Carl Beck

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[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

Stay Humble and Stack Sats... Ignore these 10 principles at your peril.

[Lyle Pratt @lylepratt]

GPT4 summarizing the doctrine of “Stay Humble and Stack Sats” with 10 core principles:

1. Educate Yourself: Understand what Bitcoin is and why it's valuable. Continuous learning is key.
2. Stack Sats: Regularly acquire Satoshis regardless of the Bitcoin price. This can be through purchasing or earning.
3. Stay Humble: Avoid getting carried away by temporary highs and lows in the Bitcoin market.
4. Save More Than You Spend: Aim to live within your means and save a portion of your earnings in Bitcoin.
5. Be Patient: Recognize that significant wealth accumulation takes time. Don't expect to get rich quick.
6. Embrace Volatility: Bitcoin's price can fluctuate wildly. Accept this as part of the journey.
7. Use a Cold Wallet: Store your Bitcoin in a secure, offline wallet to protect against theft.
8. Avoid Debt: Try not to borrow money to invest in Bitcoin. Over-leveraging can lead to financial stress and risk.
9. Think Long Term: Bitcoin is often viewed as a long-term investment, so resist the urge to make short-term, speculative trades.
10. Be Your Own Bank: Embrace the ethos of Bitcoin by taking control of your own financial destiny. Do not rely on third parties for storing or managing your Bitcoin.

cc @ODELL

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

Hey @americanhodl8 , I was just listening to your takes on Greenland in episode 257 of the @PrestonPysh podcast.
I as a Dane assume you, as a fellow bitcoiner, believe in sovereignty and property rights, and therefore in not taking other people’s stuff through use or threats of force. Right?

Ok, so your take, that at some point there will be a deal to acquire Greenland, basically boils down to a number. Right?

Setting aside for a second your claim that the US “needs” Greenland (I assume you mean “must own”) for national security reasons (spoiler, it doesn’t), then why would the Kingdom of Denmark and Greenland ever trade an absolutely finite scarce asset - land- for fiat dollars?

As I posted previously, the only fair trade would be in another absolutely finite scarce asset. I propose #btc , but I’m not sure the 200k BTC that the US supposedly owns would be enough to balance the scales.

On the question of “need”, If the US was so concerned with National security, then why were so many troops pulled from bases on Greenland over the past decades? Why were so many bases on Greenland closed? If the US is concerned with access to rare earths, then why not just make exclusive trade deals with Greenland?
Why not just accept the repeated invitations from Denmark to increase the military footprint or make trade deals?

As it is, the US of course NEEDS national security. But it doesn’t NEED to own Greenland to get national security.
Rather, it looks more like Trump actually just WANTS Greenland.

And as the Stones put it - You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometime, you’ll find, you get what you need.

https://t.co/uRh6hADfjU

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

How much is Greenland worth? It seems a bad idea to swap a scarce asset (land) for an unlimited (USD)

A thought experiment - let’s play this out:
Denmark proposes to swap Greenland for the entire US BTC holding of ~200k BTC

Either:
A. US accepts, and we know the true US long term valuation of BTC, or
B. US declines, and we know the true US long term valuation of BTC.

@LukeGromen @PrestonPysh @jackmallers @saylor @BITVOLT @OptimistFields

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@AdamBLiv @AdamBLiv I love your posts, but why don’t you think this is priced in? Honestly curious, as this is now common knowledge on the street…

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@jv_finance @FractalVeritas Great stuff @jv_finance!
What’s the R2 for the 86 day lag vs other offsets?

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@AdamBLiv it stands to reason that PCV decreases the higher the NAV... So comparing PCV across treasury companies with different NAVs is a bit misleading, as it doesn't take into account how big the NAV stack is... I would love to see a chart plot comparing PCV (y axis) to NAV (x axis) for all treasury companies.... Would help to identify companies that are stacking harder than would be expected from their current NAV size... I expect a downward sloped regression line... any outliers (above the line) would be overperforming relative to their NAV...

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

Very interesting spaces! thanks for your insights @BritishHodl @michael_venuto !
I would love to hear a more detailed discussion of the tax treatment for Dubai residents... Ie. are some of the 30% withheld taxes returned at year-end when some of the #MSTY payouts are re-classified as ROC?
Might be a topic for a future spaces or youtube video?

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

Has anyone long-term backtested hodling #mstr vs hodling #msty with 100% drip and finally vs holding #mstr flipping into #msty for a few days to collect dividend and then flipping back to #mstr including dividends immediately after payout, rinsing and repeating every month?

@PrestonPysh @IIICapital @JoshMandell6 @dgt10011 @PunterJeff @LynAldenContact @BritishHodl

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

How much is Greenland worth? It seems a bad idea to swap a scarce asset (land) for an unlimited (USD)

A thought experiment - let’s play this out:
Denmark proposes to swap Greenland for the entire US BTC holding of ~200k BTC

Either:
A. US accepts, and we know the true US long term valuation of BTC, or
B. US declines, and we know the true US long term valuation of BTC.

