Explore the intersection of global politics, finance, and geopolitics with sharp analysis and timely insights. From economic trends to political power shifts.
@altcap you were great on All-in the other day. Inspiring. Respect the essentialism framework. I’m a Risk Manager and love to get the chance to work with you. I am wondering if this is something you'll consider?
HOW I’D PLAY IT:
Conservative:
Own diversified miners.
Aggressive:
Copper miners + long-dated call options.
Speculative:
Smaller copper names with leverage to rising prices.
If this thesis is right, sulfur may become the tiny market that moves much bigger ones.
Watch the inputs. That’s where alpha hides.
The Next Big Set-Up: Sulfur & Second-Order Effects.
1/5 SUMMARY: One of the most overlooked consequences of the Iran conflict may not be oil… it may be sulfur.
Sulfur is a critical input for sulfuric acid, which is essential for:
• Copper production #copper
• Nickel processing #nickle
• Fertilizers
• Chemicals / pharma
If flows tighten through the Middle East, this could create a second-order commodity shock the market isn’t pricing yet.
WHY IT MATTERS:
The Middle East has been a major global sulfur export hub. If conflict disrupts logistics or the Strait of Hormuz, sulfur supply chains can tighten fast.
That matters because sulfuric acid is used across mining + agriculture.
Sometimes the biggest trades come from the inputs nobody watches. Trade Ideas below.
Thanks to @balajis@chamath@ChrisCamillo@PeterDiamandis@BillAckman for providing the foundation for this tread.
5/5 - TRADE IDEA #4: ASYMMETRIC SETUP
Most people trade geopolitical headlines via:
• Oil
• Gold
• Defense stocks
But the smarter trade can be second-order effects:
• Copper squeeze
• Fertilizer inflation
• Input shortages
• Mid-cap miners
That’s where mispricing often lives.
@nntaleb , while I enjoyed your response (I feel like we are similar on many levels), I believe you are one of the rare few that could educate their audience and them. If I could quote Spiderman, 'with great power, comes great responsibility'. For fans of your work and thought, please reconsider.
@Westerbergil@wordswithcherbs@DavidDeutschOxf@allenanalysis@grok It would only make sense, if in fact, I was a bot! Instead, and sadly so now, I am a man and a fan of David's work. To get blocked after asking him his thoughts about what officials are said about not being able to confirm the situation is sad.
AI may transform software.
But Power-to-X could transform the physical economy.
Energy → Hydrogen → Fuels.
A multi-trillion dollar industrial shift.
Which companies in this space are you watching?
🚨Most investors think the next trillion-dollar industry is AI.
They might be wrong.
The next global megatrend may be Power-to-X.
Electricity → Hydrogen → Fuels → Chemicals → Global energy markets.
Here are the companies positioned across the stack 🧵
Shoutout to @balajis and @PeterDiamandis as inspiration for this thread, and their contribution to the field. #Moonshot, #Energy #Investing #PowerX
⚡ The wildcard
If electricity becomes extremely cheap…
Everything accelerates.
One frontier company working on next-gen power:
• OpenStar Technologies
If power becomes abundant, Power-to-X becomes economically dominant. @energybants, @balajis@PeterDiamandis@AswathDamodaran@peterthiel@bgurley