nearshore data broadly support the forecast, although the longest-period energy is currently more evident at stations south of Orange County. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. Newport Beach high tides: 5.4 ft at 8:33 AM and 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM. Elevated south swell plus long-period energy creates dangerous rip currents, erosion and localized overtopping/flooding risk at vulnerable beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 calibration based on current evidence. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated southerly surf and dangerous currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal risk remains elevated; tropical moisture begins approaching. Sunday — MODERATE, with potential to increase. NWS San Diego now highlights an important compound-risk factor: elevated background water level + S/SW swell from Rachel + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding, especially Sunday. Westerly coastal-water gusts of 20–30 mph are possible. Monday — MODERATE. Residual coastal effects plus rain/wind remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory extends through 2 PM Tuesday. Continue watching additional swell energy and the evolving storm/trough interaction. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel weakened to a 70-mph tropical storm at 2 AM PDT, 895 miles west of southern Baja. NHC expects continued weakening and a northeast turn toward northern Baja. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. The coastal concern is swell plus later moisture/wind interaction, not a hurricane landfall in Southern California. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: NWS San Diego reports its tide gauge is about 18 inches higher than a year ago, attributing the elevated level to warmer-water thermal expansion, strengthening El Niño and the latest Kelvin wave. This elevated baseline increases sensitivity to swell and wind-driven surge. No projected Kelvin-wave amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No meaningful improvement: conditions remain unfavorable for natural sand recovery while elevated southerly swell persists. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #45; NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal Flood Advisory; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard AFD; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Dana Point surf model; NOAA Kelvin-wave information.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel weakens, but measured buoy data confirm elevated southerly swell; coastal risk remains MODERATE. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW The key new evidence is measured buoy data. The Southern California network confirms an active southerly wave field reaching Orange County now, while longer-period SW/WSW energy is also present regionally. This supports the MODERATE assessment rather than indicating a September 7-level event. Capistrano Beach Nearshore (measured): 4.2 ft significant wave height (Hs), 10.5 sec, 198° (SSW), fresh at about 7:27 AM. Oceanside Offshore: 3.9 ft, 12.5 sec, 188° (S). San Pedro South: 4.6 ft, 10.5 sec, 171° (S). Leucadia Nearshore: 3.1 ft, 18.2 sec, 239° (WSW). Del Mar Nearshore: 3.3 ft, 16.7 sec, 239° (WSW). The network therefore shows both the shorter-period southerly energy and a separate long-period SW/WSW component. This is materially more useful than relying on modeled surf alone. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3–5 ft with local sets to 7 ft today, swell from 180°, with HIGH rip-current risk. Dana Point modeling shows about 3 ft this morning building to 3.5 ft this afternoon/evening, with a 16-sec SSW primary swell. The measured nearshore data broadly support the forecast, although the longest-period energy is currently more evident at stations south of Orange County. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. Newport Beach high tides: 5.4 ft at 8:33 AM and 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM. Elevated south swell plus long-period energy creates dangerous rip currents, erosion and localized overtopping/flooding risk at vulnerable beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 calibration based on current evidence. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated southerly surf and dangerous currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal risk remains elevated; tropical moisture begins approaching. Sunday — MODERATE, with potential to increase. NWS San Diego now highlights an important compound-risk factor: elevated background water level + S/SW swell from Rachel + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding, especially Sunday. Westerly coastal-water gusts of 20–30 mph are possible. Monday — MODERATE. Residual coastal effects plus rain/wind remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory extends through 2 PM Tuesday. Continue watching additional swell energy and the evolving storm/trough interaction. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel weakened to a 70-mph tropical storm at 2 AM PDT, 895 miles west of southern Baja. NHC expects continued weakening and a northeast turn toward northern Baja. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. The coastal concern is swell plus later moisture/wind interaction, not a hurricane landfall in Southern California. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: NWS San Diego reports its tide gauge is about 18 inches higher than a year ago, attributing the elevated level to warmer-water thermal expansion, strengthening El Niño and the latest Kelvin wave. This elevated baseline increases sensitivity to swell and wind-driven surge. No projected Kelvin-wave amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No meaningful improvement: conditions remain unfavorable for natural sand recovery while elevated southerly swell persists. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #45; NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal Flood Advisory; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard AFD; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Dana Point surf model; NOAA Kelvin-wave information.
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel weakens, but measured buoy data confirm elevated southerly swell; coastal risk remains MODERATE. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW The key new evidence is measured buoy data. The Southern California network confirms an active southerly wave field reaching Orange County now, while longer-period SW/WSW energy is also present regionally. This supports the MODERATE assessment rather than indicating a September 7-level event. Capistrano Beach Nearshore (measured): 4.2 ft significant wave height (Hs), 10.5 sec, 198° (SSW), fresh at about 7:27 AM. Oceanside Offshore: 3.9 ft, 12.5 sec, 188° (S). San Pedro South: 4.6 ft, 10.5 sec, 171° (S). Leucadia Nearshore: 3.1 ft, 18.2 sec, 239° (WSW). Del Mar Nearshore: 3.3 ft, 16.7 sec, 239° (WSW). The network therefore shows both the shorter-period southerly energy and a separate long-period SW/WSW component. This is materially more useful than relying on modeled surf alone. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3–5 ft with local sets to 7 ft today, swell from 180°, with HIGH rip-current risk. Dana Point modeling shows about 3 ft this morning building to 3.5 ft this afternoon/evening, with a 16-sec SSW primary swell. The measured nearshore data broadly support the forecast, although the longest-period energy is currently more evident at stations south of Orange County. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. Newport Beach high tides: 5.4 ft at 8:33 AM and 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM. Elevated south swell plus long-period energy creates dangerous rip currents, erosion and localized overtopping/flooding risk at vulnerable beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 calibration based on current evidence. