Prince Heinell

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

July has been higher for the S&P 500 an incredible 11 years in a row.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Two measures of job openings show the labor market stopped getting softer around the end of last year. From the May JOLTS series:

• There were 1.03 job vacancies for every unemployed worker, up from 0.87 in December

• At 7.36 million on a three-month average, job openings are at the highest level since Jan. 2025

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The US cant afford higher rates

- In the next 12 months, around $8T of Treasuries need to be rolled.
- The average coupon on that stack is about 3.3%.
- The 1‑year Treasury is roughly 4%.

Rolling that $8T at today’s 1‑year level would add around $49B in annual interest costs, and that’s before you factor in the interest burden on an ongoing $2T annual deficit.

Volcker could crush inflation with double‑digit rates because inflation had already driven debt‑to‑GDP down from about 100% to around 30%.

First you inflate the debt away, then you raise rates to kill inflation.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS BY PEG RATIO

PEG < 1 usually means mispriced growth
PEG > 2 starts to push into the danger zone

Here’s how they stack up:
• $ALAB ~3.6x
• $INTC ~2.7x
• $LRCX ~2.6x
• $KLAC ~2.4x
• $AMAT ~2.2x
• $ARM ~1.9x
• $ASML ~1.7x
• $ANET ~1.7x
• $LITE ~1.1x
• $TSM ~1.1x
• $COHR ~1.0x
• $AMD ~0.8x
• $CRDO ~0.7x
• $NVDA ~0.7x
• $MRVL ~0.6x
• $AAOI ~0.6x
• $AVGO ~0.5x
• $ON ~0.4x
• $MU ~0.2x
• $SNDK ~0.2x

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Name a better month for the S&amp;P 500 than July going back 20 years.

I bet you can't.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

As we noted back on June 17, one of the historically weakest times of the year was here.

The S&amp;P 500 is currently down 5 days in a row and lower 7 of 8 days.

Is this really a surprise?

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$MU Micron CFO: "We expect FQ4 revenue to be a record $50.0 billion, plus or minus $1.0 billion; gross margin to be approximately 86.0%"

[Earnings Whispers @eWhispers]

#earnings for the week of June 29, 2026

https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY

$NKE $AVAV $STZ $GIS $FDS $BSET $CNXC $FC $UNF $MSM $PRGS $GBX $LNN

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

The change in hyperscaler vs chip stock free cash flow is stunning! (via BBG)

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

Micron CEO: "With respect to supply, our customers are recognizing that supply shortages in memory and storage will take considerable time to improve. ...we currently do not have line of sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand." $MU

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

$MU just delivered the most insane numbers in corporate history: +346% y/y &amp; +74% q/q revenue growth to $41.5bn in quarter revenue, at an astonishing 68% (!) GAAP net income margin.

Just unprecedented growth &amp; margin at this scale.

Earnings like this may never happen again.

.

[Fiscal.ai @fiscal_ai]

Micron reported $33 billion in operating income in Q2, +1,436% YoY.

Analysts were projecting $27 billion.

Wild times.

$MU

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Forecasters who can transpose the PPI and CPI into the May PCE are expecting a firm core print (and wide wedge with the CPI) on Thursday morning, yielding a 3.4% increase from a year earlier.

For context, four FOMC participants expect core PCE to end the year at 3.2% or lower. Another four expect it to end the year at 3.5% of higher. The remaining 10 have it at 3.3%-3.4% on a Q4-Q4 basis.

[Prince Heinell @PHeinell]

(The Daily Spark) Top Three Macro Risks at the Moment

https://t.co/JpUIAxin1l

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Investors are worried that tech companies are bumping up against what they can charge customers to use their most advanced large language models, reducing potential profits. Hyperscaler stocks have directly tracked token prices of late, via @DRBCurtis @BloombergTV

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The market is being driven by just 2 sectors:

The S&P 500 has added over +$5 trillion in market cap so far in 2026.

Meanwhile, AI stocks have added +$6 trillion in value, followed by +$200 billion added by the energy sector.

At the same time, other sectors have erased -$1 trillion of their market cap.

To put this differently, the majority of market gains have come from just 84 firms, with the rest from 22 energy stocks.

AI-related stocks now reflect ~47% of the S&P 500’s market cap, near an all-time high and up from 27% in early-2023.

AI is all that matters.

[김단테/Dante Kim @mynameisdjkim]

26년 2분기 실적발표 중요한 이유

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Hyperscalers: "check-writers"
Semis: "check-receivers"

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China may not have won the frontier AI race yet but it is clearly winning the usage, cost, and adoption battles.

📈 On OpenRouter, weekly usage of Chinese AI models has surged since the start of 2026 to the point where it now far exceeds US models on the platform. OpenRouter does not represent the entire AI market, nor the revenues of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Microsoft, but it is a strong signal of developer/API usage meaning an actual form of demand.

➡️ Chinese models do not need to be the best in the world across every benchmark to become dangerous. They mainly need to be good enough, much cheaper, easy to integrate and capable of addressing the majority of use cases. For many companies, the priority isn't necessarily to access the most powerful model but to use a reliable, fast, affordable and scalable one.

⚠️ However, more tokens do not necessarily mean more revenue but this clearly shows that competitive pressure is rising. If Chinese models continue to gain usage, they could put pressure on pricing, margins, and the premium attached to closed US models. For me, the narrative that American models will capture everything is becoming too simplistic.

The next phase of AI will obviously be a monetization battle.

*FT link: https://t.co/QWF5aN8ZGS
*Open Router link: https://t.co/KuMCtPBjkV

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

API prices of key AI models: US vs China