Parth

I do Weather Forecasting , Share iphone leaks and my opinions on AI.

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

New Study:
The "cold blob" SE of Greenland is growing, a key sign that AMOC is slowing

For #India, this could mean a weaker Indian Summer #Monsoon: less overall rainfall, more dry spells & floods, & risks to agriculture for 600M+ people

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

@FerozShaik46988 Yeahhh🙂😂

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
The heat + humidity is unbearable.

Humidity has caused Real Feel temperature to be 40°C+🌡️

The body is struggling to cool down & Air feels heavy

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

@tan_5989 Oh... didn't see BharatFS. But most of the models showing low rainfall over North Konkan, from their past 1 week run

And yeah, model variability is very high this time ...

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
There aren't many Pre Monsoon showers🌧️

Starting only June 8 we will get short Showers.

Then again after 10th June no major activity, arrival also seems to be weak
#MumbaiRains

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

🌧️Welcome Monsoon 2026 to India🌧️

SW #Monsoon has officially made onset over #Kerala Today on 4th June against Normal date of June 1(said in my earlier forecast)

SW Monsoon will have some rapid advancements post 9th June,

#Mumbai onset stays on track as said i.e June 13-15th

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Monsoon at Doorstep

Yesterday, at least 9 of the 14 key stations over #Kerala crossed 2.5 mm
Today’s numbers will confirm 2-day streak

•Mild westerlies at 600 hPa(To strengthen by 6th)
•Solid flow at 850 hPa & 925 hPa

Conditions are highly favourable for arrival today/tom

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Monsoon at Doorstep

Yesterday, at least 9 of the 14 key stations over #Kerala crossed 2.5 mm
Today’s numbers will confirm 2-day streak

•Mild westerlies at 600 hPa(To strengthen by 6th)
•Solid flow at 850 hPa & 925 hPa

Conditions are highly favourable for arrival today/tom

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Monsoon at Doorstep

Yesterday, at least 9 of the 14 key stations over #Kerala crossed 2.5 mm
Today’s numbers will confirm 2-day streak

•Mild westerlies at 600 hPa(To strengthen by 6th)
•Solid flow at 850 hPa & 925 hPa

Conditions are highly favourable for arrival today/tom

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
#Nowcast🌧️

System heading towards #SoBo and south Western Suburbs.

Rain possible in next 30 mins over South Mumbai

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
As said, Short heavy spells🌧️ reported over Western suburbs, central & some Eastern as well
#MumbaiRains

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
As forecasted about June 3, here we are with Pre Monsoon activities with major over #Vasai #Virar

Slowly building over Western & Central Suburbs (moving towards East) and some over #SoBo
#MumbaiRains

[Rickeey @rickeeyssaini09]

@Parth_GPT Serious rains in juhu-vile parle west

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
Pre Monsoon activity is here as forecasted about June 3, against IMDs official forecast.
#MumbaiRains

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

@Bhargav79100514 @richapintoi Yeah true...don't know what model they use ....rain and thunder activity seems to be from June 3 (June 2 midnight). Tomorrow seems to be dry

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
As forecasted about June 3, here we are with Pre Monsoon activities with major over #Vasai #Virar

Slowly building over Western & Central Suburbs (moving towards East) and some over #SoBo
#MumbaiRains

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
From June 1(early Morning) - June 3 we might see some Pre Monsoon activities.

Then again no major activity till #Monsoon arrives, which might happen on June 13th.

[nifty @ShankarPil85486]

@Parth_GPT raining moderately heavy in vasai

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

Woahhh...wait what ? Nino 3.4 index, 3.5+°C ⚠️🚨

Highest is 2.49°C in November 2015

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Hello?
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me
Is there anyone at home?

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

@Bhargav79100514 @richapintoi Yeah true...don't know what model they use ....rain and thunder activity seems to be from June 3 (June 2 midnight). Tomorrow seems to be dry

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

The "Smoothing" Catch-22:

Because many AI models are trained on MSE loss function, they mathematically penalize extreme outliers

At short ranges,model "plays it safe" by smoothing out intense precipitation spikes into a broader, lighter average
This changes how I forecast rains

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

Personal Analysis:
Fascinating pattern emerging with AI weather models(EC-AIFS)for #Mumbai

They accurately flag rain events 7–10 days out, but "back off" or smooth out totals as date nears, only for that initial scenario to actually materialize Why the late-stage fading?
👇🏻1/3

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

Synoptic vs Mesoscale Dynamics

AI models are good at identifying large-scale synoptic setups early (offshore troughs, LP systems in Bay)
However, as Day 0 approaches, they struggle with fine-scale, mesoscale land-atmosphere interactions over Mumbai
(2/3)

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

@newfangled_jay Not spreading negativity just saying what I can see.

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai
#Monsoon seems to be either delayed or a very Weak Arrival for Northern Part of West Coast including Mumbai.

There isn't major rain activity for Mumbai & surroundings after June 10 at least till 20th June.

Arabian sea doesn't seem to be supporting well 🥲
#elniño

[Parth @Parth_GPT]

#Mumbai got its first Pre Monsoon shower 🌧️today:

(In mm)
Chembur 33
Kurla 11
VileParle 9
Santacruz 8.5
Ghatkopar 8
Bandra 5
Vikhroli 4.5
Borivali-Kandivali 4
Goregaon, Powai 3
Dadar Thane 2

As said, this will continue from June 3-June10