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Free picks everyday | Player Props with detailed write ups | NBA, NCAAB, NFL, UFC 🏀🏈🥊| Ball knower | +79.85u in 2024 #GamblingTwitter #IFB

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NBA SEASON RECAP🏀📊

NBA Regular Season: +38.47U
(245-197, 55.4% Hit Rate, 8.70% ROI)

NBA Playoffs: +34.61U
(98-62, 61.3% Hit Rate, 21.63% ROI)

Overall: +73.08U💵
(343-259, 56.98% Hit Rate, 12.14% ROI)

What a year. Was an absolute grind. Not our best regular season but we went on a crazy run throughout the playoffs. This is my 4th consecutive winning season in the NBA, making 40U+ every season. Shoutout to the ML crew and @propsmadness. We’ll be sprinkling on some Golf and UFC until the NFL season comes around. Proud of the hard work, the profit, and the consistency. That’s a wrap🐼

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@jckhhhjk Betting week 18 is pretty tough. Taking the week off. Be back for playoffs

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NFL Week 17 Full Betting Card🐼

Straight Bets:
1U: T. McBride o76.5 Rec. Yds (-112)
1U: M. Gesicki o25.5 Rec. Yds (-112)
1U: J. Meyers o59.5 Rec. Yds (-110)
1U: D. Achane o26.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: S. Diggs o60.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: T. Pollard u72.5 R+R Yds (-111)
1U: D. Washington o25.5 Rec. Yds (-112)
1U: B. Hall o57.5 Rush Yds (-112)

Ladders:
0.25U: S. Diggs 80+ Rec. Yds (+186)
0.25U: B. Hall 75+ Rush Yds (+194)

Parlays & Value Plays:
0.25U: Round Robin (+2151)
- B. Thomas Jr. 70+ Rec. Yds
- T. Shough 210+ Pass | 15+ Rush
- E. Higgins 35+ Rec. Yds

Busy with Christmas so no write ups for today. BOL🎁

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@JayDiddy__ No official plays but I like the spot for Jennings and Loveland

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@skramer055 @murraymstrclass That was a strong lean with no DK

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Yessir. For Diggs, he is averaging 73.3 YPG in games where he plays more than 55% of snaps. No Boutte, Hollins, and maybe Douglas for the Pats today. Also has a great man/zone matchup. For Breece, the Pats are without their 3 top tacklers and have faced the lowest PROE over the last 3 weeks, meaning teams are choosing to run on them even in trailing scripts. Henry (128), Cook (107), Singletary (68), and Chase Brown (107) have all smashed in the past 4 weeks. Hope that helps

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NFL Christmas Full Betting Card🎄

Straight Bets:
1U: C. Lamb o79.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: T. Burks o22.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: J. Nailor o17.5 Rec. Yds (-108)
1U: D. Montgomery o30.5 Rush Yds (-114)
1U: I. Pacheco u8.5 Longest Rec. (-110)

Parlays & Value Plays:
0.25U: Round Robin (+1794)
- C. Lamb 100+ Rec. Yds
- J. Johnson 210+ Pass Yds
- M. Brosmer 210+ Pass Yds

No writeups today. Merry Christmas🎅🏽

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NFL Week 16 Full Recap🏈

+1.12U — Late on the recap but solid week. Determined to hit a RR before the regular season ends. Christmas next.

Straight Bets: +1.04U
✅1U: T. Ferguson o19.5 Rec. Yds (-112)
✅1U: T. Bigsby o12.5 Rush Yds (-110)
✅1U: M. Mariota u202.5 Pass Yds (-114)
✅1U: C. Olave o61.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
✅1U: G. Pickens o64.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
✅1U: D. Singletary o28.5 Rush Yds (-110)
✅1U: J. Allen u251.5 Pass+Rush (-112)
❌1U: C. Loveland o43.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
❌1U: L. McConkey o45.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
❌1U: J. Waddle u53.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
🪝1U: M. Brown o3.5 Receptions (+120)
🪝1U: B. Strange o39.5 Rec. Yds (-114)

Ladders: +1.31U
✅0.25U: T. Ferguson 30+ Rec. Yds (+190)
✅0.25U: T. Bigsby 25+ Rush Yds (+291)
✅0.25U: D. Singletary 40+ Yds (+209)
❌0.25U: L. McConkey 65+ Yds (+195)
❌0.25U: L. McConkey 80+ Yds (+380)

