Options4Food

@Options4Food

Dad, ICT student

Joined February 2021

292 Following

110 Followers

1.3K Posts

Options4Food retweeted

Bitcoin Magazine

@BitcoinMagazine

19 days ago

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 South Carolina Governor signs bill into law that permits businesses to use Bitcoin & crypto for transactions and prohibits the government from transacting in a CBDC 👏

BitcoinMagazine's tweet photo. JUST IN: 🇺🇸 South Carolina Governor signs bill into law that permits businesses to use Bitcoin & crypto for transactions and prohibits the government from transacting in a CBDC 👏 https://t.co/V3KhErZQbq

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Options4Food @Options4Food

23 days ago

@leadlagreport https://t.co/b1HxUbVPA3

THE BITCOIN PHARAOH

@thebtcpharaoh

23 days ago

THE JAPAN TRADE. weekend reading Everyone's seeing the charts on their feed: JGBs hitting record yields. Yen >158. US 10Y >4.5%. But do you understand what it actually means, and why it’s important? I’m going to break it down here, and explain the implications and how it relates to Japan, the US, Bitcoin and #Metaplanet. Because believe it or not, Japan is probably the most important macro story in the world 1/ The data. JGB 10Y at 2.7% — highest since May 1997 (29 years). JGB 30Y at 4.00% — all-time record. JGB 40Y above 4% — first time any JGB maturity has been here in 30+ years. USD/JPY around 158, with the BOJ spending ¥5.48T ($35B) on intervention this month alone. This is not pocket change, and had little to no effect besides a short term bounce. 2/ But this isn't 1997. Look at the JGB 10Y chart (posted below). The yield is back where it last was in May 1997 — 2.70%. The country however, is not. In 1997, Japan's debt-to-GDP was ~100%. Today it's 248%. So it’s the same nominal yield, applied to a debt stack roughly 2.5x larger. Today's reported interest bill (¥13T) is still mild because most outstanding JGBs carry sub-1% coupons issued during the ZIRP/QE era — but every bond that rolls now reprices to today's curve. 3/ Which sets up an impossible trilemma. Three things Japan is trying to do at the same time: (a) keep debt service affordable, (b) prevent the yen from collapsing, (c) let rates normalize to reflect actual inflation. You can only pick two out of three. — Pick (a)+(b): keep BOJ buying bonds to suppress yields, burn FX reserves to defend the yen. This is the path that got Japan to 46% BOJ ownership of JGBs and ¥5.48T of intervention in a single month. Every quarter the exit gets harder. — Pick (b)+(c): let BOJ hike to close the US spread, yen stabilizes. But every 100bps higher reprices a ¥1,300T+ debt stack on rollover. Fiscal crisis looming. — Pick (a)+(c): hike slowly, keep fiscal stimulus, let yen find its level. Yen drifts to 170, 180. Imported inflation crushes consumers. Foreign capital starts selling JGBs. Fiscal crisis through a different door. The trap is circular: every solution produces the problem you tried to avoid. That's why this isn't a riddle you can solve. It’s a can you keep kicking down the road, until the market eventually forces a choice. 4/ Then PM Takaichi said the quiet part out loud. She said "break free of the spell of excessive fiscal austerity." Her plan: ¥21.3T supplementary stimulus, a ¥122.3T FY26 budget (biggest ever, +6.3%), tax cuts and record defense spending. And the bond market is responding. 5/ The fiscal math doesn't work anymore. Interest spending in FY26: ¥13 trillion — about 10.6% of the entire ¥122.3T budget. Total debt service (interest + principal redemption): ¥31.3T, roughly one-quarter of the budget. Japan now spends about ¥1 of every ¥10 of its budget just on interest, before a yen is allocated to defense, healthcare, or anything else. Sensitivity: every 1% rise in yields adds ~¥3–4T to annual interest cost in the near term as JGBs roll (MOF rule of thumb). Over a decade of full repricing across the ¥1,300T+ debt stack, it adds ~¥13T — effectively doubling today's interest bill. The budget already had to bump its assumed bond rate from 2.0% (FY25) to 3.0% (FY26). The 30Y is currently quoting 4.00%. 6/ The BOJ wants to hike. It can't move fast. Policy rate is 0.75% (still negative in real terms). Core CPI forecast for FY26 is 2.5–3.0%. April PPI: +4.9% YoY and accelerating. Three board members already dissented for 1.0%. But every hike makes the fiscal hole deeper. They're trapped between inflation and insolvency. 7/ Which is why the yen keeps falling. US 10Y: 4.57%. JGB 10Y: 2.7%. Spread: ~190bps. As long as that gap exists and the Fed isn't cutting, the yen wants to weaken. Tokyo's ¥5.48T intervention may have bought them a few weeks, but it didn’t fix anything. 8/ Now the global piece — the carry trade. For a decade-plus, the world borrowed yen at ~0% to buy higher-yielding assets globally. Estimated notional: $350–500B+. As JGB yields rise and yen funding gets expensive, that trade unwinds. Japanese capital comes home. Foreign assets get sold. The biggest one: US Treasuries. 