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated southerly surf and dangerous currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal risk remains elevated; tropical moisture begins approaching. Sunday — MODERATE, with potential to increase. NWS San Diego now highlights an important compound-risk factor: elevated background water level + S/SW swell from Rachel + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding, especially Sunday. Westerly coastal-water gusts of 20–30 mph are possible. Monday — MODERATE. Residual coastal effects plus rain/wind remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory extends through 2 PM Tuesday. Continue watching additional swell energy and the evolving storm/trough interaction. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel weakened to a 70-mph tropical storm at 2 AM PDT, 895 miles west of southern Baja. NHC expects continued weakening and a northeast turn toward northern Baja. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. The coastal concern is swell plus later moisture/wind interaction, not a hurricane landfall in Southern California. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: NWS San Diego reports its tide gauge is about 18 inches higher than a year ago, attributing the elevated level to warmer-water thermal expansion, strengthening El Niño and the latest Kelvin wave. This elevated baseline increases sensitivity to swell and wind-driven surge. No projected Kelvin-wave amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No meaningful improvement: conditions remain unfavorable for natural sand recovery while elevated southerly swell persists. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #45; NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal Flood Advisory; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard AFD; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Dana Point surf model; NOAA Kelvin-wave information.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel weakens, but measured buoy data confirm elevated southerly swell; coastal risk remains MODERATE. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW The key new evidence is measured buoy data. The Southern California network confirms an active southerly wave field reaching Orange County now, while longer-period SW/WSW energy is also present regionally. This supports the MODERATE assessment rather than indicating a September 7-level event. Capistrano Beach Nearshore (measured): 4.2 ft significant wave height (Hs), 10.5 sec, 198° (SSW), fresh at about 7:27 AM. Oceanside Offshore: 3.9 ft, 12.5 sec, 188° (S). San Pedro South: 4.6 ft, 10.5 sec, 171° (S). Leucadia Nearshore: 3.1 ft, 18.2 sec, 239° (WSW). Del Mar Nearshore: 3.3 ft, 16.7 sec, 239° (WSW). The network therefore shows both the shorter-period southerly energy and a separate long-period SW/WSW component. This is materially more useful than relying on modeled surf alone. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3–5 ft with local sets to 7 ft today, swell from 180°, with HIGH rip-current risk. Dana Point modeling shows about 3 ft this morning building to 3.5 ft this afternoon/evening, with a 16-sec SSW primary swell. The measured nearshore data broadly support the forecast, although the longest-period energy is currently more evident at stations south of Orange County. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. Newport Beach high tides: 5.4 ft at 8:33 AM and 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM. Elevated south swell plus long-period energy creates dangerous rip currents, erosion and localized overtopping/flooding risk at vulnerable beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 calibration based on current evidence. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated southerly surf and dangerous currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal risk remains elevated; tropical moisture begins approaching. Sunday — MODERATE, with potential to increase. NWS San Diego now highlights an important compound-risk factor: elevated background water level + S/SW swell from Rachel + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding, especially Sunday. Westerly coastal-water gusts of 20–30 mph are possible. Monday — MODERATE. Residual coastal effects plus rain/wind remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory extends through 2 PM Tuesday. Continue watching additional swell energy and the evolving storm/trough interaction. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel weakened to a 70-mph tropical storm at 2 AM PDT, 895 miles west of southern Baja. NHC expects continued weakening and a northeast turn toward northern Baja. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. The coastal concern is swell plus later moisture/wind interaction, not a hurricane landfall in Southern California. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: NWS San Diego reports its tide gauge is about 18 inches higher than a year ago, attributing the elevated level to warmer-water thermal expansion, strengthening El Niño and the latest Kelvin wave. This elevated baseline increases sensitivity to swell and wind-driven surge. No projected Kelvin-wave amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No meaningful improvement: conditions remain unfavorable for natural sand recovery while elevated southerly swell persists. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #45; NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal Flood Advisory; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard AFD; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Dana Point surf model; NOAA Kelvin-wave information.
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel weakens, but measured buoy data confirm elevated southerly swell; coastal risk remains MODERATE. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW The key new evidence is measured buoy data. The Southern California network confirms an active southerly wave field reaching Orange County now, while longer-period SW/WSW energy is also present regionally. This supports the MODERATE assessment rather than indicating a September 7-level event. Capistrano Beach Nearshore (measured): 4.2 ft significant wave height (Hs), 10.5 sec, 198° (SSW), fresh at about 7:27 AM. Oceanside Offshore: 3.9 ft, 12.5 sec, 188° (S). San Pedro South: 4.6 ft, 10.5 sec, 171° (S). Leucadia Nearshore: 3.1 ft, 18.2 sec, 239° (WSW). Del Mar Nearshore: 3.3 ft, 16.7 sec, 239° (WSW). The network therefore shows both the shorter-period southerly energy and a separate long-period SW/WSW component. This is materially more useful than relying on modeled surf alone. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3–5 ft with local sets to 7 ft today, swell from 180°, with HIGH rip-current risk. Dana Point modeling shows about 3 ft this morning building to 3.5 ft this afternoon/evening, with a 16-sec SSW primary swell. The measured nearshore data broadly support the forecast, although the longest-period energy is currently more evident at stations south of Orange County. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. Newport Beach high tides: 5.4 ft at 8:33 AM and 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM. Elevated south swell plus long-period energy creates dangerous rip currents, erosion and localized overtopping/flooding risk at vulnerable beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 calibration based on current evidence. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated southerly surf and dangerous currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal risk remains elevated; tropical moisture begins approaching. Sunday — MODERATE, with potential to increase. NWS San Diego now highlights an important compound-risk factor: elevated background water level + S/SW swell from Rachel + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding, especially Sunday. Westerly coastal-water gusts of 20–30 mph are possible. Monday — MODERATE. Residual coastal effects plus rain/wind remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory extends through 2 PM Tuesday. Continue watching additional swell energy and the evolving storm/trough interaction. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel weakened to a 70-mph tropical storm at 2 AM PDT, 895 miles west of southern Baja. NHC expects continued weakening and a northeast turn toward northern Baja. