Altan Ozler

#DefenseIndustry & #Business professional engaged in #Geopolitics #DefensePolicy #China #Russia. Adversary of viruses. Views expressed are solely my own

[Altan Ozler @OzlerAltan]

@DBDesRoches Good point, and the correct way to approach this fast moving conflict is to assess possibilities and likelihoods based on what is observable / raised claims, as you have been doing 👍

My quick-fire assessment was to put that IRGC claim in the 'probable copium' bucket.

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

ICYMI, "The Israeli Raid on Syria That Exposed the Weakness of Hardened Targets" @mosaicmag
Iran has assumed it can keep its assets safe by hiding them deep underground. The IDF’s daring operation in Masyaf may have shattered that assumption.
https://t.co/Sbu2i8a8ER

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

I disagree with this. Ukraine has destroyed or damaged Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS bombers at Russian airbases before, they have repeatedly targeted airbases with Russian strategic aviation (including the recent strike on Engels), large-scale UAV strikes deep into Russian territory (including in the Moscow region) are now common, Ukraine has damaged or destroyed many Russian oil facilities, Ukraine previously did serious damage to the Kerch bridge, Ukraine has killed generals and other officials in Russia, Ukraine struck the Kremlin with a UAV, Ukraine conducted an offensive into Kursk, the Wagner mutiny, etc.

This war has been very costly for Russia and the costs have increased—including many embarrassing episodes—but the war continues. I'm skeptical this will significantly alter Moscow's perception of whether to continue the war because bringing the war to Russia has not led to significant political pressure on Putin and Ukraine is clearly very important to Putin. This strike is important because it will degrade Russia's ability to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine, and will force Russia to shift resources to protect facilities far from Ukraine. Also, the air component is the weakest part of Russia's nuclear triad, and Ukraine has previously targeted these bombers.

[Tyler Rogoway @Aviation_Intel]

The biggest challenge with this issue is education. Many just don't take the time to learn the ins and outs of the UAS threat, there are many layers and nuances, emerging technologies. There are high up people in the military that don't even really understand these basics. Then really terrible assumptions fill the gaps. Our pilots, our troops, our generals, our local officials, need a crash course on all this NOW.

[Tyler Rogoway @Aviation_Intel]

I have focused on this issue above all else in my career. I care deeply about it. The failure of the DoD to foresee what was totally foreseeable, with obsessions with yesterday's threats is such a failure. We need to educate our non military leaders on what this is, a huge issue as well (see New Jersey). So much work to be done. Hardened aircraft shelters is still be debated in the Pacific. We are really in a bad spot here.

[Tyler Rogoway @Aviation_Intel]

For over a decade I have outlined the exact scenario as we just saw in Russia. It could happen in the U.S. tomorrow. This was a pivotal event. U.S. military and political leadership cannot live in partial denial of this threat anymore. Our most prized aircraft are sitting ducks.

[Tom Shugart @tshugart3]

Plenty of us have come up with stuff like this. It's just that not enough people in the right places are listening.

[NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports]

Insane. Footage shows Ukrainian drones at work deep inside Russian territory, obliterating Russian strategic aviation.

[RAND @RANDCorporation]

The Chinese Communist Party uses a system of coded speech to communicate policy directives to its bureaucrats.

Our new report analyzes these codes—collectively called "tifa"—which take the form of slogans, linguistic formulations, or key phrases: https://t.co/awlM4yUvpc

[Altan Ozler @OzlerAltan]

@RyanFedasiuk How did it nearly derail your career? And did you think that flak/hot water which you landed in was proportional to what you had originally posted?

[Tanvi Madan @tanvi_madan]

NYT had an interesting graphic about where India and Pakistan get their imported arms from (link to article below).

And there's even more complexity: Pakistan-China JF-17s have Russian engines; India's Tejas has American ones.

[🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @front_ukrainian]

❗️Soldiers from the 🇰🇵DPRK are already dressed in 🇷🇺Russian uniforms, the cadres have no more than 72 hours, - SPRAVDI.

This is the Serhiyiv training ground, Russian Federation.

[Federico Borsari فێدریکۆ بۆرساری @federicoborsar1]

It's clearly visible the launch of an AAM from the (likely) Su-57 toward the UAS. Possibly, the comms link between the two platforms was lost & the pilot decided to destroy it. In any case, this episode confirms that 🇷🇺is pushing manned-unmanned teaming experimentation.
2/n

[Federico Borsari فێدریکۆ بۆرساری @federicoborsar1]

The first combat loss of a #Sukhoi S-70 #Okhotnik-B #stealth combat UAS. The drone was flying alongside what seemed to be a #Su-57 Felon fighter jet. Apparently, the Su-57 lost control of the UAS & shot it down. Ilariously, the UAS fell into Ukrainian-controlled territory.
1/n

[Dara Massicot @MassDara]

Russia begins its response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch: 🧵

[Admiral James Stavridis, USN, Ret. @stavridisj]

Another indication of the growing alignment of Russia and China. They are teaming up to dominate Arctic trade. Wake up @NATO https://t.co/8qiOEM9T9O

[Richard Olszewski @Olszewski_RJO]

On D-Day, my father was a prisoner in a Nazi concentration camp. My mother was in slave labour for the SS.

Thanks to the bravery and sacrifice of all who fought in Normandy, they were liberated a year later and could make a life in Britain. Always grateful, never forget.
#DDay80

[Samuel Bendett @sambendett]

1/ One of the more relevant relationships to watch in the coming months will be between the incoming Defense Minister Belousov, the re-appointed Prime Minister Mishustin, Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshenko and the Minister of Digital Development Shadaev. All four are...

[Stars and Stripes @starsandstripes]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia started a new offensive against territory around Ukraine’s second-biggest city as Kremlin forces moved to breach the border in the northeast.
https://t.co/DgO4ges62t