Bear

@TFLabofficial @TheTradeFlow

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

If you're trading options into this Friday's expiration on 6/12, you need to understand this week's market mechanics given the $SPCX IPO…

And it's bigger and more nuanced than most people realize.

SpaceX is going public Friday with $75 billion raised on a $1.77 trillion valuation.

It’s BY FAR the largest IPO in history.

And the demand? $150 billion, double what's available.

That means $75 billion worth of institutions, such as sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, large asset managers, didn't get the shares they wanted at the IPO price.

You better bet they’ll show up Friday and buy on the open market.

And to do that, they have to sell something else first.

That's where it gets interesting for the rest of the market this week.

The smarter money isn't waiting until Friday to raise that cash.

They've been quietly selling large-cap liquid positions, such as big tech to pre-position. That's part of what you've been seeing in the market this past week. It's not random selling.

Now add the concentration problem on the other side (the sell side).

Funds that already held SpaceX privately are sitting on enormous gains.

Fidelity Contrafund ($FCNTX) is at 5.1%, right at the legal limit for diversified funds. If SPCX pops at the open, they become mandated sellers by law.

Baron Partners Fund ($BPTRX) has 33% of their entire fund in SpaceX, if SPCX opens at the current valuation, that will rise to over 41%. They're not forced to sell by a rule, but at that concentration they'll be trimming.

So you have massive buy pressure from unallocated institutions colliding with forced and motivated selling from funds that are suddenly overweight.

And on top of all of this, gamma has dropped off significantly since last week (see chart).

Without the stabilizing force of large positive gamma, moves in both directions accelerate.

And with a wildly uncertain new stock dominating the day's volume, you won't see new gamma get built in to replace it.

Volatile moves in individual names, accelerated by the gamma cliff, fueled by billions rotating in and out of positions in real time.

This is not a normal Friday. Prepare accordingly.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

If you can’t watch the screen all day, you need a different way to trade.

We see this problem all the time in the group…

- You take short-dated positions and cannot manage them effectively because you’re busy throughout the day.

- You take too many positions and it makes it impossible to keep track of them… what positions to trim, which ones to cut, etc.

- You feel FOMO, seeing others catch big weekly trades and sometimes take trades you shouldn’t.

The problem isn’t that you’re busy outside of trading.

The problem is not altering your trading style to fit your lifestyle.

If this is you, take the time to look at your past trades…

Which ones worked best? How many weeks out were the expiries?

What was the optimal position size? Are there certain days of the week you trade better than others?

This is all data you can get quickly by feeding your trading data into AI.

Get on this if you haven’t done so and then begin implementing the lessons learned.

And if you’d like to condense your weekly market research and get 24/7 market updates from a group of expert traders with 30-40 years of experience who still live, eat, and breathe the markets, check out our trading group, Trade Flow Labs.

It’s a private group for busy traders who have at least a few years of trading experience and would like to make better trading decisions without watching the market all day.

Just send us a DM and ask us about our 2 week trial period.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

Yesterday $META was called out in the group as a short given it closed below the largest GEX levels.

@redbadbear provides the data that gives us an edge, even when the market is selling off.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

Notice how as soon as SPX went under 7400 today, the moves accelerated to the downside.

That's negative gamma in action -- it accelerates moves, on both sides.

If you saw this chart you should have noted that as SPX went below 7450, you were getting closer to negative gamma and larger moves.

Beautiful.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

We don't share this gamma data often outside of our group, but it's imperative you know this for the next 2 days...

We are in strong positive gamma territory (6B worth), which means $SPX $SPY will move slowly in both directions as long as price stays between 7450-7750.

So be careful with far OTM options, as they most likely won't materialize without a significant catalyst.

More than likely we see slow moves, so trade accordingly.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

We've been long $USAR and $LAC in the group precisely because they've been backed by trump and everything he's touched has pumped.

You can argue all you want about these companies, but you can't argue that thematics drive sentiment.