@LukeGromen @PrestonPysh @jackmallers @saylor @BITVOLT @OptimistFields

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@dylanleclair @PrestonPysh this might be of interest to you too. An event study I co-authored 20 years ago. Looking at announcement effects on CPS calls from 1973-2005.

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@dylanleclair Here is the link to pdf of thesis.

https://t.co/uQQzKuTc5D

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@WallStreetSilv The Americans

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@Steen_Jakobsen Good luck Steen! Are u and Linuscapital moving into BTC?

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@thomas_fahrer great resource, thx @thomas_fahrer ! Just FYI, There is a slight issue with the Assets filter, its not taking 3 digits into account, so IBIT 707 lists below HODL 88...

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

Kommer Nye Nye Borgerlige til at skære i top top skatten?
#dkpol #nyeborgerlige

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@BitcoinMaxiHodl #BTC only!

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

Tbh locking in a 14% return over a year on #btc seems like a massive risk to me given the capital you’d need to tie up in your trading account, fees, counterpart risk etc.
As opposed to just HODLing in cold storage and participating in the recent historical CAGR of more than 50%. Especially in 2024 with all the tailwinds: ETF, halving, FASB… #Bullish

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

HM Queen Margrethe II of Denmark just announced her abdication. On Jan 14 2024.

Thank you for your your service!

#denmark
#dkpol

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

### Phase 2: Gradual Reduction of Federal Reserve Functions

1. **Interest Rate Policy**: Gradually relinquish control over interest rates, allowing them to be determined by the market.

2. **Reduced Market Intervention**: Scale back open market operations and other forms of intervention in financial markets.

3. **Balance Sheet Reduction**: Methodically reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, including the sale of government securities and other assets.

### Phase 3: Transition of Essential Functions

1. **Monetary Functions**: Transfer responsibilities like check clearing, currency issuance, and financial services to the Treasury or private sector entities.

2. **Regulatory Functions**: Reallocate regulatory and supervisory functions to other federal or state regulatory agencies.

3. **Emergency Lending**: Establish alternative mechanisms for emergency lending in financial crises, potentially through a consortium of private banks or a government agency.

### Phase 4: Establishment of a New Monetary System

1. **Currency Backing**: Consider adopting a commodity standard (like gold) or a basket of commodities to back the currency, or explore a decentralized digital currency system.

2. **Private Banking System**: Encourage the development of a full-reserve banking system or a free banking system where banks issue their own currencies backed by commodities or other assets.

3. **Legal Tender Laws**: Repeal or amend legal tender laws to allow for the use of alternative currencies and facilitate a competitive currency system.

### Phase 5: Long-Term Monitoring and Adjustment

1. **Economic Monitoring**: Continuously monitor the economy and financial markets for stability, adjusting policies as necessary.

2. **Feedback Mechanism**: Establish mechanisms for feedback and policy adjustment based on economic performance and stability.

3. **International Coordination**: Engage in international dialogue and coordination to address the impacts on global financial systems and foreign exchange markets.

### Important Considerations

- **Risk Management**: Each step should be taken with caution to avoid financial crises, inflation or deflation spikes, and economic disruptions.

- **Gradual Implementation**: A phased approach over several years or even decades would be necessary to ensure stability and allow for adjustments based on economic feedback.

- **Political Viability**: Such a plan would require significant political will and consensus, which may be challenging to achieve.

- **International Implications**: The role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency means that the international implications of such a change would be significant and must be carefully managed.

This hypothetical plan outlines a broad framework and would need to be filled in with detailed policy and operational steps. It represents a drastic shift in economic policy and would be accompanied by significant challenges and risks.

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

Had an interesting conversation with chatGPT this morning, resulting in a 5-phase playbook to abolish the FED.
You’re welcome #jmilei #vivekgramaswamy #RobertKennedyJr

Would love your take on how viable this plan is?
#profstonge
#saifedean
#lynaldencontact

Cc:
#petermccormack

Here goes:
Propose a viable action plan to phase out central banking in the US

ChatGPT:
Phasing out central banking, specifically the Federal Reserve in the U.S., would be a monumental task with profound implications for the economy and financial system. It would require a carefully structured, multi-phase approach to minimize economic disruption. Here's a hypothetical action plan:

### Phase 1: Preparation and Legal Framework

1. **Economic Impact Study**: Commission comprehensive studies to understand the full impact of phasing out the Federal Reserve on the economy, financial stability, and international markets.

2. **Legislative Action**: Pass legislation to amend or repeal the Federal Reserve Act, defining a clear timeline and legal framework for the transition.

3. **Public Communication**: Clearly communicate the plan and its implications to the public, financial institutions, and international partners to maintain confidence and transparency.

[Carl Beck @Paintshooter]

@soewerein100 @stackhodler @robert_spalding What happens when 1 sat buys a house? Will we need to change the code, or will smaller purchases have to move to L2? Fractions of a sat…