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. The coastal concern is swell plus later moisture/wind interaction, not a hurricane landfall in Southern California. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: NWS San Diego reports its tide gauge is about 18 inches higher than a year ago, attributing the elevated level to warmer-water thermal expansion, strengthening El Niño and the latest Kelvin wave. This elevated baseline increases sensitivity to swell and wind-driven surge. No projected Kelvin-wave amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No meaningful improvement: conditions remain unfavorable for natural sand recovery while elevated southerly swell persists. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #45; NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal Flood Advisory; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard AFD; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Dana Point surf model; NOAA Kelvin-wave information.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel weakens, but measured buoy data confirm elevated southerly swell; coastal risk remains MODERATE. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW The key new evidence is measured buoy data. The Southern California network confirms an active southerly wave field reaching Orange County now, while longer-period SW/WSW energy is also present regionally. This supports the MODERATE assessment rather than indicating a September 7-level event. Capistrano Beach Nearshore (measured): 4.2 ft significant wave height (Hs), 10.5 sec, 198° (SSW), fresh at about 7:27 AM. Oceanside Offshore: 3.9 ft, 12.5 sec, 188° (S). San Pedro South: 4.6 ft, 10.5 sec, 171° (S). Leucadia Nearshore: 3.1 ft, 18.2 sec, 239° (WSW). Del Mar Nearshore: 3.3 ft, 16.7 sec, 239° (WSW). The network therefore shows both the shorter-period southerly energy and a separate long-period SW/WSW component. This is materially more useful than relying on modeled surf alone. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3–5 ft with local sets to 7 ft today, swell from 180°, with HIGH rip-current risk. Dana Point modeling shows about 3 ft this morning building to 3.5 ft this afternoon/evening, with a 16-sec SSW primary swell. The measured nearshore data broadly support the forecast, although the longest-period energy is currently more evident at stations south of Orange County. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. Newport Beach high tides: 5.4 ft at 8:33 AM and 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM. Elevated south swell plus long-period energy creates dangerous rip currents, erosion and localized overtopping/flooding risk at vulnerable beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 calibration based on current evidence. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated southerly surf and dangerous currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal risk remains elevated; tropical moisture begins approaching. Sunday — MODERATE, with potential to increase. NWS San Diego now highlights an important compound-risk factor: elevated background water level + S/SW swell from Rachel + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding, especially Sunday. Westerly coastal-water gusts of 20–30 mph are possible. Monday — MODERATE. Residual coastal effects plus rain/wind remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory extends through 2 PM Tuesday. Continue watching additional swell energy and the evolving storm/trough interaction. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel weakened to a 70-mph tropical storm at 2 AM PDT, 895 miles west of southern Baja. NHC expects continued weakening and a northeast turn toward northern Baja. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. The coastal concern is swell plus later moisture/wind interaction, not a hurricane landfall in Southern California. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: NWS San Diego reports its tide gauge is about 18 inches higher than a year ago, attributing the elevated level to warmer-water thermal expansion, strengthening El Niño and the latest Kelvin wave. This elevated baseline increases sensitivity to swell and wind-driven surge. No projected Kelvin-wave amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No meaningful improvement: conditions remain unfavorable for natural sand recovery while elevated southerly swell persists. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #45; NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal Flood Advisory; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard AFD; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Dana Point surf model; NOAA Kelvin-wave information.
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@WeatherProf No, there is no forecast or model that suggests that a hurricane will hit California.
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel Is Not Forecast to Hit Southern California as a Hurricane, as Some Media Outlets Claim Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 9:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does forecast Rachel to turn sharply northeast toward northern Baja/Southern California, but not to arrive as a hurricane. At 8 PM Rachel had weakened to 75 mph. NHC forecasts tropical-storm strength during the approach, then post-tropical status inland. The real hazards are elevated surf/rip currents now, repeated high-water flooding/erosion, and increasing rain/wind Sunday–Tuesday. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE. Tide: Newport Beach evening high was 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM Mean Lower Low Water. Waves: Fresh 8:56 PM buoy observations: Oceanside Offshore 3.6 ft at 12 sec from south (185°); San Pedro 5.2 ft at 12 sec from south (174°); San Pedro South 5.9 ft at 11 sec from south (171°). Capistrano’s latest direct feed is several hours old, so it is not treated as current. Why it matters: Rachel-related southern energy is established, but the regional wave field remains moderate—not a September 7-type wave-energy environment. Thursday — MODERATE: National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts 3–5 ft surf, local sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Surf plus elevated water levels can cause localized flooding and erosion. Friday — MODERATE: Similar surf and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport Beach morning astronomical high is 5.7 ft at 8:58 AM. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE: Another south swell and elevated high-water cycles maintain flooding/erosion risk even as Rachel weakens. Sunday — MODERATE, changing hazard: Focus shifts toward Rachel’s remnants interacting with the approaching trough, with increasing rain and southwest/west winds. Monday — MODERATE: Rain/wind impacts remain possible; NWS expects the greatest rain chances Sunday–Monday. Beyond five days: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday, with repeated high-water cycles and elevated surf maintaining flooding/erosion risk. For beachgoers, rip currents are the clearest immediate danger. For beaches, repeated high water plus elevated surf creates flooding/erosion risk. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current measured wave energy does not support September 7-level impacts, although the highest-water periods warrant attention. TROPICAL STORMS — FACTS VS HEADLINES At 8 PM Rachel was 840 miles west of southern Baja, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 75-mph winds. NHC forecasts about 50 mph by Friday, then a sharp northeast acceleration. Its current track places Rachel near 28.0°N, 118.2°W Saturday afternoon at about 50 mph, then inland/post-tropical Sunday. NHC explicitly says Rachel is expected to approach extreme northern Baja and Southern California at tropical-storm strength, potentially bringing strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain. That deserves monitoring. It is materially different from saying a hurricane is forecast to strike Southern California. NWS San Diego expects a low to absorb Rachel’s remaining moisture, producing showers Sunday–Tuesday. Current guidance allows roughly 0.5–2 inches of event rainfall in portions of the region, highest in mountains, with coastal/valley gusts around 20–30 mph Sunday–Monday. Bottom line: Rachel’s unusual trajectory is real; the hurricane-landfall framing is not. Orange County coastal risk remains MODERATE, not HIGH or SEVERE. We will escalate only if observations or official guidance justify it. