Olivia
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OneAwayMan
@One_Away_Man
Joined December 2018
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356 Posts
https://t.co/LqopXClNdT
Odds are high that the gold price is heading for a fall. Intraday today, the market cap of gold as a percent of the US money supply (M2) hit an all-time high: higher than its peak in 1980 when inflation and interest rates soared to the mid-teens and, even more shocking...
I've been thinking more about Gold and Bitcoin and I think it boils down to this:
Central banks will accumulate Gold.
Private capital will accumulate Bitcoin.
Gold and Bitcoin represent two very different worlds.
Gold is the reserve asset of nation states which centralises power, requires custodial trust, borders, armies and institutions.
This is why it is getting the institutional bid as we are in the midst of a sovereign debt crisis.
In contrast...
Bitcoin is the reserve asset of sovereign individuals and private corporations. It decentralises power and is easier to self-custody.
Digital and Internet-based enterprises are some of the most valuable in the world. Bitcoin is digital capital and is globally liquid.
Gold is centralised capital. Bitcoin is mobile and decentralised capital.
As corporations become more global, more digital, and more balance-sheet-driven, their reserve asset naturally shifts toward the one that matches their operating reality.
That's why the private bid gravitates toward Bitcoin.
So, Gold has been outperforming recently because governments are fleeing to their global reserve asset.
But that outperformance won't last forever.
Over time, private capital will dominate and its global reserve asset of choice will be Bitcoin.
To conclude...
The largest accumulators of Gold will continue to be Central Banks.
The largest accumulators of Bitcoin will be private companies like Strategy.
https://t.co/FPsEWPaNeU
Today I turn 55.
I’m the fittest, sharpest, and happiest I’ve ever been.
If I’m an outlier, it’s not because I’m built different or discovered a secret formula. The truth is far less glamorous:
It’s a million tiny choices, compounded over decades.
Here are 55 of them:
1. Walk 15+ miles a week, even if you do other exercise. Humans are uniquely made to move slowly over long distances—it’s critical to longevity.
2. Develop a writing practice. It’s the single best way to sharpen your mind. And remember, you don’t have to be a good writer to write. Start with 10 minutes a day.
3. Swap out your toothpaste, deodorant, lotions, soap, shampoo, and other personal care products for natural versions. Here’s a rule of thumb: Don’t put anything on your skin that you couldn’t safely eat.
4. If you have a positive thought about someone, don’t keep it to yourself—share it immediately. Encouragement defies the laws of physics: When you give energy, you also receive it.
5. Wear shoes with a wide forefoot (I like Topo Athletic) and wear toe spreaders around the house (search “yoga toes” on Amazon). Spine health begins with the feet.
6. Get sunlight regularly. Moderate sun exposure (without sunscreen) is hugely important for overall health.
7. Do a 3-minute deep (“ass to grass”) squat every morning. Deep squats are often called the anti-aging exercise. It’s been said that, “It’s not that you can’t do deep squats because you’re old, it’s that you’re old because you can’t do deep squats.”
8. Explore minimalism (it’s not what you think it is).
9. Set boundaries on toxic relationships. We tend to cling to relationships past their expiration date, and it takes a bigger toll on our health than we recognize.
10. Eat real food. Not too much. Don’t eat garbage. Binge occasionally. Fast occasionally. That’s the diet.
11. Learn about FIRE. It’s a great framework for financial success.
12. Don’t take antibiotics except in emergency situations. They’re massively over-prescribed and aren’t needed in most cases. Antibiotics have done untold damage to our guts, which is where health begins. Great natural alternatives are out there.
13. Get 8 hours of quality sleep each night. To optimize sleep:
—Don’t eat after 6pm
—Get blackout shades and cover LEDs with black tape
—No screens 2 hours before bed
—Try ashwagandha (an herb) to calm the nervous system
14. Stop drinking, even in moderation. People find all sorts of ways to justify drinking, but there’s no escaping the simple fact that alcohol is a toxin and it limits your potential.
