An Outlier From The Regression

Ex-interest rate/FX risk trader, Chrtrd Accountant, inv bank.
Be fearful of tail-risk.
Investor & discuss current affairs.
Random interests.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

Most people are rich (or poor) because they understand (or don't) one chart properly: compounding the same return on a larger number, provides a larger return or the same return in a much shorter time frame - get to 100k then don't interrupt it.

It's discipline and patience.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

@finiesta15 @CarterRoutes Well done totally missing the point.

I have better things to do than go around in circles.

It is obvious that outsized spending, which dwarf the private sector generated revenue, are going to destroy the country, in the same way any business would fail if they spent like fools.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

Nasdaq 100 is up 105% in 5 years.

It drops -2.4% and every commentator on X loses their sh**. 😅

Calm down and just buy on the downs, as well as the highs... Lol

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US stock market crashes as S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall sharply.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

@finiesta15 @CarterRoutes Not all do and it is only a minimum 3% but what is very clear is that the state pension is a terrible mechanism, really poorly designed and unsustainable.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

"Company owners have too much money, it's not fair."

- so why didn't you buy shares in their company? 🤔

Either participate in capitalism and productivity, or be quiet.

I am so sick of jealous people wanting to pull everything down just for the sake of it.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

SpaceX closes IPO order books Wednesday with $150 billion in orders, 2x oversubscription for the record listing, per YF

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

@finiesta15 @CarterRoutes Yes, actually, I do think we should reform pensions to have mandatory company pensions with mandatory individual contributions, and end the state pension except for very exceptional circumstances.

It is a £7 trillion albatross around the neck of the Treasury but so is the rest.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

It's embarrassing for something like Morningstar to be putting out things like this.

They claim SpaceX is worth $923bn, not $1.75bn, however, under whose timeframe? 🤔

SpaceX is the only company in the space economy and yes it is a small industry now, but it will be huge.

[Morningstar, Inc. @MorningstarInc]

We value SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO’s offering price.

Even giving SpaceX the benefit of the doubt in several key forecasts, only the most optimistic ‘Moonshot’ scenario approaches the IPO offering price. https://t.co/ibUZ4lUaWw

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

That's because it is crap and Apple doesn't know what it is doing with AI. $AAPL

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Apple $AAPL falls 4.95% after unveiling its biggest AI update, 'Siri AI.'

$230 billion was wiped out from its market cap.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

It wasn’t.

With rare exception, colonies were unprofitable, meaning more was spent building infrastructure like roads, railways, buildings, etc. than was exported.

And look at places like Singapore and Hong Kong. Both were colonies for a long time and yet they are extremely prosperous.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

"remove the truth because it affects my grifting propaganda" 🤣🤣🤣

[Jack @Jackkk]

remove the community note i don’t care abt the extra info

the post now gets demonetized for no reason

[Rush @exRAF_Al]

The same Lewis Hamilton who used a corporate leasing structure to save money on taxes (around £3.3 million in VAT) when acquiring his Bombardier Challenger 605 private jet in 2013? The same Lewis Hamilton who bought the £16.5 million jet through his British Virgin Islands company (Stealth Aviation Ltd) and who then set up an Isle of Man leasing company (Stealth (IOM) Ltd, to import it into the EU and sub-leased it to a UK jet management firm (TAG Aviation), which in turn provided it back to Hamilton and his Guernsey company under charter agreements? *That* Lewis Hamilton?

[GB Politics @GBPolitcs]

🚨NEW: Under the Labour government, UK debt has grown faster than every nation in the world, except Botswana

[@GBNEWS]

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

@finiesta15 @CarterRoutes You are wrong, you can't read and you missed the point.

Income tax is also impacted by inflation, so that is totally irrelevant and yes welfare is higher than income tax.

Socialism is taking from productive people and giving it to the useless (like those who can't read).

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

Brilliant from Trevor Philip.

David Lammy is a vile anti-white racist full of hypocrisy and all of the Labour MPs around him are enabling champagne socialists with intentions of grouping people to create a broken unfair system, so they can pick up the pieces (& votes). @JDVance

[Lee Harris @LeeHarris]

SUPERB! Trevor Phillip's BEAUTIFULLY exposes David Lammy and Labour's sickening hypocrisy.

He shows him the receipts of them ALL saying it's ok to feel "fury" and "anger" over George Floyd, while they criticise Farage for saying the same about Henry Nowak.

Satisfying to watch.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

Britain needs @reformparty_uk.

Just like the last American election if Kamala Harris won, if Reform UK does not win the next General Election, it may be our last real democratic election.