Parlays and Value Plays: -1.23U
0.25U: Round Robin #1 (+2240)
✅J. Burrow 280+ Pass | 2+ TDs
❌K. Cousins 220+ Pass | 2+ TDs
❌B. Nix 250+ Pass | 2+ TDs
0.25U: Round Robin #2 (+2012)
✅C. Brown 40+ Rush | 4+ Rec
❌D. Achane 80+ Rush | 20+ Rec
❌A. Jones 50+ Rush | 15+ Rec
0.25U: Round Robin #3 (+1755)
❌ J. Gibbs 70+ Rush | 30+ Rec | ATD
❌ C. Stroud 230+ Pass | 2+ TDs
❌T. Shough 200+ Pass | 20+ Rush

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@JayDiddy__ Would never blame you for taking a TE against the Bengals but I can’t back Ewers

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NFL Week 16 Full Betting Card🐼

Straight Bets:
1U: L. McConkey o45.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: C. Olave o61.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: M. Brown o3.5 Receptions (+120)
1U: G. Pickens o64.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: D. Singletary o28.5 Rush Yds (-110)
1U: J. Allen u251.5 Pass+Rush (-112)
1U: J. Waddle u53.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: B. Strange o39.5 Rec. Yds (-114)

Ladders:
0.25U: L. McConkey 65+ Yds (+195)
0.25U: L. McConkey 80+ Yds (+380)
0.25U: D. Singletary 40+ Yds (+209)

Parlays and Value Plays:
0.25U: Round Robin #1 (+2240)
- K. Cousins 220+ Pass | 2+ TDs
- J. Burrow 280+ | 2+ TDs
- B. Nix 250+ Pass | 2+ TDs
0.25U: Round Robin #2 (+2012)
- D. Achane 80+ Rush | 20+ Rec
- C. Brown 40+ Rush | 4+ Rec
- A. Jones 50+ Rush | 15+ Rec
0.25U: Round Robin #3 (+1755)
- J. Gibbs 70+ Rush | 30+ Rec | ATD
- C. Stroud 230+ Pass | 2+ TDs
- T. Shough 200+ Pass | 20+ Rush

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@CodyBrownBets Lfg

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NFL Week 16 Full Betting Card🐼

Straight Bets:
1U: L. McConkey o45.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: C. Olave o61.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: M. Brown o3.5 Receptions (+120)
1U: G. Pickens o64.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: D. Singletary o28.5 Rush Yds (-110)
1U: J. Allen u251.5 Pass+Rush (-112)
1U: J. Waddle u53.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
1U: B. Strange o39.5 Rec. Yds (-114)

Ladders:
0.25U: L. McConkey 65+ Yds (+195)
0.25U: L. McConkey 80+ Yds (+380)
0.25U: D. Singletary 40+ Yds (+209)

Parlays and Value Plays:
0.25U: Round Robin #1 (+2240)
- K. Cousins 220+ Pass | 2+ TDs
- J. Burrow 280+ | 2+ TDs
- B. Nix 250+ Pass | 2+ TDs
0.25U: Round Robin #2 (+2012)
- D. Achane 80+ Rush | 20+ Rec
- C. Brown 40+ Rush | 4+ Rec
- A. Jones 50+ Rush | 15+ Rec
0.25U: Round Robin #3 (+1755)
- J. Gibbs 70+ Rush | 30+ Rec | ATD
- C. Stroud 230+ Pass | 2+ TDs
- T. Shough 200+ Pass | 20+ Rush

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@QuentinLocks Love it

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #2🏈

🔒1U: L. McConkey o45.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
🪜0.25U: L. McConkey 65+ Yds (+195)
🪜0.25U: L. McConkey 80+ Yds (+380)
#BoltUp vs #DallasCowboys

▪️Such a disrespectful line for Ladd. In his last 4 games, he is only averaging 21 yards per game. In the 5 games before that, he averaged 83.6 yards per game. His recent skid is largely due to the dip in pass volume with Herbert’s broken hand. In this game, Herbert’s passing projection is back up at 243.5, but this line didn’t adjust. I’ll gladly take my shot on a Ladd bounce back game.

