Beni Maltes

[Beni Maltes @PapitoLlamas]

@Newsforce @grok did they survive?

[Alejandro Jodorowsky @alejodorowsky]

Alcanzamos la plenitud de nuestra fuerza cuando aprendemos a no dañar.

[Bloomberg @business]

Bolivia’s new president vowed to bring prosperity to the poor, lithium-rich country. But when @DavidGura traveled to La Paz, he found protesters demanding his ouster. Listen to the Big Take podcast. https://t.co/bhZpDdbQZU

[Gato Encerrado @gatoencerrado2]

Petroperú: Proponen que fideicomiso de los US$ 2,000 millones los maneje Cofide y no ProInversión.

https://t.co/9N5Xuj7hHe

[Beni Maltes @PapitoLlamas]

@JonErlichman Igualito!

[Beni Maltes @PapitoLlamas]

@ZoeGutier @4n4lisis Perderse dar a luz es una pena. Perderse ser Madre es una profunda pena.
El exito, el dinero y el poder son inventos ligados a lo terrenal.
Lo de la tierra se queda en la tierra.
El ser Madre esta ligado al espiritu.

Lo espiritual es eterno.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Since the start of the Iran war...
Sulfur: +57%
Jet Fuel: +52%
Urea: +51%
Diesel: +48%
Gasoline: +36%
Fertilizer: +35%
Heating Oil: +32%
WTI Crude Oil: +28%
Brent Crude Oil: +26%
European Natural Gas: +21%
Coal: +12%
Palm Oil: +10%
Iron Ore: +8%
Rice: +7%
S&P 500: +4%
$VIX: -12%

[Pablo Secada @psecadae]

Como el peruano

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Next: the US announces a blockade of the Houthi blockade of the US blockade of the Iranian blockade.

[𝑨𝒓𝒕 🎨 @_ArtMuseum]

Holding Hands through History

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Some get hopeful on the Iraq crude exception news. Don’t. This is the fog of war. Nothing less and as explained below.

Same story with the “free passage of 20 Pakistani tankers”. A fleet Pakistan doesn’t posses, on voyages that will likely never happen.

What matters is not a one-off negotiated transit, a ballast move, or a PR “deal” with a few crooks and kickbacks.

What matters is when OECD+China commercial decision-makers, the big boys, the people who actually move 90% of global cargo and 98% of global GDP, deem the Strait safe again for normal traffic. Roughly 150 vessels per day, bidirectional, across crude, products, LNG, chemicals, dry bulk, the lot.

Until that threshold is met, nothing is fixed. Don’t even expect the CCP to cut short-term “deals”. They won’t. They think long term. The UAE & Saudis? They think in generations and will not negotiate with terrorists. Not happening.

Yes, the rate of change matters. But the signal has to carry institutional weight. Bilateral agreements are possible. But they will require time and brains to be fleshed out. Think the Government of Japan confirming a durable arrangement with Iran, backed by the buy side and actual logistics on the ground.

But for such a massive diversion from 75 years of Pax Americana to be agreed by the big boys, we will require a LOT more economic pain than 4 weeks of $100+ oil and three flights cancelled in Timbuktu. Are u kidding me? We need a good old fashioned and painful recession. A hard landing.

Treating thin Iraq exception headlines in the middle of a dicy U.S. rescue missions, military strikes, and a presidential deadline as a possible market inflection point is amateur hour.

[VBL’s Ghost @Sorenthek]

'Faith Birol, head of the International Energy Agency: “We have lost 11 million barrels per day – more than the two major oil shocks of the 1970s put together.” I’m old enough to remember the 1970s and it was not a good time for U.S. consumers or stock and bond investors, but investors in energy and gold did quite well.'

-@htsfhickey's latest

[Nakul Sarda @nakul_sarda]

I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead.

We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal.

But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this.

So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie.

1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz

This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that.

2. How many ships are actually crossing

Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100+. Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker.

3. Paper oil vs real oil

This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number.

4. The mid-April cliff

Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory.

Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.

[Rony @Ronycoder]

Instead of watching Netflix for 2 hours, watch this guy explain why some people become successful while others stay average.

[RAMZPAUL @ramzpaul]

Iran will not open the Stair of Hormuz within the 48 hour deadline. If Trump does not attack the Iranian infrastructure, he will look like a weak bitch. If he does attack, the world burns.

4D chess.

[Arnaud T @sceniuslatam]

Citi sees Latin America as one of the main winners of the “great trade realignment”

A new Citi report positions Latin America as one of the main winners of what it calls the “great trade realignment”, as global supply chains shift toward a more multipolar structure driven by tariff volatility, AI adoption and nearshoring trends.

Trade flows from Latin America to ASEAN countries surged 82% between 2019 and 2024, while exports from China to the region grew 59% over the same period.

Latin America’s exports to North America also rose 43% in the same period.

Citi highlights the region’s growing role as a vital supplier of critical minerals to Asia’s electronics industry, an agricultural alternative to the United States for products like soybeans, and an increasingly attractive destination for foreign direct investment, which grew 12% in the first half of 2025 against a negative trend in other developed economies.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The Chinese foreign minister has been on the phone with his Iranian counterpart.

Who buys more Qatari LNG than anyone else? China.

Who buys more Persian Gulf oil than anyone else? China.

Who buys all -- yes, all -- the Iranian oil? China

[Beni Maltes @PapitoLlamas]

@ElSecreDeEuge Secretario. Es segun como se mire, o culo del Asia o cabeza del Africa!

“Yo soy aquel negrito del Africa tropical que cultivando cantaba la cancion del cola-cao. Es el el cola-cao desayuno y merienda!” 🎶🎵🎶🎵

[Animetrends @AnimetrendsLA]

Hace 40 Años se estrenaba en
Japón el clásico, DRAGON BALL.

El ending "Romantic Ageruyo"
es una joya... ✨