Palissy Advisors tenth anniversary this month and main theme: Challenging the Oil Inventory Myth
The oil markets oversupplied situation is clearly visible in the chart below at a 9 year seasonal high when excluding 2020 using the data provided by our data partner Kayrros #OOTT
Not that hard to explain. Chinese private refiners curtailed purchases to a 10 yr low because they don’t want to buy oil above $80 with sanctioned countries discounts gone while losing $15/bbl on refining. #OOTT
It was and it remains a painful mistake to consider owners of that gigantic storage are not driven by economic factors. While they frequently receive instructions from Central authorities, we also had evidence of a sharp destocking in a recent past (-120mbbls oct20-Mar22).#OOTT
It was telling then to see that this destocking stopped when they had the opportunity to buy discounted oil. China inventory behaviour is much more complex than estimating their are relentlessly building a gigantic SPR/CPR buffer for whatever supposed geopolitical reason #OOTT
It was telling then to see that this destocking stopped when they had the opportunity to buy discounted oil. China inventory behaviour is much more complex than estimating their are relentlessly building a gigantic SPR/CPR buffer for whatever supposed geopolitical reason #OOTT
Not that hard to explain. Chinese private refiners curtailed purchases to a 10 yr low because they don’t want to buy oil above $80 with sanctioned countries discounts gone while losing $15/bbl on refining. #OOTT
It was and it remains a painful mistake to consider owners of that gigantic storage are not driven by economic factors. While they frequently receive instructions from Central authorities, we also had evidence of a sharp destocking in a recent past (-120mbbls oct20-Mar22).#OOTT
The AI mania is pricing in macro outcomes that are pretty hard to imagine over the next 5 years. I pencil some of those out in my free blog app piece this week:
https://t.co/cpwZVvb7Ou
Oil Majors Hit the Brakes on Clean Spend
Oil supermajors led the retrenchment in transition-related investment in 2025. Their combined low-carbon spend fell 65% to $8.3 billion, the lowest since 2019. All seven firms reduced spending, marking the first such occurrence in BNEF’s tracking as far back as 2015.
Crazy chart from JPMorgan.
We all know the narrative that the US is "energy independent" — but the spike in US gasoline prices over the past 2mo has outpaced everywhere except Southeast Asia, the region most dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf.
@FirstSquawk AKap Energy’s helium intelligence was cited by multiple major media outlet this week as markets recalibrate after Qatar’s LNG halt — because when the helium narrative moves, decision‑makers turn to our data first. https://t.co/b0KEftRwW6
Hannah Arendt avait déjà posé les questions politiques clefs de notre siècle. @MariamMartinezB nous invite à redécouvrir une pensée plus actuelle que jamais.
À lire absolument.
https://t.co/GqtRR79aZz
1/7
Good FT article on declining investment growth in China: "A sharp decline in reported investment in China suggests President Xi Jinping’s campaign against excessive industrial competition may be having an impact on the Chinese economy."
https://t.co/ClY8ISWvhy via @ft