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #44⁠; NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion⁠; NWS Orange County Surf Zone Forecast⁠; NWS Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC Capistrano buoy data⁠; Dana Point local surf model⁠.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel Is Not Forecast to Hit Southern California as a Hurricane, as Some Media Outlets Claim Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 9:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does forecast Rachel to turn sharply northeast toward northern Baja/Southern California, but not to arrive as a hurricane. At 8 PM Rachel had weakened to 75 mph. NHC forecasts tropical-storm strength during the approach, then post-tropical status inland. The real hazards are elevated surf/rip currents now, repeated high-water flooding/erosion, and increasing rain/wind Sunday–Tuesday. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE. Tide: Newport Beach evening high was 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM Mean Lower Low Water. Waves: Fresh 8:56 PM buoy observations: Oceanside Offshore 3.6 ft at 12 sec from south (185°); San Pedro 5.2 ft at 12 sec from south (174°); San Pedro South 5.9 ft at 11 sec from south (171°). Capistrano’s latest direct feed is several hours old, so it is not treated as current. Why it matters: Rachel-related southern energy is established, but the regional wave field remains moderate—not a September 7-type wave-energy environment. Thursday — MODERATE: National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts 3–5 ft surf, local sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Surf plus elevated water levels can cause localized flooding and erosion. Friday — MODERATE: Similar surf and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport Beach morning astronomical high is 5.7 ft at 8:58 AM. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE: Another south swell and elevated high-water cycles maintain flooding/erosion risk even as Rachel weakens. Sunday — MODERATE, changing hazard: Focus shifts toward Rachel’s remnants interacting with the approaching trough, with increasing rain and southwest/west winds. Monday — MODERATE: Rain/wind impacts remain possible; NWS expects the greatest rain chances Sunday–Monday. Beyond five days: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday, with repeated high-water cycles and elevated surf maintaining flooding/erosion risk. For beachgoers, rip currents are the clearest immediate danger. For beaches, repeated high water plus elevated surf creates flooding/erosion risk. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current measured wave energy does not support September 7-level impacts, although the highest-water periods warrant attention. TROPICAL STORMS — FACTS VS HEADLINES At 8 PM Rachel was 840 miles west of southern Baja, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 75-mph winds. NHC forecasts about 50 mph by Friday, then a sharp northeast acceleration. Its current track places Rachel near 28.0°N, 118.2°W Saturday afternoon at about 50 mph, then inland/post-tropical Sunday. NHC explicitly says Rachel is expected to approach extreme northern Baja and Southern California at tropical-storm strength, potentially bringing strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain. That deserves monitoring. It is materially different from saying a hurricane is forecast to strike Southern California. NWS San Diego expects a low to absorb Rachel’s remaining moisture, producing showers Sunday–Tuesday. Current guidance allows roughly 0.5–2 inches of event rainfall in portions of the region, highest in mountains, with coastal/valley gusts around 20–30 mph Sunday–Monday. Bottom line: Rachel’s unusual trajectory is real; the hurricane-landfall framing is not. Orange County coastal risk remains MODERATE, not HIGH or SEVERE. We will escalate only if observations or official guidance justify it. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #44⁠; NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion⁠; NWS Orange County Surf Zone Forecast⁠; NWS Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC Capistrano buoy data⁠; Dana Point local surf model⁠.
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel weakens, but measured buoy data confirm elevated southerly swell; coastal risk remains MODERATE. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW The key new evidence is measured buoy data. The Southern California network confirms an active southerly wave field reaching Orange County now, while longer-period SW/WSW energy is also present regionally. This supports the MODERATE assessment rather than indicating a September 7-level event. Capistrano Beach Nearshore (measured): 4.2 ft significant wave height (Hs), 10.5 sec, 198° (SSW), fresh at about 7:27 AM. Oceanside Offshore: 3.9 ft, 12.5 sec, 188° (S). San Pedro South: 4.6 ft, 10.5 sec, 171° (S). Leucadia Nearshore: 3.1 ft, 18.2 sec, 239° (WSW). Del Mar Nearshore: 3.3 ft, 16.7 sec, 239° (WSW). The network therefore shows both the shorter-period southerly energy and a separate long-period SW/WSW component. This is materially more useful than relying on modeled surf alone. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3��5 ft with local sets to 7 ft today, swell from 180°, with HIGH rip-current risk. Dana Point modeling shows about 3 ft this morning building to 3.5 ft this afternoon/evening, with a 16-sec SSW primary swell. The measured nearshore data broadly support the forecast, although the longest-period energy is currently more evident at stations south of Orange County. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. Newport Beach high tides: 5.4 ft at 8:33 AM and 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM. Elevated south swell plus long-period energy creates dangerous rip currents, erosion and localized overtopping/flooding risk at vulnerable beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 calibration based on current evidence. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated southerly surf and dangerous currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal risk remains elevated; tropical moisture begins approaching. Sunday — MODERATE, with potential to increase. NWS San Diego now highlights an important compound-risk factor: elevated background water level + S/SW swell from Rachel + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding, especially Sunday. Westerly coastal-water gusts of 20–30 mph are possible. Monday — MODERATE. Residual coastal effects plus rain/wind remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory extends through 2 PM Tuesday. Continue watching additional swell energy and the evolving storm/trough interaction. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel weakened to a 70-mph tropical storm at 2 AM PDT, 895 miles west of southern Baja. NHC expects continued weakening and a northeast turn toward northern Baja. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. The coastal concern is swell plus later moisture/wind interaction, not a hurricane landfall in Southern California. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: NWS San Diego reports its tide gauge is about 18 inches higher than a year ago, attributing the elevated level to warmer-water thermal expansion, strengthening El Niño and the latest Kelvin wave. This elevated baseline increases sensitivity to swell and wind-driven surge. No projected Kelvin-wave amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No meaningful improvement: conditions remain unfavorable for natural sand recovery while elevated southerly swell persists. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #45; NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal Flood Advisory; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard AFD; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Dana Point surf model; NOAA Kelvin-wave information.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel weakens, but measured buoy data confirm elevated southerly swell; coastal risk remains MODERATE. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 8, 2026 — 8:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW The key new evidence is measured buoy data. The Southern California network confirms an active southerly wave field reaching Orange County now, while longer-period SW/WSW energy is also present regionally. This supports the MODERATE assessment rather than indicating a September 7-level event. Capistrano Beach Nearshore (measured): 4.2 ft significant wave height (Hs), 10.5 sec, 198° (SSW), fresh at about 7:27 AM. Oceanside Offshore: 3.9 ft, 12.5 sec, 188° (S). San Pedro South: 4.6 ft, 10.5 sec, 171° (S). Leucadia Nearshore: 3.1 ft, 18.2 sec, 239° (WSW). Del Mar Nearshore: 3.3 ft, 16.7 sec, 239° (WSW). The network therefore shows both the shorter-period southerly energy and a separate long-period SW/WSW component. This is materially more useful than relying on modeled surf alone. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3��5 ft with local sets to 7 ft today, swell from 180°, with HIGH rip-current risk. Dana Point modeling shows about 3 ft this morning building to 3.5 ft this afternoon/evening, with a 16-sec SSW primary swell. The measured nearshore data broadly support the forecast, although the longest-period energy is currently more evident at stations south of Orange County. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. Newport Beach high tides: 5.4 ft at 8:33 AM and 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM. Elevated south swell plus long-period energy creates dangerous rip currents, erosion and localized overtopping/flooding risk at vulnerable beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains below the September 7 calibration based on current evidence. Friday — MODERATE. Elevated southerly surf and dangerous currents continue. Beach Hazards Statement remains through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE. Rachel weakens while turning northeast. Coastal risk remains elevated; tropical moisture begins approaching. Sunday — MODERATE, with potential to increase. NWS San Diego now highlights an important compound-risk factor: elevated background water level + S/SW swell from Rachel + wind-driven surge could increase coastal flooding, especially Sunday. Westerly coastal-water gusts of 20–30 mph are possible. Monday — MODERATE. Residual coastal effects plus rain/wind remain possible. Beyond day 5: Coastal Flood Advisory extends through 2 PM Tuesday. Continue watching additional swell energy and the evolving storm/trough interaction. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel weakened to a 70-mph tropical storm at 2 AM PDT, 895 miles west of southern Baja. NHC expects continued weakening and a northeast turn toward northern Baja. It is not forecast to hit Southern California as a hurricane, as some media outlets claim. The coastal concern is swell plus later moisture/wind interaction, not a hurricane landfall in Southern California. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Material update: NWS San Diego reports its tide gauge is about 18 inches higher than a year ago, attributing the elevated level to warmer-water thermal expansion, strengthening El Niño and the latest Kelvin wave. This elevated baseline increases sensitivity to swell and wind-driven surge. No projected Kelvin-wave amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS No meaningful improvement: conditions remain unfavorable for natural sand recovery while elevated southerly swell persists. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #45; NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and Coastal Flood Advisory; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard AFD; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Dana Point surf model; NOAA Kelvin-wave information.
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@KTLA This is false information. It’s been many hours since this was refuted by the National Weather Service and yet you continue to spew this garbage to get clicks.
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel Is Not Forecast to Hit Southern California as a Hurricane, as Some Media Outlets Claim Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 9:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does forecast Rachel to turn sharply northeast toward northern Baja/Southern California, but not to arrive as a hurricane. At 8 PM Rachel had weakened to 75 mph. NHC forecasts tropical-storm strength during the approach, then post-tropical status inland. The real hazards are elevated surf/rip currents now, repeated high-water flooding/erosion, and increasing rain/wind Sunday–Tuesday. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE. Tide: Newport Beach evening high was 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM Mean Lower Low Water. Waves: Fresh 8:56 PM buoy observations: Oceanside Offshore 3.6 ft at 12 sec from south (185°); San Pedro 5.2 ft at 12 sec from south (174°); San Pedro South 5.9 ft at 11 sec from south (171°). Capistrano’s latest direct feed is several hours old, so it is not treated as current. Why it matters: Rachel-related southern energy is established, but the regional wave field remains moderate—not a September 7-type wave-energy environment. Thursday — MODERATE: National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts 3–5 ft surf, local sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Surf plus elevated water levels can cause localized flooding and erosion. Friday — MODERATE: Similar surf and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport Beach morning astronomical high is 5.7 ft at 8:58 AM. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE: Another south swell and elevated high-water cycles maintain flooding/erosion risk even as Rachel weakens. Sunday — MODERATE, changing hazard: Focus shifts toward Rachel’s remnants interacting with the approaching trough, with increasing rain and southwest/west winds. Monday — MODERATE: Rain/wind impacts remain possible; NWS expects the greatest rain chances Sunday–Monday. Beyond five days: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday, with repeated high-water cycles and elevated surf maintaining flooding/erosion risk. For beachgoers, rip currents are the clearest immediate danger. For beaches, repeated high water plus elevated surf creates flooding/erosion risk. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current measured wave energy does not support September 7-level impacts, although the highest-water periods warrant attention. TROPICAL STORMS — FACTS VS HEADLINES At 8 PM Rachel was 840 miles west of southern Baja, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 75-mph winds. NHC forecasts about 50 mph by Friday, then a sharp northeast acceleration. Its current track places Rachel near 28.0°N, 118.2°W Saturday afternoon at about 50 mph, then inland/post-tropical Sunday. NHC explicitly says Rachel is expected to approach extreme northern Baja and Southern California at tropical-storm strength, potentially bringing strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain. That deserves monitoring. It is materially different from saying a hurricane is forecast to strike Southern California. NWS San Diego expects a low to absorb Rachel’s remaining moisture, producing showers Sunday–Tuesday. Current guidance allows roughly 0.5–2 inches of event rainfall in portions of the region, highest in mountains, with coastal/valley gusts around 20–30 mph Sunday–Monday. Bottom line: Rachel’s unusual trajectory is real; the hurricane-landfall framing is not. Orange County coastal risk remains MODERATE, not HIGH or SEVERE. We will escalate only if observations or official guidance justify it. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #44⁠; NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion⁠; NWS Orange County Surf Zone Forecast⁠; NWS Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC Capistrano buoy data⁠; Dana Point local surf model⁠.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel Is Not Forecast to Hit Southern California as a Hurricane, as Some Media Outlets Claim Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 9:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does forecast Rachel to turn sharply northeast toward northern Baja/Southern California, but not to arrive as a hurricane. At 8 PM Rachel had weakened to 75 mph. NHC forecasts tropical-storm strength during the approach, then post-tropical status inland. The real hazards are elevated surf/rip currents now, repeated high-water flooding/erosion, and increasing rain/wind Sunday–Tuesday. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE. Tide: Newport Beach evening high was 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM Mean Lower Low Water. Waves: Fresh 8:56 PM buoy observations: Oceanside Offshore 3.6 ft at 12 sec from south (185°); San Pedro 5.2 ft at 12 sec from south (174°); San Pedro South 5.9 ft at 11 sec from south (171°). Capistrano’s latest direct feed is several hours old, so it is not treated as current. Why it matters: Rachel-related southern energy is established, but the regional wave field remains moderate—not a September 7-type wave-energy environment. Thursday — MODERATE: National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts 3–5 ft surf, local sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Surf plus elevated water levels can cause localized flooding and erosion. Friday — MODERATE: Similar surf and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport Beach morning astronomical high is 5.7 ft at 8:58 AM. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE: Another south swell and elevated high-water cycles maintain flooding/erosion risk even as Rachel weakens. Sunday — MODERATE, changing hazard: Focus shifts toward Rachel’s remnants interacting with the approaching trough, with increasing rain and southwest/west winds. Monday — MODERATE: Rain/wind impacts remain possible; NWS expects the greatest rain chances Sunday–Monday. Beyond five days: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday, with repeated high-water cycles and elevated surf maintaining flooding/erosion risk. For beachgoers, rip currents are the clearest immediate danger. For beaches, repeated high water plus elevated surf creates flooding/erosion risk. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current measured wave energy does not support September 7-level impacts, although the highest-water periods warrant attention. TROPICAL STORMS — FACTS VS HEADLINES At 8 PM Rachel was 840 miles west of southern Baja, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 75-mph winds. NHC forecasts about 50 mph by Friday, then a sharp northeast acceleration. Its current track places Rachel near 28.0°N, 118.2°W Saturday afternoon at about 50 mph, then inland/post-tropical Sunday. NHC explicitly says Rachel is expected to approach extreme northern Baja and Southern California at tropical-storm strength, potentially bringing strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain. That deserves monitoring. It is materially different from saying a hurricane is forecast to strike Southern California. NWS San Diego expects a low to absorb Rachel’s remaining moisture, producing showers Sunday–Tuesday. Current guidance allows roughly 0.5–2 inches of event rainfall in portions of the region, highest in mountains, with coastal/valley gusts around 20–30 mph Sunday–Monday. Bottom line: Rachel’s unusual trajectory is real; the hurricane-landfall framing is not. Orange County coastal risk remains MODERATE, not HIGH or SEVERE. We will escalate only if observations or official guidance justify it. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #44⁠; NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion⁠; NWS Orange County Surf Zone Forecast⁠; NWS Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC Capistrano buoy data⁠; Dana Point local surf model⁠.
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel Is Not Forecast to Hit Southern California as a Hurricane, as Some Media Outlets Claim Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 9:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does forecast Rachel to turn sharply northeast toward northern Baja/Southern California, but not to arrive as a hurricane. At 8 PM Rachel had weakened to 75 mph. NHC forecasts tropical-storm strength during the approach, then post-tropical status inland. The real hazards are elevated surf/rip currents now, repeated high-water flooding/erosion, and increasing rain/wind Sunday–Tuesday. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE. Tide: Newport Beach evening high was 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM Mean Lower Low Water. Waves: Fresh 8:56 PM buoy observations: Oceanside Offshore 3.6 ft at 12 sec from south (185°); San Pedro 5.2 ft at 12 sec from south (174°); San Pedro South 5.9 ft at 11 sec from south (171°). Capistrano’s latest direct feed is several hours old, so it is not treated as current. Why it matters: Rachel-related southern energy is established, but the regional wave field remains moderate—not a September 7-type wave-energy environment. Thursday — MODERATE: National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts 3–5 ft surf, local sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Surf plus elevated water levels can cause localized flooding and erosion. Friday — MODERATE: Similar surf and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport Beach morning astronomical high is 5.7 ft at 8:58 AM. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE: Another south swell and elevated high-water cycles maintain flooding/erosion risk even as Rachel weakens. Sunday — MODERATE, changing hazard: Focus shifts toward Rachel’s remnants interacting with the approaching trough, with increasing rain and southwest/west winds. Monday — MODERATE: Rain/wind impacts remain possible; NWS expects the greatest rain chances Sunday–Monday. Beyond five days: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday, with repeated high-water cycles and elevated surf maintaining flooding/erosion risk. For beachgoers, rip currents are the clearest immediate danger. For beaches, repeated high water plus elevated surf creates flooding/erosion risk. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current measured wave energy does not support September 7-level impacts, although the highest-water periods warrant attention. TROPICAL STORMS — FACTS VS HEADLINES At 8 PM Rachel was 840 miles west of southern Baja, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 75-mph winds. NHC forecasts about 50 mph by Friday, then a sharp northeast acceleration. Its current track places Rachel near 28.0°N, 118.2°W Saturday afternoon at about 50 mph, then inland/post-tropical Sunday. NHC explicitly says Rachel is expected to approach extreme northern Baja and Southern California at tropical-storm strength, potentially bringing strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain. That deserves monitoring. It is materially different from saying a hurricane is forecast to strike Southern California. NWS San Diego expects a low to absorb Rachel’s remaining moisture, producing showers Sunday–Tuesday. Current guidance allows roughly 0.5–2 inches of event rainfall in portions of the region, highest in mountains, with coastal/valley gusts around 20–30 mph Sunday–Monday. Bottom line: Rachel’s unusual trajectory is real; the hurricane-landfall framing is not. Orange County coastal risk remains MODERATE, not HIGH or SEVERE. We will escalate only if observations or official guidance justify it. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #44⁠; NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion⁠; NWS Orange County Surf Zone Forecast⁠; NWS Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC Capistrano buoy data⁠; Dana Point local surf model⁠.