Open Square Capital

OSC is an asset management firm dedicated to a thematic value-oriented investment approach.

[Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap]

For the month of May, TSA passengers are down on average about 0.2%. Total commercial flights are down about 0.8%. So yes, there is some demand destruction at the leading edge of energy consumption, however slight. Info from Flightradar24 and TSA.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The International Atomic Energy Agency believes Iran’s nuclear risks are now higher than before the Iran War began on February 28th.

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

RBC on investor sentiment: "energy specialists continue to dominate the energy trade flow with generalists still preferring to overweight tech. Some conversations of generalists indicate an appetite to evaluate energy once an Iran resolution occurs and a more defined oil market is established. Energy stocks on average discounting $67WTI and trading at 4.5X EV/EBITDA / 13% FCF yields at strip." Apathy = opportunity.

[Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap]

Four days, three days, two days . . . ago . . . where they lead, one never knows.

He's channeling Dr. Seuss now.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says that reports claiming the US and Iran have stopped speaking are "fake news."

[Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap]

US frustration with Israel's actions here in Lebanon. Could US be trying to distance politically from IS to soften IR's stance? It's only reason you'd leak this publicly & signal IR, but IR has no reason to play ball. You're stuck w/the "crazy" girl you brought to the dance.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

During a call between the two leaders earlier today, President Trump lashed out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon and its chance at damaging peace talks with Iran, at one point calling Netanyahu “crazy” and accused him of ingratitude, two U.S. officials and a third source briefed on the call told Axios.

Summarizing President Trump’s remarks to Netanyahu, a U.S. official said to Axios: “You're fucking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.” While a second source briefed on the call said Trump was “pissed” and at one point yelled at Netanyahu: “What the fuck are you doing?”

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Tehran has rejected Washington's demands to surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles, with no change expected to Iran's nuclear posture. - NYT

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN REJECTS U.S. DEMANDS, SAYS WASHINGTON HAS NO RIGHT TO DICTATE TERMS: MEHR

[هنر جنگ @dolfiniran]

۰۲:۵۹/ ۹ خرداد
ارتش امریکا درصدد آغاز یک عملیات نظامی جدید در تنگه هرمز است. ایران در پاسخ به حملات احتمالی دشمن، پایگاه ها و نقاط استقرار نیروهای ارتش امریکا در کشورهای عربی را هدف قرار خواهد داد و به هدف گرفتن شناورها و هواگردهای امریکایی بسنده نخواهد کرد.

[Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap]

Oil prices lower this week given the news of an MOU . . . or not. Actually producers should be glad the Strait of Hormuz remains closed . . . otherwise oil prices probably in the negative given "the glut." So much oil.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says the US Navy is lifting its "blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz and he is meeting in the Situation Room to make a "final determination" on the Iran deal.

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Neil Chapman, SVP of Exxon this morning at the Sanford Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference perhaps going a little off corporate script:

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran launches ballistic missile and drone attack on Kuwait, with air raid sirens active, per Kuwaiti Army GHQ.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Imminent deal.

Now tankers can’t even pay the toll even if they wanted to.

[Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap]

Everything is awesome . . .

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

BREAKING:

Reports of airstrikes in Bandar Abbas, Iran.

4 loud explosions have been heard in the area.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran rejects Trump's new comments "the Strait is going to be open to everybody, US will watch over it, but nobody's going to control it" saying the Strait remains permanently closed, with Iran retaining "full sovereign control" over it and "preserve its nuclear materials as a guarantee of the other party's compliance" in any future agreement, per a source close to Iran's Ghalibaf.

Trump also threatened to "blow up" Oman if it doesn't "behave," and says he won't lift any sanctions, release Iranian funds, or have a deal without Iran signing the Abraham Accords.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

I am in the camp that I would rather see the Strait of Hormuz reopen just so people can see how the situation (normal flows) won’t be resolved anytime soon.

And if normal flows don’t return, you need inbound tankers, production shut in continues.

[Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) @adamscochran]

I’m told this progress is attributable to:

* JD Vance being sidelined (which led to his discussion of dropping presidential bid)

* Rubio quietly taking over lead

* Rubio switch lead mediator from Pakistan to Qatar due to Pakistan’s “discretion” issues

* Rubio being able to convince Iranian delegates that the Congressional restraints on military action outside the 60-day window are serious, and that the US can only engage defensively

Unlike the talks in Pakistan, we are hearing *a lot* less public claims of progress, but there is apparently substantially more real progress behind the scenes.

Trump’s unpredictability, rhetoric and Netanyahu being a loose cannon are still causing material delays, but it sounds like there is at least a round one deal getting close.

(And that senior Republican leadership have quickly jumped ship from Vance to Rubio in a potential ‘28 bid, after he showed how little statecraft is needed to move something stable forward here)

[Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNC]

MORE details on US strikes vs Iranian targets today:

2 Iranian boats were caught laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, senior US official tells me. The US military eliminated both IRGC vessels and also struck at a SAM (surface to air missile) site in Bandar Abbas that was targeting US warplanes.
“These were defensive strikes.” They do not indicate ceasefire is over, according to two well placed sources.

[Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) @adamscochran]

Last month I posted this story noting:

-Iran is trying to slow walk the Trump admin until the US midterms.

Now Iran is saying:

-When agreement starts its 30 days to open Strait
-Another 30 days to start HEU/nuclear talk
-A 60-day window for those talks

That's 3 months from the date of signing the initial agreement.

They want this to be a midterm election issue, because they know a Dem sweep puts a lid on Trump's ability to negotiate via violence.

People didn't take this story seriously, but the proposals Iran continues to present very clearly validate this strategy.
https://t.co/l72ZIzPX11

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

GALIBAF AND ARAGHCHI'S VISIT TO DOHA MAY BE THE FINAL SPRINT TO RESOLVING THE DISPUTE WITH WASHINGTON, SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS (THE AMOUNT, METHOD OF PAYMENT, AND TIMING OF PAYMENT). IF THE VISIT SUCCEEDS, IT IS LIKELY THAT AN AGREEMENT WILL BE ANNOUNCED WITHIN A MAXIMUM TIMEFRAME OF TOMORROW, AND THIS IS PLAUSIBLE; OTHERWISE, WE MAY RETURN TO SQUARE ONE.