▪️Perfect passing environment. The Chargers are playing the Cowboys in Dallas and will likely be forced to air out the football. Dallas’ run defense has been much improved, but they have been getting torched in the air. They rank dead last in pass yards allowed this season and 28th in yards per reception allowed. They also rank 30th in pass EPA and 28th in completion percentage allowed. This is the perfect spot for the Chargers passing attack to get back on track in a must win game.

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #8🏈

🔒1U: J. Waddle u53.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
#PhinsUp vs #WhoDey

▪️On paper, this matchup may seem like one to attack, but Jaylen Waddle is expected to see shadow coverage from DJ Turner. Of the 11 WRs that Turner has shadowed, only 2 of them have cleared this line all season. According to PFF, he is allowing the 13th fewest yards per reception allowed and ranks 1st in PBUs. Here are some of the WR totals while facing Turner in shadow coverage:
- Z. Flowers: 2 targets, 0 rec, 0 yds
- D. Metcalf: 2 targets, 0 rec, 0 yds
- R. Odunze: 1 target, 0 rec, 0 yds
- D. Metcalf: 3 targets, 1 rec, 39 yds
- R. Doubs: 7 targets, 3 rec, 22 yds
- J. Williams: 0 targets, 0 rec, 0 yds
- C. Sutton: 1 target, 0 rec, 0 yds

▪️Welcome to the Quinn Ewers show. Ewers was a terrible college QB but is especially bad where Jaylen Waddle has made his money. Waddle ranks 99th percentile in splash zone targets, which means 15+ yards over the middle of the field. That is exactly where Ewers struggled at Texas. Despite the soft defense, I do not believe in Ewers as an NFL QB. Expect a lot of Achane today. Great spot for an under.

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #7🏈

🔒1U: J. Allen u251.5 Pass+Rush (-112)
#BillsMafia vs #DawgPound

▪️The Cleveland Browns will not push Josh Allen to put on the superman cape in this matchup. 10.5 point spread with a low 41.5 point total. The Browns’ run defense has also fallen off a cliff. In the last 2 weeks, they are 21st in rush EPA and 15th in rushing success rate allowed. Expect a heavy dose of James Cook. Over the last 3 seasons when Josh Allen has had less than 30 pass attempts, he has gone under this line in 15 of 22 games (68.1%), averaging just 221.4 pass+rush yards per game. His pass attempts line is set at 27.5 here.

▪️Not only will he not see the volume, but this is a pretty tough defense. The Browns have allowed the fewest passing yards on the season and rank 7th in pass EPA. They have also allowed the fewest QB rushing yards. Lastly, both teams rank below average in pace; this will be a slow, ugly, cold game in Cleveland and the Bills should lean on the run.

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #6🏈

🔒1U: D. Singletary o28.5 Yds (-110)
🪜0.25U: D. Singletary 40+ Yds (+209)
#NYGiants vs #Skol

▪️Rookie QB against Brian Flores. What could go wrong? Dart has bad against the blitz, which is not ideal for this matchup as the Vikings rank 1st in blitz rate and 1st in pressure rate. What will the Giants do instead? Run the ball. The Vikings are a run funnel. Opponents have had a 54% pass rate against them, which ranks bottom 5 in the NFL. They rank 5th in pass EPA but 18th in rush EPA. Additionally, Kafka has had a negative PROE in all 4 games, choosing to establish the run early. Minnesota has allowed the 4th fewest pass attempts this season. I expect the Giants to try and run the ball here. Plenty of RBs have crushed in this matchup in recent weeks:
- Williams + Davis : 112 Yards
- Rodriguez + JCM: 84 Yards
- Walker + Charbonnet: 108 Yards
- Wilson + Brooks: 128 Yards
- Swift+ Monangai: 113 Yards

▪️This is an insane overcorrection after this line was 44.5 last week. Tyrone Tracy out carried Singletary 15 to 5, but in the 5 weeks prior, Singletary averaged 11.6 carries per game. If we see that volume, this is an easy smash play. I expect the Giants to keep Jaxson Dart out of harms way and keep the ball on the ground.

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #5🏈

🔒1U: G. Pickens o64.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
#DallasCowboys vs #BoltUp

▪️Buying back in on GP. Pickens has hit this line in 6 of 7 home games, averaging 90 yards per game. This game has a 49.5 point total and I expect this Cowboys offense to find success in the air, despite the tough statistical matchup. The Chargers have allowed the 4th fewest targets to the inline position and the 6th fewest targets to the slot, but they have allowed the 13th most targets to outside WRs. That is where Pickens lines up for 92% of his snaps. Should see a lot of targets in what should be a neutral script.