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel Is Not Forecast to Hit Southern California as a Hurricane, as Some Media Outlets Claim Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 9:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does forecast Rachel to turn sharply northeast toward northern Baja/Southern California, but not to arrive as a hurricane. At 8 PM Rachel had weakened to 75 mph. NHC forecasts tropical-storm strength during the approach, then post-tropical status inland. The real hazards are elevated surf/rip currents now, repeated high-water flooding/erosion, and increasing rain/wind Sunday–Tuesday. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE. Tide: Newport Beach evening high was 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM Mean Lower Low Water. Waves: Fresh 8:56 PM buoy observations: Oceanside Offshore 3.6 ft at 12 sec from south (185°); San Pedro 5.2 ft at 12 sec from south (174°); San Pedro South 5.9 ft at 11 sec from south (171°). Capistrano’s latest direct feed is several hours old, so it is not treated as current. Why it matters: Rachel-related southern energy is established, but the regional wave field remains moderate—not a September 7-type wave-energy environment. Thursday — MODERATE: National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts 3–5 ft surf, local sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Surf plus elevated water levels can cause localized flooding and erosion. Friday — MODERATE: Similar surf and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport Beach morning astronomical high is 5.7 ft at 8:58 AM. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE: Another south swell and elevated high-water cycles maintain flooding/erosion risk even as Rachel weakens. Sunday — MODERATE, changing hazard: Focus shifts toward Rachel’s remnants interacting with the approaching trough, with increasing rain and southwest/west winds. Monday — MODERATE: Rain/wind impacts remain possible; NWS expects the greatest rain chances Sunday–Monday. Beyond five days: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday, with repeated high-water cycles and elevated surf maintaining flooding/erosion risk. For beachgoers, rip currents are the clearest immediate danger. For beaches, repeated high water plus elevated surf creates flooding/erosion risk. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current measured wave energy does not support September 7-level impacts, although the highest-water periods warrant attention. TROPICAL STORMS — FACTS VS HEADLINES At 8 PM Rachel was 840 miles west of southern Baja, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 75-mph winds. NHC forecasts about 50 mph by Friday, then a sharp northeast acceleration. Its current track places Rachel near 28.0°N, 118.2°W Saturday afternoon at about 50 mph, then inland/post-tropical Sunday. NHC explicitly says Rachel is expected to approach extreme northern Baja and Southern California at tropical-storm strength, potentially bringing strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain. That deserves monitoring. It is materially different from saying a hurricane is forecast to strike Southern California. NWS San Diego expects a low to absorb Rachel’s remaining moisture, producing showers Sunday–Tuesday. Current guidance allows roughly 0.5–2 inches of event rainfall in portions of the region, highest in mountains, with coastal/valley gusts around 20–30 mph Sunday–Monday. Bottom line: Rachel’s unusual trajectory is real; the hurricane-landfall framing is not. Orange County coastal risk remains MODERATE, not HIGH or SEVERE. We will escalate only if observations or official guidance justify it. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #44⁠; NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion⁠; NWS Orange County Surf Zone Forecast⁠; NWS Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC Capistrano buoy data⁠; Dana Point local surf model⁠.
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@danboii @politico Your entire feed shows that you are deranged with hate. What is it ? Your neighbor didn’t invite you for Passover dinner?
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. @danboii @politico Your entire feed shows that you are deranged with hate. What is it ? Your neighbor didn’t invite you for Passover dinner? https://t.co/IHG9SHwiEC
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@LaurentALambert @washingtonpost Haaretz 🤣🤣🤣 Seriously?
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. @LaurentALambert @washingtonpost Haaretz 🤣🤣🤣 Seriously? https://t.co/jOVQCarDyP
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel Is Not Forecast to Hit Southern California as a Hurricane, as Some Media Outlets Claim Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 9:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does forecast Rachel to turn sharply northeast toward northern Baja/Southern California, but not to arrive as a hurricane. At 8 PM Rachel had weakened to 75 mph. NHC forecasts tropical-storm strength during the approach, then post-tropical status inland. The real hazards are elevated surf/rip currents now, repeated high-water flooding/erosion, and increasing rain/wind Sunday–Tuesday. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE. Tide: Newport Beach evening high was 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM Mean Lower Low Water. Waves: Fresh 8:56 PM buoy observations: Oceanside Offshore 3.6 ft at 12 sec from south (185°); San Pedro 5.2 ft at 12 sec from south (174°); San Pedro South 5.9 ft at 11 sec from south (171°). Capistrano’s latest direct feed is several hours old, so it is not treated as current. Why it matters: Rachel-related southern energy is established, but the regional wave field remains moderate—not a September 7-type wave-energy environment. Thursday — MODERATE: National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts 3–5 ft surf, local sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Surf plus elevated water levels can cause localized flooding and erosion. Friday — MODERATE: Similar surf and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport Beach morning astronomical high is 5.7 ft at 8:58 AM. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE: Another south swell and elevated high-water cycles maintain flooding/erosion risk even as Rachel weakens. Sunday — MODERATE, changing hazard: Focus shifts toward Rachel’s remnants interacting with the approaching trough, with increasing rain and southwest/west winds. Monday — MODERATE: Rain/wind impacts remain possible; NWS expects the greatest rain chances Sunday–Monday. Beyond five days: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday, with repeated high-water cycles and elevated surf maintaining flooding/erosion risk. For beachgoers, rip currents are the clearest immediate danger. For beaches, repeated high water plus elevated surf creates flooding/erosion risk. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current measured wave energy does not support September 7-level impacts, although the highest-water periods warrant attention. TROPICAL STORMS — FACTS VS HEADLINES At 8 PM Rachel was 840 miles west of southern Baja, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 75-mph winds. NHC forecasts about 50 mph by Friday, then a sharp northeast acceleration. Its current track places Rachel near 28.0°N, 118.2°W Saturday afternoon at about 50 mph, then inland/post-tropical Sunday. NHC explicitly says Rachel is expected to approach extreme northern Baja and Southern California at tropical-storm strength, potentially bringing strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain. That deserves monitoring. It is materially different from saying a hurricane is forecast to strike Southern California. NWS San Diego expects a low to absorb Rachel’s remaining moisture, producing showers Sunday–Tuesday. Current guidance allows roughly 0.5–2 inches of event rainfall in portions of the region, highest in mountains, with coastal/valley gusts around 20–30 mph Sunday–Monday. Bottom line: Rachel’s unusual trajectory is real; the hurricane-landfall framing is not. Orange County coastal risk remains MODERATE, not HIGH or SEVERE. We will escalate only if observations or official guidance justify it. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #44⁠; NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion⁠; NWS Orange County Surf Zone Forecast⁠; NWS Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC Capistrano buoy data⁠; Dana Point local surf model⁠.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Rachel Is Not Forecast to Hit Southern California as a Hurricane, as Some Media Outlets Claim Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 9:45 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does forecast Rachel to turn sharply northeast toward northern Baja/Southern California, but not to arrive as a hurricane. At 8 PM Rachel had weakened to 75 mph. NHC forecasts tropical-storm strength during the approach, then post-tropical status inland. The real hazards are elevated surf/rip currents now, repeated high-water flooding/erosion, and increasing rain/wind Sunday–Tuesday. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE. Tide: Newport Beach evening high was 5.3 ft at 8:37 PM Mean Lower Low Water. Waves: Fresh 8:56 PM buoy observations: Oceanside Offshore 3.6 ft at 12 sec from south (185°); San Pedro 5.2 ft at 12 sec from south (174°); San Pedro South 5.9 ft at 11 sec from south (171°). Capistrano’s latest direct feed is several hours old, so it is not treated as current. Why it matters: Rachel-related southern energy is established, but the regional wave field remains moderate—not a September 7-type wave-energy environment. Thursday — MODERATE: National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts 3–5 ft surf, local sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Surf plus elevated water levels can cause localized flooding and erosion. Friday — MODERATE: Similar surf and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport Beach morning astronomical high is 5.7 ft at 8:58 AM. Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM. Saturday — MODERATE: Another south swell and elevated high-water cycles maintain flooding/erosion risk even as Rachel weakens. Sunday — MODERATE, changing hazard: Focus shifts toward Rachel’s remnants interacting with the approaching trough, with increasing rain and southwest/west winds. Monday — MODERATE: Rain/wind impacts remain possible; NWS expects the greatest rain chances Sunday–Monday. Beyond five days: Coastal Flood Advisory remains through 2 PM Tuesday, with repeated high-water cycles and elevated surf maintaining flooding/erosion risk. For beachgoers, rip currents are the clearest immediate danger. For beaches, repeated high water plus elevated surf creates flooding/erosion risk. For immediately ocean-adjacent property, current measured wave energy does not support September 7-level impacts, although the highest-water periods warrant attention. TROPICAL STORMS — FACTS VS HEADLINES At 8 PM Rachel was 840 miles west of southern Baja, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 75-mph winds. NHC forecasts about 50 mph by Friday, then a sharp northeast acceleration. Its current track places Rachel near 28.0°N, 118.2°W Saturday afternoon at about 50 mph, then inland/post-tropical Sunday. NHC explicitly says Rachel is expected to approach extreme northern Baja and Southern California at tropical-storm strength, potentially bringing strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain. That deserves monitoring. It is materially different from saying a hurricane is forecast to strike Southern California. NWS San Diego expects a low to absorb Rachel’s remaining moisture, producing showers Sunday–Tuesday. Current guidance allows roughly 0.5–2 inches of event rainfall in portions of the region, highest in mountains, with coastal/valley gusts around 20–30 mph Sunday–Monday. Bottom line: Rachel’s unusual trajectory is real; the hurricane-landfall framing is not. Orange County coastal risk remains MODERATE, not HIGH or SEVERE. We will escalate only if observations or official guidance justify it. Sources: NHC Rachel Advisory/Discussion #44⁠; NWS San Diego Area Forecast Discussion⁠; NWS Orange County Surf Zone Forecast⁠; NWS Coastal Flood Advisory; NDBC Capistrano buoy data⁠; Dana Point local surf model⁠.
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@latimes This is garbage reporting. The kelvin wave is expected to raise water levels by 6 inches when it arrives and there is no evidence whatsoever that it has arrived.
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@PeopleofNY27 @CBSNews How about we start with some facts instead of this virtuous bullshit you just posted.
OCBeachStatus's tweet photo. @PeopleofNY27 @CBSNews How about we start with some facts instead of this virtuous bullshit you just posted. https://t.co/LOksVjFPkD
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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Coastal Flood Advisory Extended Through Tuesday as Elevated Water Levels Become a Longer-Duration Hazard Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 — 6:30 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE Scale: Low → Moderate → High → Severe WHAT MATTERS NOW: This is a material change from today’s earlier assessment. At 2:01 PM, the National Weather Service (NWS) extended the Orange and San Diego County Coastal Flood Advisory from Friday morning all the way through 2 PM Tuesday, October 13, substantially lengthening the coastal-risk window. The Beach Hazards Statement remains through Friday evening with 3–6 ft surf and dangerous rip currents. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE: Elevated water levels and southern swell continue. NWS expects minor flooding of vulnerable beach parking lots, boardwalks and roads, minor erosion, and strong rip currents. Thursday — MODERATE, locally elevated: The combination of 3–6 ft surf, strong rip currents and high-water cycles remains the primary concern. For beachgoers, rip currents are the dominant hazard; for exposed beaches, run-up and erosion are the principal concerns; properties extremely close to the ocean have greater exposure during the highest-water periods. Friday — MODERATE: Beach Hazards Statement continues through 11 PM, but coastal-flood risk no longer ends Friday morning as previously forecast. Saturday — MODERATE water-level risk: The important change is persistence: even as the current Rachel-generated surf contribution evolves, anomalously high coastal water levels remain sufficient for NWS to maintain the Coastal Flood Advisory. Sunday — MODERATE water-level risk: Continued vulnerability around high tides; wave conditions will determine whether impacts remain principally minor flooding or become more erosive. Beyond five days: The Coastal Flood Advisory now explicitly extends through Monday and until 2 PM Tuesday. This is therefore a shifted/extended hazard window—not hazard passage—and will remain under active monitoring. NWS continues to cite 6.5–7.0 ft peak high-water levels during mornings and evenings. The extension is particularly important because it increases the number of high-water cycles capable of producing flooding and erosion even without exceptionally large surf. TROPICAL STORMS Rachel remains one contributor to the southern wave environment, but its changing storm intensity is not itself the reason for this update. The material development is the six-day extension of the official coastal-flood hazard window, indicating that elevated coastal water levels remain consequential well after the original Rachel surf window. This does not presently imply conditions comparable to the September 7, 2026 peak event. Current official expectations remain for primarily minor coastal flooding and erosion in Orange County rather than the much stronger wave-impact environment observed during that event. Sources: NWS San Diego Coastal Flood Advisory — Orange County⁠; NWS San Diego Coastal Hazard Message⁠; NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard coastal advisory⁠.
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@ocregister This post just cost you my subscription. Goodbye.
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