15. Travel as much as possible. Nothing expands the mind like seeing the world. And travel doesn’t have to be expensive—the best experiences happen outside of fancy resorts, when you live like a local.
16. Let go of resentment. When you forgive someone, you release the prisoner, and the prisoner isn’t them… it’s you.
17. Show up on time, every time. Poor time management limits success more than most people realize. If you struggle with punctuality, stop everything else and fix that first.
18. Spend lots of time in nature and touch the earth. Humans evolved over 300k years to live in harmony with nature, and only recently have we retreated indoors. If you don’t spend time outside, you’re fighting biology (hint: You won’t win.)
19. Stop doing dumb things. As Leo Tolstoy said, “People try to do all sorts of clever and difficult things to improve life instead of doing the simplest, easiest thing—refusing to participate in activities that make life bad.”
20. Find your happy place and (eventually) move there. Most people live where they live because... that's where they live. We are products of our environment—choose yours carefully.
21. Find a hobby and pursue mastery. You can’t have a happy life without a passionate pursuit that isn’t your vocation. Your work—even if you enjoy it—isn’t enough.
22. Avoid mainstream medicine except as a last resort. The results are in—our healthcare (or more appropriately, sick care) system is badly broken and only makes people sicker.
23. Have a mindset of abundance. There is no advantage to being a pessimist—even if you’re right, it’s a miserable way to live. In a very real way… whatever you believe, you’re right!
24. Do hard things. Choose courage over comfort. Everything you want is on the other side of fear and hard work. As Jerzy Gregorik said, “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”
25. Ignore haters. Hurt people hurt people. Negative/toxic people live in a prison of their own design. Don’t join them!
26. Say no. Protect your time and energy like it’s your most precious asset… because it is.
27. Become a water snob. As an alien said on Star Trek, humans are “ugly bags of mostly water.” You are what you drink—literally! We have Mountain Valley Spring water delivered in glass 5-gallon jugs and also have whole-house water filter (Aquasana Rhino).
28. Stop drinking sodas and sugary energy drinks. After a few weeks you won’t miss them, and a few months later they’ll seem disgusting. Refined sugar causes inflammation, which is the root of most disease.
29. If you’re over 35, find a good functional/longevity medicine doctor and start tracking your hormones. Modern life is hell on the endocrine system and restoring healthy hormone levels can change your life. As we get older, we either accept a slow decline in performance or we do something about it—choose the latter!
30. Develop a morning routine and follow it faithfully. Win the morning, win the day!
31. Invest in experiences, not things. People frequently regret buying things, but rarely regret investing in great experiences (especially when shared with loved ones). Remember, there’s nothing you can buy in a mall that you’ll remember in ten years.
32. Explore spirituality. It’s arrogant and small-minded to believe there’s nothing going on in our universe that is beyond our comprehension. We know less about our universe than an ant meandering on a sidewalk understands about this planet.
33. Have a strong bias toward action—doing rather than talking. If you ask a bunch of old people about their regrets, they’ll talk about the things they *didn't* do—the shots they didn’t take—more than the things they did do (even if it went wrong). As Wayne Gretzky famously said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Most people don’t take enough shots.
34. Stay lean. Men in particular are obsessed with muscle mass these days, but bulk doesn’t age well. The goal is to be strong but lean. The fittest guys in their 50s and beyond aren’t meatheads, they’re lean guys who are serious about a sport.
35. Curate your inner circle carefully. Surround yourself with people you admire and who challenge you to grow. Remember, we’re the average of our 5 closest relationships.
36. Be the fittest version of yourself. Your body is your only vessel for experiencing life—so treat it as such. Fitness isn’t working out a few times a week, it’s a lifestyle. The older you get, the more time you need to devote to your health.
