Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk

Ex-Senior Professional Staff Member, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee|nuclear nonproliferation policy expert|Jayhawk who'd rather be reading Bulgakov.

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

We overestimated Russia.
We underestimated Ukraine.
For Russia, every day without victory is defeat.
For Ukraine, every day without defeat is victory.

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

Far more thought to give Russian nuclear exercises from October 2024 and last month than some propaganda kook-fest with juicy barbs and bobbles up north. Thoughts coming, soon.

[Lucy Fisher @LOS_Fisher]

PM is expected to announce around £15bn extra for defence (to 2030) in DIP, a compromise option between the Treasury push for a maximum of £12bn and MoD push for a floor of £18bn

Plan is not yet finalised, but £15bn would fall far short of current £28bn MoD funding gap to 2030

[Anthony Adragna @AnthonyAdragna]

🚨 NEWS: The House has **passed** a war powers resolution to rein in President Donald Trump over the war in Iran.

Four Republicans vote with Democrats to pass it: Davidson, Massie, Barrett and Fitzpatrick.

The vote was 215 to 208.

[Rebeccah Heinrichs @RLHeinrichs]

Helpful exchange on Iran between @RepBaumgartner and @SecRubio on whether the admin is concerned with only 60% enriched uranium or also the significant amounts of 20% enriched uranium. (Rubio makes it clear he/they mean 20% as well.)

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

@Ami_Marisol Everybody gotta eat.

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

@Ami_Marisol Can I frame “Lobbybotomized” for my wall?

[Air & Space Forces Magazine @ASForcesMag]

The facility will house a digital-centric production line for the Next Generation Interceptor that company officials say can be expanded and reconfigured based on Pentagon demand.
MORE: https://t.co/kzqkfhOybO
#SpaceForce #Guardian

[National Security Division, U.S. Dept of Justice @DOJNatSec]

CEO of Iran Tech Company Arrested on Federal Charge of Supplying U.S. Equipment to Iran’s Nuclear and Military Establishment

“As alleged, Ghomi enriched himself by supplying U.S. technology to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and other sanctioned entities responsible for the Iran’s nuclear program,” said Assistant Attorney General John A. Eisenberg. “The National Security Division will hold accountable those who violate our laws to further Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

Ghomi funded the construction of his Orange County, California, mansion with the proceeds of his sanctions-evasion scheme.

Read more: https://t.co/oZvIUwPPOG

[National Security Division, U.S. Dept of Justice @DOJNatSec]

ICYMI: Jonathan Loadholt, 37, of Staten Island, New York, was sentenced yesterday to 10 years in prison for his participation in a plot directed by the Government of Iran targeting Masih Alinejad, a journalist, author, and human rights activist.

“Tehran attempted to murder a U.S. journalist in the United States simply because she exposed a few of that regime’s many abuses,” said Assistant Attorney General John A. Eisenberg. “The defendant now stands convicted and sentenced to a lengthy prison sentence for his role in this plot. The Department and its colleagues will work tirelessly to protect Americans and to seek justice when our laws are broken.”

🔗: https://t.co/NSg6k1Qblx

[U.S. Department of Justice @TheJusticeDept]

🚨 Iraqi National Arrested and Charged with Providing Material Support to Iranian-Backed Terrorist Organizations and Directing Attacks Targeting U.S. Citizens and Interests

“Thanks to the dedication and vigilance of law enforcement, this alleged terrorist commander is now in U.S. custody,” said Acting Attorney General @DAGToddBlanche. “As alleged in the complaint, Al-Saadi directed and urged others to attack U.S. and Israeli interests and to kill Americans and Jews in the U.S. and abroad, and in doing so advance the terrorist goals of Kata’ib Hizballah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. These charges show American law enforcement will never let such evil go unchecked and will use all tools to disrupt and dismantle foreign terrorist organizations and their leaders.”

🔗: https://t.co/SYQMr39lWg

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

Russian Z-blogger Golman gives feedback on the Forum in St Petersburg:

"What kind of economy are you even gathered there to talk about? We need reforms! We can only sell oil, gas, and timber! That's it! What do the Chinese even give us? Fiber optic cable - and even that's garbage! They've already taken over everything in Siberia."

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

Now for the hard part.

[Rebeccah Heinrichs @RLHeinrichs]

The weaponization work has been destroyed. The top Iranian scientists with the know-how are dead. The U.S. and Israel can operate pretty much uninhibited in Iranian airspace. Iran is not in a better place to develop a credible nuclear weapon. Obviously.

[Air & Space Forces Magazine @ASForcesMag]

The service is working on the issue, with plans to spend more than half a billion dollars through 2031 on the LASS program.
MORE: https://t.co/9RTqcHBSqo
#AirForce #Airman

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

@lizardmech This is what export control reform was meant for, I thought.

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

A gov to gov agreement with one country cuts the US regulations process, but retransfers can be messy, along with attacks on production there, so do it here or in a third country, even better. We can tolerate the risk if our politicians are ready.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

We raised it with the previous U.S. Administration, and we continue to discuss it with the current one – namely, providing Ukraine with licenses to produce such systems, Patriot systems. And it's not only about Ukraine – it's to all the Europeans who have such capabilities to start and to produce it massively.

Current Patriot production capacity is simply not enough to meet all the existing and potential threats around the world.

Ukraine has already shown, across many types of weapons and especially in drones, that we can move fast and produce modern systems at scale. So I ask for your support at the political level to help achieve positive decisions on these licenses as well.

From an address to the participants of the NATO–Ukraine Council meeting in Kyiv (5/5).

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

@lizardmech Industry seeks MLAs. Higher than industry sits government. How we make it and where could be facilitated by the first MLA, while negotiating a gov to gov agreement.

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

Sad news. Rest in peace, C.

[Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson]

In these globally turbulent times one man has regularly acted as a wise, thoughtful and witty guide for listeners of @BBCr4today. The former Head of MI6 Sir Alex Younger has analysed, explained and contextualised the actions of Trump, Putin, Xi and the Ayatollahs. After he first appeared in the programme I was lucky enough to get to know Alex and call him my friend. I’m desperately sad to hear the news I’ve long feared was coming. Alex has died after months trying to cheat the
prognosis he was given whe. They discovered the tumour he nicknamed “Putin”.
We’re always told not to speak of a fight with cancer because it risks implying that only those strong enough survive. I understand that. I really do but sod it. Alex fought so hard to find a treatment to give him a little longer to be with Sarah and their lovely children. And he used every last minute of the short time he did have to be with family and friends and to do what he spent a lifetime in the shadows doing - using his intelligence to understand the world, to explain it but, above all, to keep us all safe.

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

Congress could help, too, @RepDonBacon!

[Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk @PaperMissiles]

I truly see fewer downsides to third-country cooperation, and if can slap dash minerals but leave this to the ether, I really don’t understand it.