E. Paul Matthews

This is the fridge I keep opening to stare into.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@Noahpinion What’s the culture from San Francisco that dominates? Three’s Company?

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@NateSilver538 I think the USA is officially ABD in Turkish. If Deutschland is cool with being called Germany everyone should just look to their example and chill.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@ramez China does best when the competetive environment rewards scale and price competition. Chips are *exactly* where their weakness has been so far. They need to do 100 inputs better before they see a return and they aren't going to sniff 2015-level ASML until 2033.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@ramez Chips are *exactly* where China struggles, though. Machines that make machines, jet engines, heavy duty gas turbines, high end machine tools, medical devices, metrology, optics and the enabling components that go in to them. They are huge in mid-range.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@ramez In 10 years they will be making lithography tools worse than today's best. In that time ASML will have moved on. If you're behind in installed compute in 2031, you can never catch up. You can't even beat a lead like Coca Cola's, much less one where self-improvement is happening.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@ramez ... but how many computers owned by the People’s Liberation Army run Windows? How many of them run Linux? How many of the AI models the PLA trains are built with PyTorch, the open-source machine learning library made by Meta?

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@aaron_renn When I'm at Culver's--and occasionally In-N-Out--it's really noticeable how the staff are clearly not participating in a prison work-release program.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@mattyglesias @lionel_trolling I was in Buffalo last month and I don’t know how it can get more Midwest than that.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@robkhenderson I don’t think that’s it. It’s harder to store a bike in Manhattan. And bike share works well with transit in places with it—hop on a rental and bike to the train or the last mile from the train. That’s how I use Chicago bike share and I’m not concerned about theft whatsoever.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@Noahpinion The unstated major premise is that Ukraine is “the modern battlefield”. It is not. Neither participant is near the technological frontier.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@Noahpinion

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

This is actually a great, insightful map.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@KrakauLaw @signinmonkey @fawfulfan The average July high is 84.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@JCRich @Noahpinion The lesson is: don’t be the force trying to push armor and men through a battlefield where everything is visible; and don’t be the army forced to use $500 drones because it lacks airpower, missiles and other options.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@JCRich @Noahpinion ...and both sides are forced to substitute cheap sensors and cheap precision strike for missing capacity. The U.S. would be f'd if we were in a static, 30 mile wide front and our side didn't have drones. But Ukraine is fighting under conditions we would avoid.

[E. Paul Matthews @OrdoSeclorum]

@emollick In the original script our brains were being used for energy efficient compute, but there was concern audiences wouldn't understand the concept.

[Dmitri Dolgov @dmitri_dolgov]

A good example of predictive AI from the Waymo Driver: in a split second, it predicted an initial crash of human-driven cars in the next lane, anticipated a secondary collision, and proactively shifted lanes — all while  managing its distance from the vehicles around it.