opmpod

A finance podcast about investing, markets, and the big things that are affecting my, your, and other people's money. New episodes weekly.

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

OUT NOW - @LukeGromen on @opmpod arguing that YCC is more likely than Kevin Warsh shrinking the balance sheet.

Watch or listen wherever you get your podcasts:
Apple: https://t.co/AZnnNRkGka
Spotify: https://t.co/Kk4DIUFLhH
YouTube: https://t.co/1OdySCSMtM

[Barbell @barbell_fi]

Moritz Seibert @MoritzSeibert on @OPMpod says it's been "a great year" for trend following. His current portfolio:

"We're still long most of the precious metal markets, definitely we're long gold and silver. We're also long platinum."

"We're short Bitcoin and Ethereum. The crypto markets aren't trading that well, or at least these two."

"We are long the equity markets. No surprise there... We're long the petroleum markets, no surprise there either."

"We're short cocoa since a long time. Again, it's it's a great, great trade."

"Long bean oil is a great one. So, bean oil has been going higher and higher and higher for quite some time now. And that's a market that has become larger in our portfolio, for sure."

"We're still long cotton... It's also a position that now has a footprint in our portfolio."

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

1/ OUT NOW - @rampagingruss on why he believes that treasuries are far more speculative than AI stocks.

He argues on @OPMpod:

>Populism politics mean spending won't be reined in
>Housing affordability has reached unsustainable levels but prices can't fall in nominal terms
>Sees ~7% wage growth and inflation making housing more affordable in real terms
>Inflationary mindset has already set in and loan/credit growth is here
>Yields will need to rise to ~10% to slow loan growth.
>3% real yields are needed to lock in deposits

00:00 Intro
01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky
04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds
08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary
14:12 Japan Leads
16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields
20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB
21:58 High Real Rates New Normal
26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise
29:09 Housing Tug of War
34:02 Politics Converge Anyway
36:03 Chips Are New Oil
38:38 Is AI a Bubble?
44:12 AI and Wage Politics
50:37 Strategic AI Spending
54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks
59:29 Private Credit Red Flags
01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links

Podcast links below👇

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

OUT NOW - @moritzheiden and @moritzseibert on @opmpod talking trend following and their particular high-octane approach @TakaheCapital.

2026 has been a good year for trend followers with lots of single markets, large and small (precious metals, equities, cocoa, petroleum products), undergoing strong trends at some point during the year.

We discussed why they've built a system that trades ~100 individual markets to find a diversity of large and small trends but also leans into the winners and the inevitable volatility that comes with letting them get large in the portfolio.

00:00 Intro
01:14 Do You Need Big Trends
03:21 Smooth vs Choppy Trends
05:00 Oil Curve Positioning
07:43 Model Design Not Discretion
09:24 Why Trend Funds Differ
16:02 Classic Trend Playbooks
19:04 Sizing Beats Entry
25:01 Perpetual Futures Reality
32:41 High Octane Philosophy
35:22 Letting Winners Get Huge
39:04 Why Trends End Late
41:55 Price Only vs Fundamentals
46:28 What’s Trending Now
49:57 Spreads Underperforming
52:37 When Signals Die
57:49 Simple Robust Parameters
01:00:59 Design Without Optimization
01:05:43 Diversification and Investors
01:09:32 Uniqueness and Market Mix
01:14:21 Who Buys High Vol
01:15:54 Conclusion

Check out the full interview and subscribe to @OPMpod on your favorite podcast platform👇

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

OUT NOW - Breaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha

New episode of @opmpod with Sean McGould CIO and CEO of the huge multi-strategy hedge fund manager The Lighthouse Group.

