@ListerRod@PhilSmith26 I agree with that. That’s how markets should work though. This is what we lost when the central banks moved towards a policy of permanent QE through swap lines. Now governments have to compete for the cash.
Bond markets look reasonably orderly. They’re pricing term premium and geopolitical risk while the map gets redrawn. That’s a real signal.
A 5-handle on the 10-year is not a default price. It closed Friday at 5.28%. Five-year US CDS is about 37bp. That’s the market charging for duration and politics, not refusing to own the paper.
If the claim is that bonds eventually force the US and the G7 to slow the growth of the welfare state so the debt stock stops compounding, I’m with you. Default is a different claim, and it’s absurd. The dollar is still the reserve currency. IMF reserves were 57% dollars in Q2. Slow erosion is not a change of regime.
Well, I don’t think bond markets care about his past career. I think his industrial agenda will likely bring prosperity to Canada more than Europe. Because where else are our resources going to go? Europe doesn’t have the industry to be a reliable customer. Canadian bonds are gaining relative to EU, because of geography. The market knows that Elbows up is a phase. Canada will be prosperous. Because we’re neighbors with the USA. Pay attention to the ai spend. It’s also affecting bond markets.
Thanks for the clairiification. I have a hard time believing that the current repricing of bonds benefits Canada’s position relative to the USA in the long run. There’s a lot going on in bond markets. But if the market thinks Canada is safer than America for fix income investment, it’s either calling a bluff on Carney’s elbows up or CAD is being repriced for a resource boom.
From what I see - STRC is 80% retail.
Yet, @saylor is intensely focused on Institutional adoption of Bitcoin backed digital credit.
Therefore there’s a dark horse amongst the $MSTR pref credit curve which is where institutional capital will be coming into.
It won’t become clear until that capital is ready and flowing - because once that permanent capital starts coming in - it won’t move - so MSTR probably wants to keep that card close to its chest.
@real_vijay The bond doomers are wrong. Bonds will recover in under 12 months. And the Fed won’t be the ones rescuing this time. Warsh is going to be selective on swap lines for g7. We will see that reflected in bond markets but that doesn’t mean yeilds are elevated forever.