Here is some more data showing how well Malik Nabers has performed compared to other rookie wide receiver seasons since 2019. Very similar numbers to Puka Nacua from last year.
Last year the NFL MVP voting switched to a point based system where the 50 voters rank a top 5 instead of selecting one player for the award
I created a model that simulates how many votes each MVP candidate will receive based on market average implied odds from sportsbooks:
Trying to predict the opinions of 50 voters using Vegas odds and code is tricky. I’m sure that my model will be way off compared to what the actual breakdown of votes looks like tomorrow night but I still enjoyed making this and will consider it a win if it’s relatively close
The 49ers have had incredible success using 22 Personnel this season. Currently sitting at 0.41 epa/play with a 10.4% usage rate, the best epa/play of any individual personnel by any team (min. 5% usage rate). Here are the 49ers best player combinations in 22 Personnel:
Garrett Wilson is now the 1st player in NFL history to have the following stats in 4 straight games:
12+ Targets
7+ Receptions
80+ Receiving Yards
0 Receiving Touchdowns
Safe to say Zach Wilson is struggling to find him in the endzone
@Stathead
Using data from @SumerSports, it is clear that the 49ers usage of personnel diversity is playing a huge factor in their success as an offense. Well above the league average EPA/play for each personnel (datapoints in black) and even ranking in the top 10 for each.
D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Over Expected Each Week, per @NextGenStats:
Week 2: +41
Week 3: +21
Week 4: -18
Week 5: -17
Week 6: -35
Week 7: -2
Third most rushing yards this season (514) but his efficiency numbers are trending downwards📉
There are 10 RBs that have faced 8+ defenders in the box at a rate of 30% or higher (min. 20 attempts) this season, per @NextGenStats
Bijan Robinson is part of that group with a rush yards over expected per attempt of 2.32
The next best in that group?
Chuba Hubbard with 0.70
This is a great resource from @SumerSports, a few stats that caught my eye:
Tyreek Hill in 2022 led the NFL in Yards Per Route Run (YPPR) by a good margin. He also had the highest YPPR in the following game scenarios: non-garbage time, down big, 4th qtr, & likely pass situations
Among the 18 teams that missed the playoffs last season, here are the implied odds that they make the playoffs this upcoming season according to the betting market.
Lions, Saints, & Jets are all expected to make the jump this season.
Updated timeline of 1st overall pick probability with the help of tweets from @JaimeEisner
The top 4 QBs have seen their stock rise for a variety of reasons - trades, combine performances, reddit posts - but it seems Bryce Young will come out on top tonight
#NFLDraft
Timeline of 1st Overall Pick Probability:
Jan 16 - Bryce Young is the favorite
Mar 10 - Panthers trade up to 1st pick, CJ Stroud📈
Apr 10 - Stroud & Young now neck and neck
Apr 15 - Young📈
Apr 17 - Young cancels the rest of his visits after his visit w/ Panthers
#NFLDraft
A few running backs that have just reached or are about to reach the 800 carry mark. All three will have a new HC or OC next season. It will be interesting to see if they begin to drastically fall off after the 800 cary mark.
things were going (relatively) well for the some of the 2017 running back class members until around that 800 carry mark where we've seen a decline in all of their games
The Chiefs & Eagles had 6 opponents in common this season. Here is the offensive EPA/play and defensive EPA/play allowed breakdown vs. those 6 teams:
Chiefs Offense: .22
Eagles Offense: .10
Chiefs Defense: -.02
Eagles Defense: -.17
Source: https://t.co/GQkwZDApfR
@benbbaldwin