[The Free Speech Union @SpeechUnion]

Senior figures at Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service, under the command of Andy Burnham, have cautioned firefighters who support Reform UK over their political views.

In a further chilling assault on free speech, staff have also effectively been urged in an email to report colleagues who support Reform.

Fire brigade bosses have also said they are seeking legal advice on what to do about firefighters who decide to stand as Reform UK candidates. This is despite the fact that, unlike police officers, there is no legal bar preventing firefighters from participating in national or local politics.

In their email, fire brigade bosses Mr Petch and Ms Ahmed said: ’We are aware that some staff members have chosen to represent Reform UK in their local areas. We know this may cause concern within our network and wider.

’The individuals involved have been spoken to, to make it clear that as members of GMFRS (Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service) our core values and professional behaviours must be displayed at all times.

’The service is currently seeking formal legal guidance… to ensure we are protected from all perspectives and that our inclusive culture remains safe.

‘Our priority is and always will be ensuring that every member of this network feels supported, respected and safe at work.’

They also confirmed that they would be consulting the Fire Brigades Union on the matter.

In his role as Mayor of Greater Manchester, @AndyBurnhamGM — who is also tipped by some to be a future Prime Minister if he wins the Makerfield by-election — is also Greater Manchester’s Fire Commissioner, responsible for overseeing the service.

General Secretary of the Free Speech Union, Lord Young of Acton, has now written to Mr Burnham to raise concerns about the chilling effect this has on free speech.

Lord Young said that the ‘clear implication’ of the email from the fire brigade bosses was that ‘representing Reform UK constitutes an inherent threat to the institution’s culture and values and is to be treated as morally suspect’. He also highlighted that no action appears to have been taken against firefighters who support other political parties.

The letter also states: ‘Staff are further invited to report colleagues who support any groups that go against the service’s values, which effectively amounts to an instruction to inform on colleagues for their political beliefs.

’The email will create a chilling effect on the free speech of GMFRS employees who support Reform.

’The practical effect is that a public fire and rescue service governed by you is treating the lawful political activity of your electoral opponents as a reputational risk to their employer.

‘Regardless of whether this reflects your instruction, it reflects your governance; and a public office-holder who permits his institution to demonise or chill the speech and political activity of those who support his principal electoral rival cannot claim to be discharging that office with the impartiality it demands.’

Read more below 👇

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

@finiesta15 @CarterRoutes One simple fact destroys your entire universe of socialism:

Welfare spending is now higher than the total revenue from income tax.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

Annual S&P 500 shake-up is here:

Marvell $MRVL (semiconductor, AI, networking and photonics company) and Flex (specialist electronics) are in.

The Pool Company and Campbell's are out.

Jensen was right about Marvell.

https://t.co/OpT424RTjE

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Eggs

Egg Prices have now collapsed 98% from their March 2025 all-time high and are now at their lowest price in over a decade 🥚📉🥳

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

Donald Trump, surrounded by a team of the best business people in America, can successfully take stakes in American companies for the state.

Peter "Digital ID is to stop illegal migrants" Kyle, is certainly not qualified to. He is a grade-A moron.

[Cut My Tax @CutMyTaxUK]

Peter Kyle, who has never had a proper job in the private sector but who spent some years as an aid worker in NGOs, is going to be in charge of supposedly 'aggressive' investments in British private firms.

Billions of pounds will be used to take bigger stakes in private companies, resulting in UK taxpayers owning far more of privately owned businesses than has previously been the case, @thetimes reports.

What could possibly go wrong?

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

Also:

It is equal on X86 and only smaller on ARM architecture.
It creates Jevons paradox- less requirement to run allows increased usage, so use goes up.

[An Outlier From The Regression @OutlierBlackBox]

These posts are stupid and don't even understand the basics of a PC, never mind AI computing.

This only shrinks the data transfers on KVcache on chip and using 32gb ram. It allows larger (but small) models into the same personal computer.

Literally no impact to frontier AI.

[Leonard Rodman @RodmanAi]

SAM ALTMAN HAS A NEW PROBLEM. 🤯

Google just shrunk 31GB of AI memory down to 4GB.

The tool is called TurboVec.

It uses up to 16x less memory, searches faster than FAISS, runs fully offline, and works on a regular Mac.

No expensive GPU cluster.
No cloud dependency.
No compromise on speed.

→ 16x lower memory usage
→ Faster vector search
→ Works with LangChain & LlamaIndex
→ 100% open source

The race to build bigger AI models is loud.

The race to make them dramatically cheaper just got a lot more interesting.

Repo: https://t.co/08TFGtHL6K