OPSFI

Senior-led financial advisory. Ex-Big-4 team, boutique precision. M&A · Financial Due Diligence · CFOs · Accountants · Funds · AI Implementation · Audit Teams

[OPSFI @OpsFi_Services]

Private equity is sitting on something like 34,000 unsold companies.

That is not a market that needs more teaser decks. It is a market that needs businesses a buyer can underwrite.

Hold periods are stretching. Continuation funds are doing more of the work that a clean exit used to do. LPs want cash, not another mark.

The companies that will actually sell are the ones that survive a real quality of earnings review. Customer concentration, working capital, the control environment. The story in the CIM is not the price.

In this backlog, readiness is the asset.

[OPSFI @OpsFi_Services]

The 2026 deal market is not recovering evenly.

PwC's mid-year outlook has global M&A tracking toward $4 trillion <> the strongest year since 2021. Nearly half of that value now sits in transactions above $5 billion.

Remove the megadeals, and the rest of the market is quieter, and more selective.

Capital is concentrating where buyers can secure scale they cannot build in time: power, compute, grid infrastructure, and the industrials behind them.

Energy combinations are setting the tone. Mid-market processes are taking longer.

That is why diligence has to do more than confirm the model.

AI can compress a data-room review. It cannot tell you whether earnings quality, customer concentration, working capital, and the control environment survive contact with the files, it yet at least.

In a market this concentrated, the expensive mistake is not missing a megadeal. It is underwriting a story the books cannot support.

Quality of earnings still decides the price to a large degree.

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

The AI race is also a power race.

Nvidia is putting $1.5 billion into SB Energy today to lock up to 8 gigawatts of compute in Ohio, on the old Portsmouth site. OpenAI is the tenant. SoftBank is in the stack. 10 GW of new generation, that’s $4.2 billion into the grid.

That is not a software announcement. That is steel, turbines, transmission, and paychecks.

When I was in Texas recently, I saw so many industrial plants going up. Construction sites everywhere. Cranes on the horizon. Same pattern. The counties that can deliver power and execution are going to pull the talent, the tax base, and the next decade of growth.

You don't win this with slides. You win it by building.

We have no choice but to engineer our way through this. Power is the bottleneck. Execution is the MOAT.

We have to compete with China, we should expend our focus on this!

Build the power. The models will follow.

[OPSFI @OpsFi_Services]

@GregTomaselli Clean exits are truly the best for everyone!

[OPSFI @OpsFi_Services]

Diligence is not a formality.

People often underestimate the correlation between a good clean due diligence on them and their company vs their chances of getting their funds.

It is the process of testing whether the narrative in the materials holds when examined against the underlying financial reality.

[OPSFI @OpsFi_Services]

@GregTomaselli @Workout_DAO @iamjerrysam Gaining those steps to maintain the April Challenge, we are rooting for you!

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

Third April Challenge (3/15) completed with
@Workout_DAO this weekend😃

Reached 30 flights of stairs in 48 hours.

As the last week was intense (mountain climb, calorie goals), I took it easier (So I thought) &amp; did weighted stretches afterwards. Mobility is so important!

[OPSFI @OpsFi_Services]

@GregTomaselli @Workout_DAO @iamjerrysam Great initiative happening here with WorkoutDAO, hope you achieve all your goals for April!

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

Second April Challenge (2/15) completed with @Workout_DAO

Reached my 1,000 active calories goal over 48 hours and had to do a bigger portion on on day 2 with over 700 calories - raised intensity!

Shoutout @iamjerrysam - pushed me (1 hour intense HIIT session to reach it 💪)

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@xAI has acquired @X in an all-stock transaction. The combination values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion ($45B less $12B debt).

Since its founding two years ago, xAI has rapidly become one of the leading AI labs in the world, building models and data centers at unprecedented speed and scale.

X is the digital town square where more than 600M active users go to find the real-time source of ground truth and, in the last two years, has been transformed into one of the most efficient companies in the world, positioning it to deliver scalable future growth.

xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent. This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach. The combined company will deliver smarter, more meaningful experiences to billions of people while staying true to our core mission of seeking truth and advancing knowledge. This will allow us to build a platform that doesn’t just reflect the world but actively accelerates human progress.

I would like to recognize the hardcore dedication of everyone at xAI and X that has brought us to this point. This is just the beginning.

Thank you for your continued partnership and support.

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

Real performance is all about incentives!

@LitheumOfficial will unleash on-chain productivity like never before!

Design is an element where most projects miss major opportunities.

Execution is the power play!

Lets go Bigchain!

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

SO WHAT IF IT ALREADY EXISTS???

Build it cheaper, operationally leaner &amp; solve the problem better 🚀

You can charge less &amp; steal market share with a smart GTM!

Just ⛔️ pick competitors with high switching costs!

Don’t worry about their size, harder to change!

User wins🏆

[OPSFI @OpsFi_Services]

@GregTomaselli Finding the best ROI on each building decision is key! Managing runway is the best way to build a strong business, with a kick ass sales campaign. Forget the noise and think critically!

[Michael Nadeau | The DeFi Report @JustDeauIt]

Is anyone safe using DeFi?

A user on @Uniswap v3 was just sandwiched attacked out of $216k while simply trying to swap $221k USDC to USDT.

Mind you, this was a pool that had over $35m of USDC and USDT it.

This is insane.

How did it happen?

