Observatus Geopoliticus

Géopolitique principalement, mais aussi histoire, actualité, culture et autres...
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[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

Passage de votre serviteur sur #Franceinfo pour papoter du Grand jeu.
(à partir de 32'')
https://t.co/0HGX7b1ZDl

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@TPtiripou Tu attends donc les corrections de tes lecteurs pour essayer de cacher ta bourde ? Il y en a qui osent tout, c'est même à ça qu'on les reconnaît😂

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@Medievalhtybuff Louis XV. The cunt lost a whole empire with smile.
The world would be speaking french now, had it not been for him.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@JFRreiner @Medievalhtybuff Ca c'est l'histoire pour les nuls...
Les causes de la Révolution sont évidemment bien plus profondes. Allez, quelques mots-clé pour vous aider : privilège fiscal, impôt du sang, évolution de la guerre etc.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@BelAves @Medievalhtybuff No way. It wasn't named ''the century of Louis XIV'' for nothing...
At his time, France was the most powerfull state in Europe and maybe in the world.
But one thing is for sure : he inherited part of this power from the master Richelieu.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

Il avait juste oublié de préciser de qui était la "capitulation sans conditions" 😏

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@CorbeauDlicieux Petit correctif : Jeanne ne menait pas les armées à Patay. C'est même la seule bataille où elle n'a pas eu un rôle décisif.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@BreizhLondon @CorbeauDlicieux Si, elle était présente mais à l'arrière-garde.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

Ca se confirme : une énorme gifle pour Washington.
Les Iraniens seraient bien avisés d'accepter le mémorandum et de jouer pleinement le jeu, même si beaucoup de monde va vouloir le torpiller d'ici 60 jours...

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US has released the full text of its 14-point "Memorandum of Understanding" with Iran.

Key terms include:

1. The US, Iran, and their allies agree to immediately and permanently end military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon

2. The US and Iran agree to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfere in each other's internal affairs

3. The US and Iran commit to negotiating and reaching a final deal within 60 days, unless mutually extended

4. The US will begin removing its naval blockade immediately and fully end the blockade within 30 days

5. Iran will use its best efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days with no charge

6. The US and regional partners will develop a mutually agreed plan of at least $300 billion for Iran's reconstruction and economic development

7. The US will work toward terminating all types of sanctions against Iran, including UN, IAEA, primary, and secondary sanctions

8. Iran reaffirms that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons and agrees to address its enriched material stockpile under IAEA supervision

9. Until a final deal is reached, Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, while the US will impose no new sanctions and deploy no additional forces

10. The US Treasury will issue waivers for Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, derivatives, and associated banking, insurance, and transportation services

11. The US will make frozen or restricted Iranian funds and assets fully available for use

12. The US and Iran will establish an executive mechanism to monitor implementation of the MOU and future compliance with the final deal

13. After signing the MOU and implementing key ceasefire, blockade, shipping, oil waiver, and asset-release provisions, the US and Iran will begin final deal negotiations

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution

The memorandum will trigger a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

⚠️

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨Qatar just told its LNG buyers what the restart looks like.

50% capacity within 1 month of Hormuz reopening.

80% within 2 months.

That's the good news.
Markets will rally on this.
Headlines will say "LNG crisis ending."

Here's what those headlines will miss:

80% is not 100%.

And it never will be ...not for years.

Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan damaged 2 full liquefaction trains.

17% of Qatar's total LNG capacity.

That's 12.8 million tonnes per year gone for 3 to 5 years minimum.

Before the war, Qatar supplied roughly one fifth of all global LNG trade.

Europe and Asia were heavily dependent on those cargoes.

When Ras Laffan went dark, European gas prices jumped 40-50% in weeks.
Asian buyers scrambled.

Now Qatar comes back but permanently smaller.

The math is simple:
→ Global LNG demand is unchanged
→ Qatar's supply is structurally reduced by 17% for years
→ The gap has to come from somewhere else

Qatar restart is genuinely good news for the short term price spike.

But the medium term LNG market just got permanently tighter.

Gas prices have a new floor.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

A prendre avec des pincettes, comme toujours tant que rien n'est officiel.
Mais si c'est vrai, c'est une victoire XXL pour l'Iran.

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya claim they have the points of US-Iran memorandum of understanding:

— Immediate, permanent end to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon.

— US immediately lifts naval blockade on Iran, no further "interference".

— US withdraws all forces from the region within a month of a final deal.

— Iran lifts the Hormuz blockage within a month.

— US and "regional partners" commit to an Iran reconstruction plan, funded with at least $300 billion.

— If the final deal is implemented, US removes all current sanctions, including UN/IAEA resolutions.

— Iran commits to never build nuclear weapons; enriched uranium issue to be resolved in the final deal; until then, US allows status quo on Iran's nuclear program.

— US approves Iranian crude oil exports (including banking, insurance, shipping) and unfreezes all frozen Iranian funds.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@FrankelWatch13 You said it : ''over a mile''.
Which is the second league of European horse racing.
Since Ascot hosts 2400m great races, there were more impressive performances there.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@TheatrumBelli Ben non. Patay est la seule bataille où Jeanne ne participe pas vraiment, étant à l'arrière-garde.
Pour les autres batailles, oui. Notamment Jargeau où elle était en première ligne, prenant même une pierre sur la tête qui la fit tomber de l'échelle.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@TodayinHistory Corrected : the ''greatest US horse race in history''.
🥱

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@CeJour_Histoire 🥱
La cause majeure de la Révolution est bien plus profonde que cet événementiel sensationnaliste.
-> Privilège de la noblesse qui, au XVIIIe siècle, cesse de payer l'impôt du sang mais ne paye toujours pas l'impôt fiscal. Voilà la cause principale.

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@ivanfamil Otra teoría es que es el mismo carcelero Saint-Mars que puso todo esto es escena para pretender.
Nunca lo vamos a saber...

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@Medievalhtybuff Joan igniting the French army : in just 6 weeks, the English are crushed in Orléans, Jargeau, Beaugency, Meung and Patay.
They had the momentum and completely lost it in the blink of an eye...

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@ReedFawell111 @EverestToday And the only 8000-meters climbed as soon as the first attempt.
Everest, K2, Dhaulagiri or Nanga Parbat were all attempted many times before their first ascent, they were known, surveyed, written about...

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@HeraklesCithare "aurait", "serait"... Si ma tante en avait, elle serait mon oncle 😉
Quant à la complexité, oui, tout est complexe dans la vie. Mais il y a des choses qui le sont plus que d'autres. J'ai expliqué en quoi, on commence à tourner en rond.
Bien à vous

[Observatus Geopoliticus @ObservatusGeopo]

@HeraklesCithare Pas facile, non.
Mais plus facile que de construire un empire en agrégeant des parties très différentes, disparates, sous une même direction.
Il y a les bâtisseurs d'empire (Cyrus, Gengis, Napoléon) et les récupérateurs d'empire (Alexandre). C'est simplement factuel.