9/ That's why US 10Y just crossed 4.5%+. It's not only US inflation. It's the marginal Japanese buyer becoming a marginal seller. Japan holds ~$1.1T in US Treasuries — the largest foreign holder. If even 5% repatriates, that's ~$55B of supply hitting an already-fragile market. 10/ The deeper story is debasement. Japan printed ¥700T+ over the last decade. The BOJ balance sheet is now ~130% of GDP. They finally got the inflation they worked so hard for. The cost: yen debasement, a bond market revolt, and a central bank that owns half its own debt. There is no clean exit. 11/ Bitcoin is the hedge against exactly this. Debt monetization that can't be reversed. Currency as the release valve. Bond markets that have stopped trusting central planners. BTC corrected with bonds this week on the risk-off — but the structural reason it exists just became clearer. 12/ So the real question. Not "who owns BTC." Not "who's Japan-listed." Which balance sheet is actually built for this regime — capital structure designed for a debasing yen, a rising US 10Y, and a global capital pool that's starved for real yield? I think you can guess who that is. 13/ Metaplanet is the bridge architecture. Metaplanet ($MPJPY / $MTPLF / $3350.T) is the only treasury company designed to bridge three pools: a Tokyo-listed parent equity, US institutional appetite (the deepest BTC-proxy demand pool in the world), and Japanese yield-starved capital. Into one ecosystem. It’s a structural setup @gerovich and @DylanLeClair have been quietly putting together, while the market is too focused on the short term price action. 14/ The Japan engine is already running. 40,177 BTC on the balance sheet; the largest holder outside the US and third largest globally -> likely to jump to second by end of Q2. Perpetual preferred shares being built from scratch as a first time innovation with extremely high barriers to entry, albeit exact timeline is uncertain. 15/ The US engine is being built right now. I laid out the full chronology in detail in my last post. The short version: this didn't start last week. Apr 2025: Miami subsidiary established. Sep 2025: US Income Corp (BTC income generation, US jurisdiction). Dec 2025: Sponsored Level 1 ADR live ($MPJPY), Deutsche Bank depositary, MUFG custodian. Mar 2026: strategic-disclosure day — Asset Management + Ventures + JPYC investment, all on the same day. Thirteen months of compounding setup. 16/ The fee-waiver is the tell. Metaplanet opened a 60-day fee-free window for converting $MTPLF → $MPJPY ADRs, running April 13 to June 12, 2026. Translation: management wants the ADR float deep, clean, and institutionally ready before something lands on top of it. 17/ The likely product — and why it fits the macro. The most plausible first product is a USD-denominated perpetual preferred, run on the same 144A playbook Strategy used for $STRC / $STRD / $STRF. And the macro story is exactly what makes the two-pool structure powerful: Japan is yield-starved (a 5–6% coupon clears domestically), the US is yield-rich (BTC-treasury perps already clear at 10–14%). Metaplanet can issue into both worlds at their respective rates, building optionality and taking advantage of the two deepest capital pools in the world as they evolve over the coming years. 18/ No other company has this structural setup. A debasing-currency balance sheet, holding the asset that hedges debasement, raising in the world's deepest dollar capital market — while its home market produces the structural tailwind. 19/ What this means for the US and Bitcoin. For the US: Japan is the leading edge, not the exception. US debt-to-GDP is ~125%, the 10Y is 4.59% — the same arithmetic eventually applies. Higher rates → higher debt service → political pressure on the Fed → yield curve control, dollar debasement, or both. The US is roughly 10–15 years behind Japan on the same curve. Japanese repatriation is one of the reasons that curve is being pulled forward right now. For the dollar: short-term strength as the yen weakens further. But every reserve currency with high debt-to-GDP and aging demographics ends up where Japan is. The dollar's privileged reserve currency status buys time, but we are already seeing this start to unwind. For Bitcoin: BTC is the only macro asset whose supply is fixed regardless of what any central bank decides. When bond markets stop trusting central planners — and the JGB curve is the first to break that trust at scale — Bitcoin's value proposition stops being abstract. Short-term, BTC trades with risk-on/risk-off. It sold with bonds this week. But the structural bid keeps building: corporate treasuries, sovereign accumulation, capital fleeing fiscally-trapped currencies. Each Japan-style episode makes Bitcoin's reason for existing more obvious, not less.