00:00 Japan Market Shift
01:29 Lighthouse Group
04:53 Why Hedge in Bull Runs?
10:43 Equity Issuance Signals
13:33 Capex Versus Meme Raises
16:27 AI Inside Lighthouse
18:20 Specialists vs. Generalists
19:42 AI Fuels Asia Outperformance
21:18 Japan Reforms and Nikkei
24:43 Korea Value Up Program
27:44 Fixing Incentive Imbalances
32:34 Sector Pair Trades Explained
33:56 Factor Neutrality Pitfalls
34:44 AI and Narrative Factors
41:54 Why Liquidity Means Capacity
44:34 Hidden Alpha in Regulation
50:30 Hedging Regulatory Unknowns
53:50 Peak Pod Shop Debate
57:40 Diversification and Market Liquidity

Links👇

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

OUT NOW - "Mr. IPO", professor Jay Ritter, Director of the IPO Initiative at UF's Warrington College of Business for @opmpod to discuss:

-How 2026 IPOs will stack up historically
-Underperformance of IPOs vs the market
-Large IPOs vs small IPOs
-Large IPOs with high P/S
-Why history says humanity wins and investors lose
-The staggering inflows to private markets
-Retail involvement in private markets

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:58 Meet Mr IPO
01:40 2026 is Unprecedented
02:52 Do IPOs Signal Tops
04:27 How IPO Pricing Works
05:57 SpaceX Valuation Risks
09:26 TAM Hype and Cursor
13:27 2026 Versus Past Waves
16:17 Must Own AI Exposure
19:46 Regulation and Unintended Effects
27:29 Geopolitics and Dual Use
29:10 Will IPO Volume Boom?
32:40 VC/PE = No Free Lunch
35:36 Retail Access Fee Stacking
39:14 Volatility Washing and Perps
49:09 Sentiment and Final Takeaways

[opmpod @opmpod]

@JackPatrick06 @fcfyplusg @OnTheTapePod @muddywatersre Thank you!

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

The US is having an industrial renaissance, driven by manufacturing, electrification, & AI.

I spoke with @ChrisSemenuk PM of $RSHO & $VOLT (both outperforming) about the trend on @opmpod.

YT: https://t.co/u1guyww6lU
Apple: https://t.co/aDf4Ht0apg
Spot: https://t.co/89fSqFv705

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

"I think the semiconductor cycle will roll over towards the end of the year or early next year, but I think we have the euphoric part of ahead of us before we get to that part." - @AndreasSteno

Do you feel the euphoria?

Full episode of @opmpod:

YouTube: https://t.co/tjHhSfJqX8
Apple: https://t.co/1rmM0LmSp1
Spotify: https://t.co/VnH7hNbNzJ

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

AI driven unemployment is a bigger risk to real estate investors than higher interest rates.

That's what Tom Shapiro, Founder & CIO of GTIS Partners, argues in his @opmpod interview.

Despite rising risks, there is still plenty of opportunity and AI is actually driving some of it. We discussed:

Why San Francisco is a BUY: While everyone ran away, GTIS has been scooping up apartment buildings in SF. Tom reveals how the AI boom is creating massive demand.

The Sun Belt Danger Zone: Think Austin and Nashville are still unstoppable? Tom explains why these "hot" markets are currently decimated by oversupply, with developers forced to offer up months of free rent.

The Silent Boom in Industrial: GTIS is also betting big on logistics warehouses. Discover why they have eight to ten active development projects to capitalize on the reshoring trend in America.

Vai Brazil: Tom and GTIS have been big investors in Brazilian office and hotels for decades and they are continuing to see growth in LATAM.

Watch the full interview on YouTube: https://t.co/FxLBo4A7H8

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

The private credit problem is really an allocation problem. Too much money concentrated in the hands of managers chasing the same deals.

I spoke with Thomas Lloyd-Jones, CIO of Zenzic Capital about this concentration and why tourist investors are conflating direct lending and real estate private credit.

We also discussed how nascent the European market is with ~80% of RE deals being back originated compared to ~20% in the US.