37. Take the time to appreciate art and beauty in all its forms.
38. Think globally, but act locally. Too many people put their energy into far-away problems they don’t understand and can’t impact, while ignoring problems right under their nose. Want to change the world? Start at home.
39. Try psychedelics. It’s one of those things everyone should do at least once, and it might be the breakthrough you’ve been looking for.
40. Limit bad habits, including unhealthy thought patterns. We all have them—practice avoidance and find substitutes. Get professional help if needed.
41. Be a lifelong learner. Your brain is just like a muscle—if you don’t feed and flex it regularly, it will atrophy.
42. Find your purpose. People with a strong sense of purpose are happier and live longer. Lack of purpose sucks energy and magnifies depression.
43. Only take advice from people who embody the traits you want to have. Talk is cheap—emulate those who have DONE it.
44. The goal is not to retire and do nothing, it’s to build a great day-to-day life that you don’t need to escape. A life of leisure is a slow death. Happiness isn’t possible without a little struggle, uncertainty, and skin in the game.
45. Have fun! Do frivolous and silly things that make you smile. As George Bernard Shaw famously said, “We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.”
46. Whatever you want to do or achieve in life, start NOW. Don’t fall victim to “someday thinking” because someday never comes.
47. Accumulate assets—things that grow in value over time. It’s the #1 habit of rich people, and it can be done in tiny chunks. Instead of spending $100 on an impulse purchase that has no lasting value, put that money into an index fund or Bitcoin. It becomes addictive (in a good way).
48. Don’t ignore the big 3 canaries in the coal mine for health:
—Low libido (and ED)
—Frequent sinus & respiratory issues
—Depression
These usually aren’t medical conditions in themselves, they’re symptoms of an underlying problem. Find a good doc (outside of the mainstream) and figure out the root cause.
49. Have a clear vision for your future. How can you decide which direction to go if you haven’t clearly defined the destination? It sounds obvious, but 95% of people haven’t defined their “Ideal End State” in detail and in writing. (Check out my thread on this topic.)
50. Make your own decisions. We live in an era where most of what society tells us is wrong. Don’t be afraid to break from societal norms—if people say you’re crazy, it’s a sign that you’re doing something right.
51. Get hardcore about mobility exercise. As you age, it’s usually the knees, hips, and lower back that limit physical performance. 30 min a couple times a week can spare you a lifetime of pain. YouTube is a great resource.
52. Go all in on family. Get married, stay married, have kids. Burn the boats. In the end, family is all that matters.
53. Be ruthless with your time. Money comes and goes. Time only goes. Audit your calendar ruthlessly—cut the trivial, double down on the meaningful, and spend your hours like your life depends on it. (Because it does.)
54. Have a strong bias toward action. Be curious, try things, meet people—it’s how you increase your surface area for serendipity, the most powerful unseen force in our lives.
55. Reinvent yourself every decade. Over time, we slowly drift off course from our priorities, values, and true identity. Take stock and don’t be afraid to hit the reset button. Bold, calculated moves made for the right reasons almost always pay off—usually even more than you can imagine.
🎁 P.S. If you enjoyed this post, would you give me a birthday gift? Repost or comment with the item number(s) you liked best?