When you're in a bull market, trade like such.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

There are two big account killers...

1. Overtrading.

2. Oversizing.

Remember, trades are like trains... there is always another one right around the corner.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

Did you know $lly has 1000 blackwell chips?

This isn't just some pharma company. They are integrating AI at an industrial scale.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

$PURR breaking out with volume and positive $HYPE news is very bullish.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

On hyperliquid, $PURR is up 10% this weekend.

We'll be breaking down soon why $PURR is a better play than $HYPE ETF's.

Turn notifications on.

[MissingLinks @themissinglinks]

Finally after reading so many bad takes about the SpaceX IPO and S&P500 index inclusion. This one is actually great. Must read.

[MissingLinks @themissinglinks]

We added layers of roll ups to all of these SAAS names on Friday. $NOW $ORCL $MSFT. SAAS summer is the pain trade! And the best hedge if your long ai infrastructure.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

We love weekends in the group as it gives us time to go through the institutional research and plan for the week ahead.

(This is how you save yourself a lot of time, since the group collects and condenses the most important items to watch each week ahead).

@redbadbear was breaking down how CTA flow models can help predict where larger moves can occur, as CTA's are systematic funds that buy/sell algorithmically at certain ranges.

So if you see $SPX go down into the 7310 level, the chances of a larger sell off increase as CTA's will begin selling automatically.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

Big move Friday in $ORCL and now the institutional research is showing it is significantly underowned.

This could lead to a large rally, especially given how SAAS has been running recently along with GPT 5.6 being released soon, which our intel says is significantly better.

Also keep in mind $ORCL earnings on the 10th and many earnings so far have been absolute rippers, such as $SNOW and $DELL.

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

When you understand the market, you stop second-guessing your trades.

The challenge is, it’s extremely difficult to understand all of the intricacies of the market.

Which is precisely why you see all of these very intelligent macro guys stuck on the sidelines since April while the market has gone straight up.

Will they eventually be right about all of the damage done by the war in Iran? Sure.

But they have also missed an immense rally in many names.

Honestly, the only way to understand how to trade the market effectively is to learn from others who have been in the game for decades and are consistently profitable.

That’s why traders devour all of the content Stan Druckenmiller puts out… to learn how he views and thinks about the market.

But, you only get the smallest of surface area ideas or insights from his publicly available content and it doesn’t teach you how to interpret news or execute trades in real time.

That’s why we created our trading group, Trade Flow Labs, headed by Bear and Missinglinks, who each have many decades of experience in these markets, managing teams and working with some of the best known institutions in the world.

This isn’t some call service where novices copy trades.

It’s where you go to get a PhD in markets and trading.

No, you probably won’t become hyper-profitable overnight.

But you’ll learn how to be consistently profitable AND develop life-long trading and investing skills.

Skills that you have forever and can pass down to your children (along with a fat 529 account).

We also get that there are a lot of scam groups that sound and are too good to be true.

That’s why we have created a 2-week trial period for the first week in June, so you can feel us out.

Just send us a DM and we’ll hook you up.

[MissingLinks @themissinglinks]

Got $HOOD? 1200% and counting. Nailed this with layers with the great @sp_traderX only at @TFLabofficial

[MissingLinks @themissinglinks]

@TFLabofficial Casey is such a beast and @sp_traderX was just knocking it out the park all week. Team is just insane

[TFL @TFLabofficial]

😮 Insanity.

This group is absolutely cooking right now.

@themissinglinks

[Bear @redbadbear]

@GranderTheGreat , why isn’t your Yeti, blue?

[RiotKeeper2020 @Riot_Trades]

@GranderTheGreat @TFLabofficial

[GranderTheGreat @GranderTheGreat]

Good to be back after sitting in twitter jail.

Funny how ur haters fire up the bots and flag this post… congratulating @TFLabofficial on their one year anniversary. 🤦

@redbadbear @themissinglinks