thebtcpharaoh's tweet photo. THE JAPAN TRADE. weekend reading

Everyone's seeing the charts on their feed: JGBs hitting record yields. Yen >158. US 10Y >4.5%.
But do you understand what it actually means, and why it’s important?
I’m going to break it down here, and explain the implications and how it relates to Japan, the US, Bitcoin and #Metaplanet. Because believe it or not, Japan is probably the most important macro story in the world

1/ The data. JGB 10Y at 2.7% — highest since May 1997 (29 years). JGB 30Y at 4.00% — all-time record. JGB 40Y above 4% — first time any JGB maturity has been here in 30+ years. USD/JPY around 158, with the BOJ spending ¥5.48T ($35B) on intervention this month alone. This is not pocket change, and had little to no effect besides a short term bounce.

2/ But this isn't 1997. Look at the JGB 10Y chart (posted below). The yield is back where it last was in May 1997 — 2.70%. The country however, is not. In 1997, Japan's debt-to-GDP was ~100%. Today it's 248%. So it’s the same nominal yield, applied to a debt stack roughly 2.5x larger. Today's reported interest bill (¥13T) is still mild because most outstanding JGBs carry sub-1% coupons issued during the ZIRP/QE era — but every bond that rolls now reprices to today's curve.

3/ Which sets up an impossible trilemma. Three things Japan is trying to do at the same time: (a) keep debt service affordable, (b) prevent the yen from collapsing, (c) let rates normalize to reflect actual inflation. You can only pick two out of three.
— Pick (a)+(b): keep BOJ buying bonds to suppress yields, burn FX reserves to defend the yen. This is the path that got Japan to 46% BOJ ownership of JGBs and ¥5.48T of intervention in a single month. Every quarter the exit gets harder.
— Pick (b)+(c): let BOJ hike to close the US spread, yen stabilizes. But every 100bps higher reprices a ¥1,300T+ debt stack on rollover. Fiscal crisis looming.
— Pick (a)+(c): hike slowly, keep fiscal stimulus, let yen find its level. Yen drifts to 170, 180. Imported inflation crushes consumers. Foreign capital starts selling JGBs. Fiscal crisis through a different door. The trap is circular: every solution produces the problem you tried to avoid. That's why this isn't a riddle you can solve. It’s a can you keep kicking down the road, until the market eventually forces a choice.

4/ Then PM Takaichi said the quiet part out loud. She said "break free of the spell of excessive fiscal austerity." Her plan: ¥21.3T supplementary stimulus, a ¥122.3T FY26 budget (biggest ever, +6.3%), tax cuts and record defense spending. And the bond market is responding.

