TheNiche

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[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@Adaamset Just to clarify, the market / orderflow is telling you

a) there is seller absorption so no more breakdown OR
b) this rally is fake, so ehh no breakout today

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@TheTradeFlow @redbadbear I just got a membership but can't seem to find / figure out the discord details. Is that something you can help me with?

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@steven_data @jnissikim @jam_croissant @JR2themax Possible scenarios that you could hope for

1) They don't confirm the deal "as early as Monday" (pre-market) - and you can exit your OTM calls

2) The story is a leak by $SLNO to attract attention from other bidders

3) The actual price is higher than initially reported

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@steven_data @jnissikim @jam_croissant @JR2themax (1) "I just handed you an overnight +20% M&A catalyst on a silver platter, and you are complaining about the spreadsheet math? Take your money and stop whining."

(2) ""Look closer at the math." Don't be fooled by the headline if FCF is $16/share, a $48 buyout is a robbery."

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@steven_data @jnissikim @jam_croissant @JR2themax Not sure if / when @jam_croissant - will have time to comment on the buyout price (low 50s vs his 2.5-3x estimate) - but I asked Gemini what his bubbles GIF meant. Amused at the two interpretations (below).

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@steven_data @jam_croissant @JR2themax @jam_croissant - tagging you here in case our comment on the final buyout price got lost in the sea of comments - genuinely curious / teachable moment here for us on valuation and M&S arbitrage dynamics - wondering if you have a view! Thanks for all you do!

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@jam_croissant @SolenoTx @dawncarterbir - wondering if have you seen the math here, sounds like you could do a lot better than the 47-55 that @neurocrine is offering! Don't fold yet :)

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@RealMrGhoul @semodough @Sanctuary_Bio @seedy19tron @SolenoTx - Seems like the wisdom of the crowd suggests you can do better that Neurocrine's offer!

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@jam_croissant @JR2themax Actually, genuinely curious if you think this will be the final take out valuation - paying pennies for the future implied growth? Fair to assume that an FT article like this implies the cake is baked and the deal is done at 47 and change?

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@StratosphereBot +

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@LewPayne I don't post on twitter at all .. but I really appreciate the value and thoughtfulness you provide. Figured this is the least I can do :)

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@LewPayne What does "ratcheting" mean in this context? (Ratcheting up the pressure for a retest of 4206 / a breakout)

P.S. - Love that charts you post btw! Thanks!

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@alchemy_cap If I've correctly guessed what you are hinting at. Here is the counter view - 1) BTFP is money printing (so bid on equities) 2) On shoring is real - specially for semi's 3) NVDA is the picks and shovels for the AI chatbot wars we are seeing play out.

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@ThetaWarriorPro Or well columns at the end to be specific

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@ThetaWarriorPro @ThetaWarriorPro are the rows blank because these are still open or is MSFT the only one open?

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@MarkNewtonCMT Yeah no worries now Mark, the day is long over. I'll wait for the notes (and hopefully a video?). I was keen to get an intra day flash / update that FS sometimes has done since the moves today were pretty sharp and blew past some of the levels talked about.

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@MarkNewtonCMT Hi @MarkNewtonCMT I am an FS member, wondering if the levels (lows for SPX and QQQ to mark capitulation) that you called out yesterday in your (great) daily report are still in play after this intraday rally today on 21 Dec?

[TheNiche @OptionSpear]

@TradingAloha What do you attribute the success to? Was it detecting large flow early or having an understanding of where BTC was going (miners moving to the US, hitting technical resistance) or something else (maybe a combo)?