JP Morgan vs Strategy
A debate erupted with two opposing narratives about Strategy $MSTR
One group claims MSTR is about to go bankrupt
The other claims MSTR is taking on JP Morgan & threatening the financial order
Both of these narratives miss the structural reality of how the Financial-Industrial Complex (FIC) works
Coming from someone who worked in investment banking & understands how these systems are designed from the inside, neither of these interpretations reflect what is likely to occur
People assume the world’s largest corporations like Apple, NVIDIA & Microsoft are corporate giants that dictate global outcomes. But strategically, they are not sovereign, they are operators inside the FIC, which controls them through proxy voting blocs, credit windows, index structures, underwriting monopolies, export controls, regulatory chokepoints & political capital allocation
Corporations control operational decisions (products, engineering, marketing), but they do not control strategic direction (capital flows, refinancing, geopolitical alignment)
At the strategic level, FIC sets the boundaries
This is the lens through which MSTR must be understood
None of this is personal to Michael Saylor
This is what happens when a finite-game corporate entity depends on the FIC’s capital markets while holding an infinite-game monetary asset
In sovereign finance, creditor institutions vassalize nations by pairing infinite sovereign horizons with finite recurring liabilities
Nations rarely default; instead, their debt is rolled over forever, creating permanent influence over policy
The power comes not from taking the asset, but from controlling the vehicle
Strategy faces a similar structural tension
Bitcoin represents the infinite game (no maturity date, no counterparty & long-term network resilience)
MSTR is the finite vehicle (quarterly earnings, debt maturities, refinancing schedules, index eligibility & institutional shareholder expectations)
That asymmetry makes MSTR exposed to the FIC weaponry that governs the finite game: short interest, derivatives, index exclusion, collateral rules, liquidity channels & broker-dealer influence
MSTR is not about to collapse, because the FIC does not benefit from its collapse
MSTR is not taking on the system, because structurally it cannot
The FIC benefits most when MSTR stays alive, not because they support Bitcoin, but because MSTR serves as a highly effective tool for applying short-term finite-game pressure on infinite-game Bitcoin
Bitcoin itself cannot be disciplined, but the corporate wrapper holding 649,870 BTC can
It’s a leveraged proxy, a potential forced seller under certain conditions, & a vehicle for sentiment manipulation
These features make MSTR more useful alive than dead
Because its obligations exceed its cash flow, it remains perpetually dependent on FIC’s financing windows, a textbook form of structural vassalization
Structurally, it is far more likely to function as a tool for Wall Street than as an opponent to it
The FIC does not need to destroy MSTR. It needs MSTR to continue existing as an instrument through which the finite-game FIC can influence short-term Bitcoin dynamics
You cannot beat Wall Street in the short-term finite game (nobody can), but you can l win the long-term infinite game
Bitcoin cannot be manipulated over multi-year horizons
Fiat markets can distort, pressure, or amplify short-term noise, but cannot change Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory
On long time horizons, Bitcoin’s incentives overpower every short-term mechanism deployed against it
The real battle is not “Strategy vs JPMorgan”
The real battle is derivative, money, stock, crypto & bond printers v Bitcoin in self-custody
We do not beat FIC by trading against it
We beat it by exiting it entirely
We beat it through long-term holding & self-custody
The FIC manipulates finite games; Bitcoin rewards infinite-game players
Bitcoin is the infinite game
Self-custody is how we win it
Every single Crypto holder needs to see this.
The current situation and collective perspective is totally off, and is not sitting right with me.
None of this apocalypse sentiment is making sense.
And this chart proves beyond doubt that anyone who believes the market is over, has got it wrong.
It doesn't matter that we are getting a 30% dip and it hurts... we have had 30% dips every bull market.
Yes, prices are nuking and it sucks. The LTF has been tough to call and I've got that wrong myself, i hold my hands up and have been all day.
But that does not change the overall HTF macro/market situation, and this chart confirms that clear as day.
This is not my opinion, these are the most important BTC/ALT charts, that simply show where we are now, to the same position we were within the last cycle.
Before you start to berate me for being a bull and tell me im wrong... look at the chart and take it in.
Firstly, look at the position of BTC.D and TOTAL3/BTC now, and then look at the market period in which they were in the same position in 2021. I have circled and narrated it all.
Now, look at where BTC was at that exact time.
This is not a coincidence, this is the overall market dynamic here in front of your eyes.
Back then, TOTAL3/BTC had bottomed, tested the HTF break of trend, and then pushed back above the 50SMA before massive expansion into the blow off top. It has just finished the same exact move and is starting to expand.
BTC.D had broke the 4 year trend, completed a bearish retest, and then nuked all the way to 39%. It has just completed the exact same pattern, and has started to drop again.