5/ The fiscal math doesn't work anymore. Interest spending in FY26: ¥13 trillion — about 10.6% of the entire ¥122.3T budget. Total debt service (interest + principal redemption): ¥31.3T, roughly one-quarter of the budget. Japan now spends about ¥1 of every ¥10 of its budget just on interest, before a yen is allocated to defense, healthcare, or anything else.
Sensitivity: every 1% rise in yields adds ~¥3–4T to annual interest cost in the near term as JGBs roll (MOF rule of thumb). Over a decade of full repricing across the ¥1,300T+ debt stack, it adds ~¥13T — effectively doubling today's interest bill.
The budget already had to bump its assumed bond rate from 2.0% (FY25) to 3.0% (FY26). The 30Y is currently quoting 4.00%.

6/ The BOJ wants to hike. It can't move fast. Policy rate is 0.75% (still negative in real terms). Core CPI forecast for FY26 is 2.5–3.0%. April PPI: +4.9% YoY and accelerating. Three board members already dissented for 1.0%. But every hike makes the fiscal hole deeper. They're trapped between inflation and insolvency.

7/ Which is why the yen keeps falling. US 10Y: 4.57%. JGB 10Y: 2.7%. Spread: ~190bps. As long as that gap exists and the Fed isn't cutting, the yen wants to weaken. Tokyo's ¥5.48T intervention may have bought them a few weeks, but it didn’t fix anything.

8/ Now the global piece — the carry trade. For a decade-plus, the world borrowed yen at ~0% to buy higher-yielding assets globally. Estimated notional: $350–500B+. As JGB yields rise and yen funding gets expensive, that trade unwinds. Japanese capital comes home. Foreign assets get sold. The biggest one: US Treasuries.

9/ That's why US 10Y just crossed 4.5%+. It's not only US inflation. It's the marginal Japanese buyer becoming a marginal seller. Japan holds ~$1.1T in US Treasuries — the largest foreign holder. If even 5% repatriates, that's ~$55B of supply hitting an already-fragile market.

10/ The deeper story is debasement. Japan printed ¥700T+ over the last decade. The BOJ balance sheet is now ~130% of GDP. They finally got the inflation they worked so hard for. The cost: yen debasement, a bond market revolt, and a central bank that owns half its own debt. There is no clean exit.

11/ Bitcoin is the hedge against exactly this. Debt monetization that can't be reversed. Currency as the release valve. Bond markets that have stopped trusting central planners. BTC corrected with bonds this week on the risk-off — but the structural reason it exists just became clearer.

12/ So the real question. Not "who owns BTC." Not "who's Japan-listed." Which balance sheet is actually built for this regime — capital structure designed for a debasing yen, a rising US 10Y, and a global capital pool that's starved for real yield? I think you can guess who that is.

13/ Metaplanet is the bridge architecture. Metaplanet ($MPJPY / $MTPLF / $3350.T) is the only treasury company designed to bridge three pools: a Tokyo-listed parent equity, US institutional appetite (the deepest BTC-proxy demand pool in the world), and Japanese yield-starved capital. Into one ecosystem. It’s a structural setup @gerovich and @DylanLeClair have been quietly putting together, while the market is too focused on the short term price action.

14/ The Japan engine is already running. 40,177 BTC on the balance sheet; the largest holder outside the US and third largest globally -> likely to jump to second by end of Q2. Perpetual preferred shares being built from scratch as a first time innovation with extremely high barriers to entry, albeit exact timeline is uncertain.

15/ The US engine is being built right now. I laid out the full chronology in detail in my last post. The short version: this didn't start last week. Apr 2025: Miami subsidiary established. Sep 2025: US Income Corp (BTC income generation, US jurisdiction). Dec 2025: Sponsored Level 1 ADR live ($MPJPY), Deutsche Bank depositary, MUFG custodian. Mar 2026: strategic-disclosure day — Asset Management + Ventures + JPYC investment, all on the same day. Thirteen months of compounding setup.

16/ The fee-waiver is the tell. Metaplanet opened a 60-day fee-free window for converting $MTPLF → $MPJPY ADRs, running April 13 to June 12, 2026. Translation: management wants the ADR float deep, clean, and institutionally ready before something lands on top of it.