▪️After 2 quiet games, HC Brian Shottenheimer emphasized the need to get Pickens involved. This week, he said, “You’ll see us move George Pickens around a little bit more. He’s a great talent, we’ve gotta get him going. I think he had one of his best practice days of the year, yesterday — I think that’s important, because that gives you confidence going into the game. He’s been great.” Yes, it’s just coach speak, but this offense is at its best when George Pickens is engaged. I think they make a concerted effort to get Pickens the football, love the spot for a bounce back.

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #4🏈

🔒1U: M. Brown o3.5 Receptions (+120)
#ChiefsKingdom vs #TitanUp

▪️Marquise Brown has hit this line in 5 of 6 games without Rashee Rice who will miss this game with a concussion. Hollywood should see an increase in snap rate, and in games with more than 60% snaps, he has hit this line in 3/3 this season, averaging 6.3 receptions per game. With Gardner Minshew, I expect the Chiefs to dink and dunk their way down the field with short completions. Brown should see some easy ones.

▪️Even without Mahomes, this is still a really solid matchup for the Chiefs passing attack. The Titans are a pass funnel, forcing teams to throw at a league high +2.5% over expectation, with a top 10 rush EPA on defense over the last 4 weeks. Tennessee is also allowing the 3rd highest completion percentage, which lines up well with Minshew keeping the ball near the LOS. Great odds on this bet for Hollywood.

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #3🏈

🔒1U: C. Olave o61.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
#Saints vs #JetUp

▪️Just last week, this Jets defense gave up 330 yards to Trevor Lawrence. Shough comes into this game averaging 236 pass yards over his last 5. The Jets rank 29th in pass EPA and 26th in yards per reception allowed. Brady Cook will struggle in this spot and New Orleans should dominate TOP. Add in the fact that the Saints will be without Devaughn Vele and Devin Neal, which leaves Olave as the only serious weapon to take advantage of this matchup.

▪️Should be a great passing environment. This game is indoors at home for New Orleans and Olave has an impressive 24% TPRR with Shough. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in air yard share and 92nd percentile in target share. In games with Shough with 8+ targets, Olave is over this line in 4 of 5 games, averaging 75.8 yards per game. Love attacking passing props in indoor games around this time of the season. Smash spot for Olave.

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #2🏈

🔒1U: L. McConkey o45.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
🪜0.25U: L. McConkey 65+ Yds (+195)
🪜0.25U: L. McConkey 80+ Yds (+380)
#BoltUp vs #DallasCowboys

▪️Such a disrespectful line for Ladd. In his last 4 games, he is only averaging 21 yards per game. In the 5 games before that, he averaged 83.6 yards per game. His recent skid is largely due to the dip in pass volume with Herbert’s broken hand. In this game, Herbert’s passing projection is back up at 243.5, but this line didn’t adjust. I’ll gladly take my shot on a Ladd bounce back game.

▪️Perfect passing environment. The Chargers are playing the Cowboys in Dallas and will likely be forced to air out the football. Dallas’ run defense has been much improved, but they have been getting torched in the air. They rank dead last in pass yards allowed this season and 28th in yards per reception allowed. They also rank 30th in pass EPA and 28th in completion percentage allowed. This is the perfect spot for the Chargers passing attack to get back on track in a must win game.

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@murraymstrclass Like that a lot too

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop #1🏈

🔒1U: B. Strange o39.5 Rec. Yds (-114)
#DUUUVAL vs #BroncosCountry

▪️Back to back quiet games for Brenton Strange but I expect him to bounce back in this spot. The Jags will be on the road facing the Broncos, who have not been good defending tight ends as of late. Here are a few TE yardage totals in the last 7 weeks:
- L. Musgrave: 52 Yards
- B. Bowers: 46 Yards
- Z. Ertz: 106 Yards
- T. Kelce: 91 Yards
- D. Shultz: 77 Yards
- T. Johnson: 66 Yards

▪️Strange has been Lawrence’s safety valve on the road, hitting this line in 3 of 4 road games, averaging 50 yards per game. He also has a strong 2.11 yards against man coverage, which the Broncos run at a top 5 rate. With Pat Surtain and Riley Moss likely on Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr., I expect a lot of easy targets over the middle of the field for Brenton Strange. This is a great spot for him.

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