That is changing though with many banks starting to pull back as Basel III regulation is requiring them to hold more collateral against RE loans making it less attractive.

Check out the full interview 👇
https://t.co/GMjxVTGACI

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

"The best day to sell SpaceX is on Day 9" @MunchingMoez on fading NASDAQ inclusion

YouTube: https://t.co/GMjjm8qxqB
Spotify: https://t.co/j8dNrNOjhH
Apple: https://t.co/WeOnrJTJDz

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

Is your portfolio focused on the "Main Thing"?

Kieran Cavanna, founder and CIO of Old Farm Partners and former head of external managers at Soros Fund Management, joins @opmpod to discuss his high-conviction approach to thematic investing.

YouTube: https://t.co/Xmk9S5uiSm
Apple: https://t.co/bNl3AxeGXR
Spotify: https://t.co/kbqROuiQWN

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

Worried about energy driven stagflation? @AvoryCo founder @_SeanDavid isn't. On the latest @opmpod, he argues...

1) The consumer is stronger than you think
2) The stagflation narrative is fundamentally flawed

Plus, hear how he aligns his macro views with fundamental bottom up analysis and high-conviction tech and consumer bets like $XYZ, $ZM, and $Z.

Watch or listen wherever you get your podcasts👇
YouTube: https://t.co/bxal7huA3I
Spotify: https://t.co/WN3TEEOsjG
Apple: https://t.co/C1lj2xa4Qf

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

EMs are finally outperforming DMs...

Check out my @opmpod interview with @GramercyRK on the drivers, including inflation and central bank policy

Watch on👇
YouTube: https://t.co/HxoR4r6jp6
Spotify: https://t.co/1Irurx76P7
Apple: https://t.co/UEqXa4TLOC

[Bayman11771 @Bayman11771]

This episode is so good. Not necessarily encouraging, but incredibly informative. Well done @opmpod.

https://t.co/S4OiQl8O1u

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

Special @opmpod recorded today after the post from Trump with Nadia from Svelland Capital.

They specialize in commodity & shipping markets. As podcasters like to say, the perfect guest.

YT: https://t.co/BvtVa2eaFb
Apple: https://t.co/Y0osgi5Qq8
Spot: https://t.co/nz0ke88Wzt

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

Global nitrogen production is hurting due to loss of LNG exports from the Gulf.

But how are farmers reacting? @LandFundLP on forward contracting and crop switching.

@opmpod 👇

Apple: https://t.co/qOnIMT9MyM
Spotify: https://t.co/eDk8B5WcNK
YouTube: https://t.co/6yOWoSvB2A

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

1/ Is farmland the ultimate hard asset?🚜

Chris Morris of @LandFundLP explains why. We discuss:

📈 Beating the S&P 500 & low correlation to stocks.
💰 The Mid-South vs Midwest valuation gap.
💧 The hidden 300-year water supply underneath it all. 🤖 How AI data centers and solar are driving up values

Watch the full @opmpod👇
00:00 Intro
00:40 Teucrium SOYB
01:00 Investing in Farmland
04:26 Diversification and Correlation
06:07 Real Assets and New Macro Risks
09:13 Scarcity and Water Thesis
10:48 Protein Demand Multiplier
12:45 How Farmland Returns Work
15:00 AI and Renewable Energy
15:41 Teucrium SOYB
17:02 Community Impact and Ethics
20:21 Who Buys Farmland?
22:47 Why the Mid-South
26:33 Valuation Gap Explained
28:25 Water Rights and Water Scarcity
35:06 Solar Leases Beat Crops
39:23 AI Boosts Farm Profits
42:22 Regenerative Farming and the Three Fs
44:35 Iran Conflict Inputs and Crops
48:26 Subsidies and Rent Security
54:02 Fund Focus and Growth Plans
57:30 Conclusion

[Noel Smith @NoelSmith]

Morning hike listening to @opmpod @maxwiethe @JackFarley96 on tokenized assets.