17/ The likely product — and why it fits the macro. The most plausible first product is a USD-denominated perpetual preferred, run on the same 144A playbook Strategy used for $STRC / $STRD / $STRF. And the macro story is exactly what makes the two-pool structure powerful: Japan is yield-starved (a 5–6% coupon clears domestically), the US is yield-rich (BTC-treasury perps already clear at 10–14%). Metaplanet can issue into both worlds at their respective rates, building optionality and taking advantage of the two deepest capital pools in the world as they evolve over the coming years.

18/ No other company has this structural setup. A debasing-currency balance sheet, holding the asset that hedges debasement, raising in the world's deepest dollar capital market — while its home market produces the structural tailwind.

19/ What this means for the US and Bitcoin. For the US: Japan is the leading edge, not the exception. US debt-to-GDP is ~125%, the 10Y is 4.59% — the same arithmetic eventually applies. Higher rates → higher debt service → political pressure on the Fed → yield curve control, dollar debasement, or both. The US is roughly 10–15 years behind Japan on the same curve. Japanese repatriation is one of the reasons that curve is being pulled forward right now.
For the dollar: short-term strength as the yen weakens further. But every reserve currency with high debt-to-GDP and aging demographics ends up where Japan is. The dollar's privileged reserve currency status buys time, but we are already seeing this start to unwind.
For Bitcoin: BTC is the only macro asset whose supply is fixed regardless of what any central bank decides. When bond markets stop trusting central planners — and the JGB curve is the first to break that trust at scale — Bitcoin's value proposition stops being abstract.
Short-term, BTC trades with risk-on/risk-off. It sold with bonds this week. But the structural bid keeps building: corporate treasuries, sovereign accumulation, capital fleeing fiscally-trapped currencies. Each Japan-style episode makes Bitcoin's reason for existing more obvious, not less.

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Options4Food @Options4Food

3 months ago

@leadlagreport Fucked

Options4Food retweeted

STRC.live

@STRC_live

3 months ago

$STRC opens at $100.00 with 233k shares in the first minute 🔔 But the day started early — 711k shares traded pre-market, ~394 BTC already accumulated before the bell ~524 BTC estimated so far today https://t.co/lVNalzUMK3

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Who to follow

Chico Ventures

@ChicoVentures

Find company with quality invest in them when no one else will repeat

Wambugu

@i_am_wambugu

Obsessed with financial markets . 🏴🇰🇪

jai rod

@saintjairod

⚜️ who dat / likes, retweets, followers, and follows do not = endorsements /

Options4Food @Options4Food

3 months ago

@leadlagreport Why hike rates? Why not just intervene in the oil market some kind or price cap? As I read Korea is considering it. It is also not nice but not hurting and tightening the general conditions

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Options4Food @Options4Food

3 months ago

@EneaDenkt The sooner it goes to zero the better it is

Options4Food @Options4Food

3 months ago

@ActuallyClimber countercyclical dividend management.

Options4Food @Options4Food

3 months ago

@ActuallyClimber If the fed blinks first, nothing.

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Options4Food @Options4Food

3 months ago

@ActuallyClimber Every btc they custody will permamently unavailable for basis trade based price supression so advanteiuos for btc and mstr price.

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Options4Food @Options4Food

4 months ago

@leadlagreport Markets turn when buyers left not when sellers.

Options4Food @Options4Food

4 months ago

@leadlagreport I anticipate market is trying to liquidate mstr but it wont succeed. And the the crowded shorts get liquidateted again and almost noone gonna understand what is happening with btc as it supposed to go down but it explodes. It may take some more time but it will happen

Options4Food @Options4Food

4 months ago

@leadlagreport Shaking out the tourists. Hide pnl and live.

Options4Food @Options4Food

4 months ago

@leadlagreport Unfortunately time is broken as well.

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Options4Food @Options4Food

4 months ago

@eliz883 Epic bounce incoming

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Options4Food @Options4Food

5 months ago

@RomeoInvest Congrats my friend, I wish you a wonderful year

Options4Food @Options4Food

7 months ago

@leadlagreport End of the world scenario. Jobs market and faith in the future is fucked for many. Accelerating debasement. The cure do not solve the problem, just shift towards the inevitable into the future. Valuations are extreme in present terms but cheap in future term. Good luck everyone.