Mike

[Mike @Option_Seer]

AI 🤔

[Mike @Option_Seer]

When you’re so close yet so far away… bout (4) 750p 6/5 exp yesterday and then sold them at close.. why? Because I’m still new… but I’m learning. Took a 12 dollar loss instead of turning 100 bills into 2400

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years.

The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972:
– 1973 Inflation: -43%
– 1987 Liquidity: -30%
– 2000 Tech: -47%
– 2008 Credit: -55%

Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk.

Right now, all four are present at the same time.

1. INFLATION
A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months.

2. LIQUIDITY
The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026.

3. TECH
Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern.

4. CREDIT
Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time.

Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present.

But here's the part nobody talks about

While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead.

– Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points
– Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows
– HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia
– Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low

The last time this happened?

December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price.

Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%.

What followed:
– Berkshire +29% over the next 24 months
– Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months

The setup today

Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years.

The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this.

Quality stocks aren't out of style.

They're being orphaned.

That's when generational positions are built.

The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time.

History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.

[WOLF @WOLF_Financial]

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP

On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening.

He also compared the current market to two specific years:

"We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about."

On all tech revolutions:
"All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right."

On the mechanism that pops bubbles:
"There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money."

On the wealth gap that comes with it:
"A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't."

On a political solution:
"I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve."

He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@asklivermore SPY 750p 6/5

[JT @TCMLLC]

It was .04 separation so Close OEH indeed. -91% ATR LOD on a 3 bar break.

So now you put the midpoint of today's range on the chart and watch for resistance on a retest, and if we are to continue it should reclaim it quickly in 3 days ideally.

You've also entered territory for the 7wk rule. That will require a close under the 10ma and then the low of the close under the 10ma will become the sell pivot.

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

FOLLOW THE LEADERS NOT THE LAGGARDS:

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@AP_stocks 😂 i miss your live streams, bro

[CyclesFan @CyclesFan]

$SPX has made 5 consecutive new all time highs since May 26. On each one of these days there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The bulls should be concerned about this because SPX is running higher mostly on tech and specifically on semiconductor stocks.

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@fifi_trades I’ve been playing it too 🫡🫡

[Mike @Option_Seer]

AI 🚀🚀🚀 (could be a gamma squeeze situation. SI over 30% and this thing is running)

[Mike @Option_Seer]

No one saw AI coming… I did.

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@YousufTrades I just looked at all 3 of these charts. Thats wild, within 3 days all went down.. I still havent figured out how you do it..

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@AP_stocks I’m a health consultant/ longevity coach for my day job… had to leave the TOC. If I can be of service I would. Here if you want to chat. -mercury _trades

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@JohnLoc18 we going back to 635-640.. before we go down next leg

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@JohnLoc18 nice call

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@LeifSoreide maybe a play on VUZI

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@market_sleuth SPY 575 on the way... 7 days or less...

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@market_sleuth Happy New Year to you, John

[Mike @Option_Seer]

@LeifSoreide Thats Champion team trading, right? Can that be done with the spectator membership or would it only be the interactive?