When all of this was happening, BTC had just retraced 30%+, and then went on to make new highs.
We are in the EXACT same position right now, BTC is retracing 30%, TOTAL3/BTC has started pushing and BTC.D has started dropping.
As i keep saying, we are in the polar opposite situation to end of cycle 2021.
Macro wise, and overall market chart wise.
I've shown you the macro, now i have shown you the charts.
The macro and the charts show we still have the main area of market wide expansion to go.
This is not my opinion, these are just the macro facts and the charts.
Regardless of this harsh nuke, it is not over.
https://t.co/gCWSQ3bk8M
It’s hard to convey intent and timeframe posting on X.
But from a high-level, beyond random chart posts, I like to think about everything through three main lenses:
1. The Earn - Income
Most traders believe they can trade their way to wealth.
I disagree. Income is the biggest driver, especially early on.
Maximize earnings from your profession.
Get promoted, change roles, start a side hustle or small business.
Build a steady stream before you chase multipliers.
2. The Multiply - Growth
Taking that steady stream of income and put it to work.
This is where you grow, through investing, trading, and some larger calculated risk.
Earned money becomes working money.
Learning through experience, this is the active money you're looking to grow. This is where you want to be broad in application. "There is a bull market somewhere" idea. Angle investing, trading/investing, business partnerships.
3. The Protect & Compound - Foundational
Periodically move or rebalance wealth from “Growth” into “Foundational.” Different timeframe, different mindset. You're not market timing, you're building the layer.
This is your true FU capital.
The layer you protect and let quietly compound, providing ultimate security.
Bitcoin. Gold. Blue-chips. Income assets. Real Estate.
Stable, reliable, generational wealth.
Every time capital flows into this layer, you're locking in a new level of wealth and security.
The goal is to flow wealth down into the Foundational. Think of it as a funnel, you want high flow in to have a better chance to multiply it and have enough to flow the way down.
For example, I could be selling a bunch of gold stocks or Bitcoin after a great 4yr Cycle run, but it will also mean stacking and adding to some of those same assets in the Foundational layer. This layer never sells (only rebalances).
Have a great win on a speculative coin, pay your foundational layer with a portion of the winnings, always.
17 years after the white paper, the Bitcoin network is still operational and more resilient than ever. Bitcoin never shuts down.
@SenateDems could learn something from that.
AI won’t replace humans.
It’s replacing human bias.
When that happens, capital will stop flowing through emotions… and start flowing through logic.
That’s where Bitcoin comes in.
AI will need a settlement layer it can trust.. not to feel safe, but to verify safety.
It can’t 'believe' a central bank or a CEO. It can only compute truth.
And Bitcoin is the only monetary protocol that’s machine-verifiable, censorship-proof, and programmable at the base layer.
Think about it…
AI is about autonomous agents.
Bitcoin is about autonomous money.
Together, they form a feedback loop where intelligence meets incorruptible value.
The next era isn’t humans trading with humans.
It’s algorithms transacting with algorithms.. and they’ll choose the rail that doesn’t lie.
That’s not speculation… that’s inevitability.
Drum roll 🥁
The world’s first AI-native currency already exists.
It’s Bitcoin.
#BitcoinOG #CryptoMarket #AIxCrypto
They say watch what the Fed says… I say watch what the Fed does.
Everyone’s fixated on the number '29.4 B' but the timing is the tell. (In case you may not know, 29.4B is the liquidity Fed quietly injected into the banking system last week.)
It came right after Powell said no rate cuts coming.. a moment that should’ve drained liquidity, not added it.
Instead, the Fed opened repo facilities and topped up reserves.
That’s the contradiction no one’s talking about.
Public stance: "We’re still tight, data-driven.."
Private actions: "We’re already prepping the system for easing."
That’s stealth pivot behaviour- the Fed acts tough in public to look serious about inflation, but behind the scenes it’s already easing pressure on the system.
