Paolo Mondini

BHS ‘20 | Springfield College Men's Volleyball & Sports Analytics

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

I am very proud to announce that I am verbally committed to Springfield College (Mass.), 11-time D3 National Champions!

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Here is some more data showing how well Malik Nabers has performed compared to other rookie wide receiver seasons since 2019. Very similar numbers to Puka Nacua from last year.

[Football Insights 📊 @fball_insights]

Rookie WRs since 2010. Malik Nabers 🚀

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

@camslan Thank you! It was all done in R

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Last year the NFL MVP voting switched to a point based system where the 50 voters rank a top 5 instead of selecting one player for the award

I created a model that simulates how many votes each MVP candidate will receive based on market average implied odds from sportsbooks:

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

I also want to give credit to @tejfbanalytics & @arjunmenon100 for inspiring the visualization of the table I created using their tutorials

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Trying to predict the opinions of 50 voters using Vegas odds and code is tricky. I’m sure that my model will be way off compared to what the actual breakdown of votes looks like tomorrow night but I still enjoyed making this and will consider it a win if it’s relatively close

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

The 49ers have had incredible success using 22 Personnel this season. Currently sitting at 0.41 epa/play with a 10.4% usage rate, the best epa/play of any individual personnel by any team (min. 5% usage rate). Here are the 49ers best player combinations in 22 Personnel:

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Garrett Wilson is now the 1st player in NFL history to have the following stats in 4 straight games:

12+ Targets
7+ Receptions
80+ Receiving Yards
0 Receiving Touchdowns

Safe to say Zach Wilson is struggling to find him in the endzone

@Stathead

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Using data from @SumerSports, it is clear that the 49ers usage of personnel diversity is playing a huge factor in their success as an offense. Well above the league average EPA/play for each personnel (datapoints in black) and even ranking in the top 10 for each.

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

@DaveKluge Here are the receivers (this season) that would benefit the most from this idea:

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

NFL Offensive & Defensive Eckel Rates so far this season from @SumerSports:

[parker fleming @statsowar]

You can now find Eckel Rates for NFL offenses and defenses on https://t.co/D1pf2cnwJV, if you're into that sort of thing!

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Over Expected Each Week, per @NextGenStats:

Week 2: +41
Week 3: +21
Week 4: -18
Week 5: -17
Week 6: -35
Week 7: -2

Third most rushing yards this season (514) but his efficiency numbers are trending downwards📉

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Achane joins Tim Biakabutuka as the only two running backs in NFL history to average 12 yards per rush over a 3 game span (min. 25 rushes)

[Joe Schad @schadjoe]

Miami Dolphins’ De’Von Achane is averaging 12.1 yards per rush

That’s an average you see in high school football, not the NFL

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

There are 10 RBs that have faced 8+ defenders in the box at a rate of 30% or higher (min. 20 attempts) this season, per @NextGenStats

Bijan Robinson is part of that group with a rush yards over expected per attempt of 2.32

The next best in that group?
Chuba Hubbard with 0.70

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Fastest Show on Turf

#FinsUp

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

This is a great resource from @SumerSports, a few stats that caught my eye:

Tyreek Hill in 2022 led the NFL in Yards Per Route Run (YPPR) by a good margin. He also had the highest YPPR in the following game scenarios: non-garbage time, down big, 4th qtr, & likely pass situations

[Tej Seth @tejfbanalytics]

the two highest paid receivers in the league and 5th round rookie who has played two career games. what a world we live in

https://t.co/5J5x0svREQ

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Among the 18 teams that missed the playoffs last season, here are the implied odds that they make the playoffs this upcoming season according to the betting market.

Lions, Saints, & Jets are all expected to make the jump this season.

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Updated timeline of 1st overall pick probability with the help of tweets from @JaimeEisner

The top 4 QBs have seen their stock rise for a variety of reasons - trades, combine performances, reddit posts - but it seems Bryce Young will come out on top tonight

#NFLDraft

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

Timeline of 1st Overall Pick Probability:

Jan 16 - Bryce Young is the favorite
Mar 10 - Panthers trade up to 1st pick, CJ Stroud📈
Apr 10 - Stroud & Young now neck and neck
Apr 15 - Young📈
Apr 17 - Young cancels the rest of his visits after his visit w/ Panthers

#NFLDraft

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

A few running backs that have just reached or are about to reach the 800 carry mark. All three will have a new HC or OC next season. It will be interesting to see if they begin to drastically fall off after the 800 cary mark.

[Tej Seth @tejfbanalytics]

things were going (relatively) well for the some of the 2017 running back class members until around that 800 carry mark where we've seen a decline in all of their games

[Paolo Mondini @PMondini16]

The Chiefs & Eagles had 6 opponents in common this season. Here is the offensive EPA/play and defensive EPA/play allowed breakdown vs. those 6 teams:

Chiefs Offense: .22
Eagles Offense: .10
Chiefs Defense: -.02
Eagles Defense: -.17

Source: https://t.co/GQkwZDApfR
@benbbaldwin