Orange Cat

Musing on life and markets

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@Arkalos77 He did the right thing for his style: bought a cyclical company at trough and sold when it hit mid-cycle multiple. The thesis worked out and he put proceeds into Alphabet, which did pretty well.

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@pandawatch88 The Nvidia related orders allowed Chinese PCB companies to begin raising prices. Before that they were caught in involution too. The generosity of US big tech revived the whole industry ❤️

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell Do ppl dislike him bc how frequently he associated himself with Warren/Munger? I don't quite understand the negative sentiment here

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@Jam_invest didn't understand why this company was consistently valued <10 PE while growing DD...now I do...

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@lhamtil Market became more efficient at pricing stocks and absolute dominance of US mega cap tech

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@the_zack_zhu Shouldn't matter too much if you match currency with expected inflation of that currency + country risk premium of where the money is made. Don't see a point of converting back to local currency if u use USD.

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell These EM indexes are almost always concentrated in financials and real estate...in the case of Vietnam the property cycle is very significant and banking is heavily influenced by RE debt. Maybe intentionally under weighing these two sectors in all EM indexes is the way to go

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell Ya Kun is such a good business. Did some guesstimates with a friend while sitting in a Ya Kun. We thought the payback period for each new YK was probably 3-6 months, depending on rent & traffic.

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell The capital market exists to punish the capitalists!

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@TheStalwart Much like EVs. When u have all major brands and the whole supply chain in a city (Quanzhou), cost of innovation goes down, R&D iteration becomes very fast.

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@rohanpaul_ai Yes and the Chinese are the best alchemists. It's not a coincidence that chip making and model training are dominated by Chinese.

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell These companies are listed so the owner can call themselves "CEO of a publicly listed company"...know a guy did exactly that...baffles why anyone would own his company's stock bc they worth 🅾️

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell Ya, Chiang Mai & Bangkok still the most well known destination.

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@pandawatch88 Wasn't that the story for every company entering China in the early 2000s? Only needed that 1% of TAM...

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell No idea TBH. But one small trend is probably normalizing sentiment on Thailand. Around 2024 there was quite a lot of negative press in China regarding tourists safety in Thailand, that's fading now

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell Nah my friends just go to Sabah. Basically the same as Philippines but less crime

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@illyquid This sucks. Sounded like they have room to adjust prices for ongoing projects but they sure don't.

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@Healthstockpick Thanks. Hope Hillhouse's involvement would unlock some more value here

[Orange Cat @OCatCapital]

@MikeFritzell Midterm coming...NVDA price is losing momentum...stock market IS the US economy...also he can stop the trade any time he wants after midterm