Each time they do that, a little extra liquidity slips into markets… and Bitcoin is always the first to sense it.
#BitcoinOG #CryptoMarket
Balancer just got hit again… around 110 million drained across Ethereum, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Sonic.
Hackers found a weakness in Balancer’s boosted Ether pools and pulled out WETH, osETH, and wstETH. This is now their third major breach since 2020.. that’s not bad luck, that’s broken security culture.
When the same protocol keeps getting hit, it’s not DeFi innovation, it’s negligence. Expect short-term shock across DeFi pools and higher risk premiums.
Takeaway: not your keys, not your yield. Real safety in DeFi starts with transparency and code that’s been tested by time, not just hype.
#BitcoinOG #CryptoMarket
https://t.co/m9ojr5r0wh
This is why a price oracle ** is ** a risk oracle.
Secondary market price of @ethena's USDe temporarily hit 0.65 on secondary markets like @binance due to the market sell-off, following Trump's China tariff news.
All of this is while USDE was overcollateralized, continuing to function with no downtime, and processed mints and burns.
The @chaoslabs price methodology saved 4.5 billion worth of positions on @aave, and saving users ~180m in liquidation penalties, and cascades thereafter.
This pricing methodology was developed following a lively debate within the DAO. We advocated for it due to the existence of the Ethena Proof of Reserve oracle and our deep analysis of the protocol.
https://t.co/2K1TGi3EcO
Will do a full summary of market happenings and oracle performance soon, but TLDR @aave and user funds are safe!
Rumour on the street:
Ethena's delta neutral strategies blew up and now they're desperately raising capital to back $USDe.
This is giving Terra Luna vibes.
You lose nothing by swapping out now, if it's wrong, you can always swap back in.
Don't take the risk.
so can anybody explain what happened or are we still guessing that some fund/mm blew up?
Basically, most protocols that have an airdrop these days have the same farmer sophistication problem:
• Professional farming operations with 10K+ wallets
• AI-powered behavior mimicking
• Cross-protocol farming coordination
So in practice:
• Airdrop creates whale concentration anyway
• Early farmers become your biggest holders
• "Decentralized" launch with centralized outcomes
Not yet sure if this can be addressed at all.
People in crypto will say this is stupid and it probably is but that's missing the point.
The point is: Wall Street is obsessed with stablecoins and they're right that by 2030 we'll have trillions onchain.
One implication people haven't fully grokked yet is how much activity that is going to bring onchain.
Once companies wake up to the fact that you can send dollars (almost) for free, they'll start doing that. A LOT, eventually exclusively.
That also means that stuff like company payrolls (first just international, but eventually the whole payroll) will get run onchain.
That also means once the company's dollars are in stablecoins, it won't make that much sense to generate yields in MMFs on the TradFi L1.
They'll begin experimenting with Aave and Morpho vaults.
So one takeaway is as stablecoins slowly drag an increasing amount of economic activity onchain, it's going to moon TVL on our favorite apps (woo).
But another takeaway is that the entire enterprise software stack that supports modern businesses (treasury management, accounting, payroll and payments) will break.
The initial reason it breaks is because onchain data doesn't map neatly to, say, your accounting software or CRM.
This is a great opportunity, but it'll eventually get solved.
The reason it may break software more permanently though is because onchain data is real time and most software isn't set up accomodate that.
The days of your IBM business intelligence tool aggregating data at the end of the month or quarter is over.
The future is real time data updated every 12 seconds that businesses, combined with AI agents, will increase speed of decision making at orgs by two orders of magnitude.
It will also completely reinvent the SaaS software stack over the course of the next 20 years, which is a generational opportunity for the right business to capitalize on.
So TL;DR - everyone will launch stablecoins, most of them will be dumb and fail, but don't make the mistake of dismissing this as stupidity.
Stablecoins driving onchain activity is THE crypto megatrend of the next 20 years.
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