Ask yourself why Anthropic magically needs hundreds of billions of dollars a year for compute after IPO, when they were paying essentially nothing before.
Ask yourself why OpenAI was projecting $300 billion in losses on compute through 2030 when Anthropic was claiming to be profitable.
It’s the same business.
Ask yourself why the hell wouldn’t Anthropic just pay the $7.5 billion of original convertible notes with $120 billion cash on hand rather than letting it convert to $108 billion of equity.
Don’t be an idiot.
Audemars Piguet ha presentado The Watch Keepers, su propia plataforma de relojes de segunda mano y vintage. Se veía venir.
Rolex abrió la puerta con su programa de Certified Pre-Owned y ya lo he dicho varias veces: las marcas no iban a quedarse mirando cómo otros hacían negocio con sus relojes antiguos. Veremos a muchas más seguir el mismo camino.
¿Es el fin de los vendedores de vintage? Lo veo complicado. Un buen vendedor de vintage no vende relojes, los cura. Sabe qué pieza merece la pena antes de que el mercado la reconozca, sabe a quién llamar y sabe quién la va a cuidar.
Eso son años de relaciones personales, cafés, ferias y llamadas a deshoras.
Ninguna marca puede comprarlo con una web nueva.
https://t.co/oGRHVKBdcH
@AriKagan_ I've always said it, but it just seems more true every day.
Anthropic and it's employees are the very people that should be least trusted with AI progress.
There is nothing more dangerous than self righteous idiots expecting others to fix problems they created.
I'm noticing the growing possibility that Europe becomes very poor in the course of the next 10-20 years. You have the following factors:
- Heavy industry totally uncompetitive against China, automakers etc. rapidly losing ground
- Services industry totally uncompetitive against AI
- No natural resources, or regulatory hurdles making their extraction impossible
- No access to the new economy (no AI, no data centers, uncompetitive energy sector)
- Client states caught in one-way welfare ratchets, spend reallocation + investment well-nigh impossible
This seems under-contemplated. And we're talking really, seriously dirt poor: taken to its logical conclusion, many countries will have much, much smaller services and manufacturing industries -- economies may become much more heavily skewed toward natural resources and energy markets, where Europe has made it impossible for itself to compete.
And I'm not saying that this is likely to happen, it's an extreme case. But the probability is greater than zero and appears to be growing. The EV of that is so negative that it's surprising to me that it's not coming up more.
The first thing to change will be terms of service and blocking these agents. Not because the value is low but because the risk is high. Banks will chose self preservation and risk mitigation.
Then we will need to find a security and governance architecture that will get external auditors comfortable.
These are the practical issues of human risk tolerance in AI diffusion that model capability can’t solve.
If the AI bot swarms are in the banks, they’re likely already nested into voting machines, or will be very soon and will then work within the network to change votes. It’s a matter of when, not if this will happen. Elections should immediately be moved to ONLY paper ballots. Our $ and elections are at risk.
Regarding potential attacks on energy, food, and water infrastructure, the threat is quite real. Someone is currently probing infra and feeling it out, it is an active threat. Even a little preparation can be helpful, just in case. This comes from the joint cybersecurity advisory released by the NSA and partner agencies on August 19:
'The threat actors are conducting reconnaissance and capability development against U.S.-based Siemens PLC installations using Al-generated exploitation scripts disguised as legitimate monitoring tools. The actors leverage Internet scanning services to find Internet-exposed PLCs running outdated software or that are otherwise poorly protected. The U.S. critical infrastructure sectors most targeted by this threat activity include Critical Manufacturing, Energy, Water and Wastewater, Chemical, Food and Agriculture, and Commercial Facilities. This is not a theoretical risk - it is an active threat. Depending on the specific circumstances, exploitation of poorly protected PLCS could lead to disruption of critical industrial processes, safety incidents, downtime or equipment damage, compromise of sensitive data, compliance violations, and cascading impacts across interconnected systems.'
'Using Al to generate exploitation scripts represents an evolution in threat actor capabilities, dramatically reducing the technical expertise and time required to develop working ICS exploitation scripts and malicious tools. In addition, Al enables adversaries to rapidly leverage additional attack vectors and adapt to defensive measures. Threat actors can easily collect public information about vulnerabilities and weaknesses, find exposed and exploitable PLCs, and use Al-generated scripts to act on that information. If PLCs are exposed to the Internet, they are at high risk for exploitation.
Threat actors are leveraging open source industrial automation libraries - specifically snap7.d11/python-snap7 - combined with Al-assisted scripting to create custom tools that mimic legitimate OT monitoring solutions. These tools provide read/write access to Siemens S7 Series PLC memory, configuration data, and ladder logic programs via the S7comm protocol.'
This 32-storey skyscraper could be constructed in Houston. Designed by Texas-based STG Design, O27 will contain more than 520,000 square feet of office space, with a series of outdoor terraces running up its curving exterior.
The tower’s distinctive shape has been developed using computational design, allowing its curved exterior to accommodate efficient, repeatable office floorplates. Triangular glass panels will wrap the building, while a nine-storey parking podium will support a landscaped terrace.
The project is being developed by Broadview Real Estate on the site of a former hotel at 4701 Westheimer Road, close to Houston’s Galleria district.
The developer is targeting completion in 2028, although a construction start date and equity partner have yet to be confirmed.
The proposal comes as Houston sees renewed interest in high-end office development, with several major schemes planned or underway across the city.
📷 STG Design
Churches attacked in France in recent years. Not isolated cases. A systematic attack on our Christian identity. Over 1000 churches targeted. France is the warning bell for all of Europe.
This is a stupid discussion. What tax has ever been temporary or not renewed in CA? Of course it’s not a one time tax and of course the threshold will come down to 500 million and then 250 million and then 100 million. And then 1 million
Good thread.
Just to note here that too much of the discussion in some ways is focused on the "wealth tax" point and not enough on the "one-off tax."
It's easy to show that a one-time retroactively applied tax has very appealing features IF THE ONE-TIME ASPECT IS CREDIBLE.
I told you guys, long ago, this is an anti-incumbent election. Karen Bass has a ceiling, because her record is so awful. I remember some lady in the Palisades was foolishly getting my supporters to vote for Karen in the primary cuz she had devised this hair-brained scheme to block out Raman, and she thought that having people vote for my opponent instead of me would help. She assumed that I was a shoe-in for the general, and she also assumed I couldn't beat Nithya. The reality is, Karen can't beat Nithya. It doesn't matter how low IQ Nithya is...she's technically a different biological organism than Karen, therefore, naive voters can lie to themselves and say "I'm voting for change!" And while that's technically correct, Nithya is a different organism, the policies will not be different, and there will be no change in the fate of LA. You're just replacing a communist with a foreign born communist. That's the "change".
Karen is losing. That's why her surrogates have been calling me in a panic, desperate to get me to meet with her and give her a PR boost. She's well behind. The only question now is who's better at stuffing the ballots? The old school union machine? Or the ascendant DSA street animals?
Ouch. Looks like they will lose a billion dollars or more this year.
After JetBlue, American is the carrier I’m watching as a canary in the coal mine, and the canary is getting quiet.
Someone should also look into whether donors are redirecting their money to Kalshi & Polymarket to skew betting odds to influence voters (like D-skewed polls do). From the donor’s perspective: if I donate to a campaign my money is gone, if I instead bet that money on my preferred candidate and he loses I’m no worse off but if he wins I profit.
@rynorhn People that give AI agents such as GrokBot and Muse access to their bank accounts and trading accounts are absolutely crazy. There are so many negative outcomes to consider.