An MEV bot front-ran the tx by swapping all the USDC liquidity out.

After the transaction executed, they put back the liquidity.

The attacker tipped a block builder (bobTheBuilder) $200k and profited $8k from this transaction.

-----

A few ways to try to avoid this:

1. Reduce slippage tolerance on transactions

2. Don't use Uniswap. Use cowswap or another aggregator - which can provide better execution + prevent this malicious MEV

3. Use a custom RPC that doesn't expose your transactions publicly

-----

What is Uniswap's responsibility here?

We can't live in a world where a user executes a simple swap of $221k in a liquid stablecoin pool and gets rugged.

----

P.S. data team @the_defi_report is cooking. Going deep on MEV to share the economics of various chains from the ground up.

Might not be pretty.

If you want to stay on top of all the insights we're sharing, you can sign up below 👇

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

It keeps getting better: @rumblevideo buys 188 Bitcoin worth $17.1 million. Here is why 👇

Being a listed company, this is a great move from their part and it brings up the importance of holding Bitcoin in your treasury.

While this is roughly just under 10% of their existing cash stockpile, for a loss making company this is a very smart way to leverage treasury.

If Bitcoin runs, it will bridge their loss to profit divide and buy them time to become organically profitable.

If Bitcoin drops another 50%, it hardly effects their company in the short term and they can hold out while markets improve.

The 3 main benefits are:

⭐️ Maintaining purchasing power with their peers, as others are now putting in 5-10% of their treasury. And guess what, YouTube is not.

⭐️ Gaining a new segment of customers, as Bitcoiners and crypto industry leaders may be tempted to join the Rumble Revolution instead of YouTube, supporting BTC Hodlers!

⭐️ Gain retailer stock market investor attention, and perhaps attract more demand for the stock, with investors knowing there is a Bitcoin backing with future potential returns attached.

Smart move, you have to give the Rumble board and @chrispavlovski credit!!! They are controlling the narrative!

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

You know what it means that all these SEC lawsuits are ending against Crypto companies, like @Ripple right?

It means that instead of holding treasury for legal fees & fines,

The companies that have been fighting the SEC cases like Coinbase and Ripple and the other tier 1 / 2 crypto companies that have been saving / preparing litigation,

NOW CAN FOCUS ON BUILDING PRODUCTS AND INVEST IN THE INDUSTRY WITH THAT MONEY!!!

Its all coming together people, have some faith!

Oh and, now builders can build without thinking they will end up in trouble... Just saying.

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

Had some good discussions representing @LitheumOfficial on this spaces 👇

Take a listen!

https://t.co/93VnFEM9OE

[Nate Holiday @nateholiday]

Everything is data

[Greg Tomaselli @GregTomaselli]

The Stock Market is a mess, crypto is a bloodbath, but why? And how will a strong price recovery happen? ✅👇

It is absolutely clear that the U.S. is in the process of an economic transition (the White House is absolute on this), where they want to become more self sufficient, balance the budget, reduce debt, reduce inflation and increase internal production / productivity to generate long term wealth.

This is contrary to generating temporary wealth by printing money while the world is forced to accept it (with the USD being the reserve currency).

For better or worse, they are changing things...

The fastest way to force (i) U.S. companies to invest locally (especially with their record levels of cash on their balance sheets) that have been offshoring production, and (ii) foreign companies producing offshore that are selling to U.S. customers, is to simply push harsh tariffs and then offer them a soft landing, with easier regulations / laws for them to produce in the U.S. (like lower taxes, fast tracking production licenses, etc).

This will create uncertainty and chaos for risk assets. The theory is it will force capital to flee to U.S. Treasuries and bonds, which reduces the interest rates with much higher demand.

The White House have said they are aiming for a minimum 1.5% rate drop.

Seems they are trying to force the FOMC's hand. The $7 Trillion in debt that the U.S. will refinance in 6 months will be cheaper if the rates drop. Households with property mortgages and car repayments will feel significant relief, bringing inflation down for average Americans.

The long term effects of U.S. production increases will be intensely felt by the average American, with more jobs in play and more money circulating in the local economy.

This is clearly the plan, and I don't think its changing any time soon whether it works or not, whether we like it or not.

What does this mean for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and others? What about the stock market?

So for us all out there in capital markets, buckle up, it is likely going to be a real bumpy ride.

But if you believe in something, don't be fooled by the short term (6-12 months) noise, rather double down in the tough times, and the good times will be so much better! Pick stocks and crypto that provide real value. Use this as an opportunity to sharpen your selection skills.

There is so much coming for crypto, and the strategic reserves are not event the best thing for me (I love it though).

Once the Stablecoin bill is passed in Congress, the real fun begins. Banks, payment platforms, point of sale systems (retail, coffee shops, restaurants, malls, e-commerce, etc) and the public will adopt it like sugar, and real use cases on blockchains will explode!

This will drive usage across the world, like never seen before, especially in regions with currency instability. I have seen this already start in Africa and parts of Asia.

The best part, the demand that reserve backed stablecoins will drive for USD (as each USDC stablecoin is represented by a USD kept in custody, with most of it invested in U.S. treasuries), will bring down interest rates.

If they actually pull this off, this is a win-win flywheel that will push crypto and stock prices to new heights, like never seen before. As the higher the adoption of stablecoins, the lower the interest rates, which push risk asset prices up.

There is always risk, so best we all get better at risk management, my two cents after seeing what is going on.

Stay safe out there!