Staring down the actual Declaration of Independence before stepping into the octagon as an underdog to beat the piss out of an undefeated fighter in front of the world is an extraordinary level of legendary
How I like to play against Vegas;
- “projected” home runs for the day…sweet spot usually is O 30 for me
- runs o/u …(Vegas rarely ever loses …the higher the o/u the better … usually fade games with lines at 7.5/8U but those lower run lines are GREAT for doubles/strikeouts)
- strikeouts… (usually fade high strikeout games 5.5/6+ & most guys will NOT hit homers against J Misiorowski/Ohtani/D Cease/G Williams/P Skenes but again great for singles/doubles/ total bases)
Also pitcher matchup( left handed pitchers GENERALLY are harder to hit against due to timing and less of them in general)
- hit history… arguably the biggest factor I watch for … review the last 5 games of the player you like NOT for homers but for HITS you CAN’T hit homers if you can’t get hits… usually like 4-6 hits total in their last 5 games
- odds for a single Vs triple … ( again Vegas never loses) usually guys with (+) money to hit a single will hit the homers because their history suggest they go for the big play… guys @ (-) money for singles play safer and will have a 300-400 range for a double… anybody with OVER ~8,000 odds for a triple usually is a immediate fade for homers because more often than not your favorite guy to go yard hits it right off the wall and you’re fuming getting the *almost homerun* tweets notifications
- hot bats … more often than not the better hitters will streak homers into 2-3ish games because they just need to see the ball homer once to keep swinging ( however players who hit 2 in 1 game get walked following game)
>personal hot spot odds for homers
320*375*425*475*525*575*680*880*1050*
- HISTORIC MOMENTS , player is 1 homer away from career 50/100/150/200/250/300/350/400 homers … more likely than Not they will spend all their at bats going for it
- ball parks! Hugely underrated factor you ever see the *almost home run* twitter page say “ home run in x of 30 ball parks… yeah it’s because NOT every ball park is the same distance from home plate to the fence!
>
Top 3 Furthest/WORST parks to Homer
> Fenway park 420Feet (Red Sox)
>Oracle Park 415 feet(San Fran Giants)
>Comerica Park 415feet (Detroit tigers)
Top 3 Shortest/BEST parks to Homer
>Petco Park 396ft (padres)
>Angel stadium 396ft (Los Angeles Angels)
>Wrigley Field 400ft (Chicago Cubs)
*This is where the players you chose matter*
>
That’s just the Home plate to middle outfield distance- many parks have shorter distance on the inner walls( left field / right field)
Right Handed batters will hit the ball to the LEFT… so if a park has a shorter Left field and you have a righty that you like … hammer it!
If they are left handed batters and the RIGHT field is shorter hammer it!
~ batters vs pitcher history ~
Take it with a grain of salt, yeah usually if a guy has X amount of homers against a pitcher they’ll go yard but that could also be the pitcher being absolute garbage.
~ Game Environment ~ generally speaking the better players/teams don’t like blowing out teams because it’s bad TV so usually bet the favorites to hit doubles and the 500+ odds guys for homers (it sounds counter intuitive but trust)
~ Batting Rotation ~
Notice how Schwarber/harper on a tear this year? Not a coincidence pitchers have to decide between giving up a bomb to Schwarber leading off ( give up 1 point) or giving up a bomb to Harper usually 3rd or 4th batter with players potentially on base giving up more than 1 point… also notice back to back homers come from iffy players to the best player because the pitcher is so focused on the big hitter!
Last But Not Least… Weather!
Keeping it simple,
sunny + wind blowing OUT ✅✅
Fair weather + wind blowing IN ❌❌
Wind blowing to left + righty batter✅
Wind blowing right + righty batter ❌
Wind blowing to the right + lefty batter✅
Wind blowing to the left + lefty batter ❌
Outliers!
Absolute dogs who can go yard on any pitcher, at any park!
Yordan/Woods/Judge/ohtani/Buxton/Schwarb+Harper/Goodman/murakami/trout
Gaethje KO345+1600✅ 45Dec+900✅
AND NEW!!!!!
YOU ILIA TOPURIA SUCKERS GOT COOKED BY JUSTIN GAETHJE THE HIGHLIGHT!!!!!!
DOWN GOES SPAIN!!!
WHAT A CARD!!!
AMERICA!!!!!!! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
USA USA USA USA!!!!!
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