ParabolicEdge

Crypto Cycle Analyst (Ex. NYC Hedge Fund Investor @ $5Bn L/S fund) | Views on Macro, Crypto, TradFi | Not Financial Advice. These are our own personal opinions.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

What can cause the market to crash 70%+? I've been thinking more and more about this question as almost nobody, except @DaveHcontrarian, thinks it's a possibility.

Important thread⬇️for anyone invested in $BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ #FANG or any other risk asset.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Signs for this latest crypto collapse were clear as day... Should have been patient. We will be patient until signals indicate the bottom is in and buy with size.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Cycle bottom is not in yet. Macro conditions are tightening. Stagflationary pressures will continue to rise throughout this year as oil prices flow through the supply chain.

Once the the market finally starts to bake in stagflationary pressure and the Fed starts printing/cutting, then we can start thinking about calling the bottom.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

If you aren't following this account, NGMI. You'll miss out timing the crypto bottom for the next bull run. $BTC $ETH $SOL

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Crypto bottom is not in. Liquidity is tightening.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

@BowTiedBull Sure if you want to be a full-time teacher then go ahead. Rather outsource good education for kids to an amazing private school, then can spend your own time grossing up more income.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

@BowTiedBull 2-3 kids private school, $100 to $150K a year adds up.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Difference between the large banks and the regionals. RWA growth and valuations very muted at the regionals, plus underearning balance sheets from fixed rate investments in 20/21z

Plus the regionals get almost ~8% benefit on avg to capital from the new proposed regulations boosting CET1.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Sarcasim at its finest😂The issue with BTC is now it has tail risk and the community isn't aligned on how to solve the issue of quantum risk.

Contrast that with ETH's roadmap tackling the issue head on.

[nicolas, 30 ans @nic_carter]

excellent points. I am no longer concerned about quantum thanks to this thorough debunking

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

He’s given up his short already. Good decision as ETH could very well rerate massively this cycle.

SoV reserve asset that has yet to be recognized as such.
https://t.co/Ggp5Y0yKO8

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

going to cut eth short & buy asteroid in solidarity to atone for my sins

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Sentiment like this signals we are getting close to bottoming soon.

Most of CT is filled with momentum traders like this guy. All crypto OGs pivoting to AI cause that’s what worked recently.

People need to study history and see that it’s very common for certain assets to go nowhere in price for 5-10 years then all the sudden rerate.

$GLD and a lot of Semiconductor stocks are just a few examples, so don’t write off assets like crypto as if they are dead forever just because relative price performance has not worked.

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

last chance to sell eth over $2200

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

@BowTiedBull Share the same view. People like @blknoiz06 and some crypto OGs are all giving up on crypto and pivoting to AI, declaring crypto dead because relative price action hasn't been great this past cycle
https://t.co/aADxPPZe5m

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Sentiment like this signals we are getting close to bottoming soon.

Most of CT is filled with momentum traders like this guy. All crypto OGs pivoting to AI cause that’s what worked recently.

People need to study history and see that it’s very common for certain assets to go nowhere in price for 5-10 years then all the sudden rerate.

$GLD and a lot of Semiconductor stocks are just a few examples, so don’t write off assets like crypto as if they are dead forever just because relative price performance has not worked.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

OpenAI already missing its own targets and questioning its "massive datacenter spend"
https://t.co/rrNxB19QFT

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

LLM's have no moat. Every day a new competitor pops up offering the same thing.

How can @claudeai @ChatGPTapp be worth $1 Trillion today when these LLMs are essentially commodity businesses? 🤔
@gamesblazer06

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[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Inflations accelerating… and market doesn’t care (yet) about the risk of financial conditions tightening.

[PlungeProtectionTeam @gamesblazer06]

Nothing to see here….

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

Sure, I could be wrong of course... I place bets in assets that are hated/underappreciated with a thesis that most don't agree with and hope overtime that the market sees what I see.

TradFi has barely allocated to the crypto ecosystem, Genius act jut passed last year, Clarity act hopefully will pass soon. Ecosystem is still in its early days.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

This is a great overview of the Store of Value thesis in ETH that is not currently priced in today.

[Etherealize @Etherealize_io]

https://t.co/QDMLH4aSMF

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

ETH has 0-1% inflation each year and a sustainable security mechanism long term that issues new tokens to stakers and burns tokens based on trx activity.

BTC will face security budget in 2 halvenings if the price doesn’t keep going up as little fees are generated from trx activity.

Then add the quantum risk, ETH has a roadmap while it’s harder for BTC community to agree on what to do.

And lastly you can buy ETH at <20% of BTCs market cap and if right on SoV thesis the upside is immense.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

ETH has 0-1% inflation each year and a sustainable security mechanism long term that issues new tokens to stakers and burns tokens based on trx activity.

BTC will face security budget in 2 halvenings if the price doesn’t keep going up as little fees are generated from trx activity.

Then add the quantum risk, ETH has a roadmap while it’s harder for BTC community to agree on what to do.

And lastly you can buy ETH at <20% of BTCs market cap and if right on SoV thesis the upside is immense.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

@DPGSpurs @theempirepod @LoganJastremski Can argue the same thing happened to BTC when nobody was using it for payments.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

@DPGSpurs @theempirepod @LoganJastremski Disagree. ETH has all the SoV properties that BTC does and arguably better/more sustainable SoV properties.

There are many SoV assets in this world, nobody can say with certainty that BTC will be the only one in the crypto ecosystem.

[ParabolicEdge @ParabolicEdge]

@DPGSpurs @theempirepod @LoganJastremski We will see in 5 years, right now ETH is not valued as a SoV, so the upside is very high if it ends up being one.

BTCs narrative wasn’t a SoV previously, it was a peer to peer payments network. Thesis and use cases evolve overtime.