New Study:
The "cold blob" SE of Greenland is growing, a key sign that AMOC is slowing
For #India, this could mean a weaker Indian Summer #Monsoon: less overall rainfall, more dry spells & floods, & risks to agriculture for 600M+ people
#Mumbai
The heat + humidity is unbearable.
Humidity has caused Real Feel temperature to be 40°C+🌡️
The body is struggling to cool down & Air feels heavy
@tan_5989 Oh... didn't see BharatFS. But most of the models showing low rainfall over North Konkan, from their past 1 week run
And yeah, model variability is very high this time ...
#Mumbai
There aren't many Pre Monsoon showers🌧️
Starting only June 8 we will get short Showers.
Then again after 10th June no major activity, arrival also seems to be weak
#MumbaiRains
🌧️Welcome Monsoon 2026 to India🌧️
SW #Monsoon has officially made onset over #Kerala Today on 4th June against Normal date of June 1(said in my earlier forecast)
SW Monsoon will have some rapid advancements post 9th June,
#Mumbai onset stays on track as said i.e June 13-15th
#Monsoon at Doorstep
Yesterday, at least 9 of the 14 key stations over #Kerala crossed 2.5 mm
Today’s numbers will confirm 2-day streak
•Mild westerlies at 600 hPa(To strengthen by 6th)
•Solid flow at 850 hPa & 925 hPa
Conditions are highly favourable for arrival today/tom
#Monsoon at Doorstep
Yesterday, at least 9 of the 14 key stations over #Kerala crossed 2.5 mm
Today’s numbers will confirm 2-day streak
•Mild westerlies at 600 hPa(To strengthen by 6th)
•Solid flow at 850 hPa & 925 hPa
Conditions are highly favourable for arrival today/tom
#Monsoon at Doorstep
Yesterday, at least 9 of the 14 key stations over #Kerala crossed 2.5 mm
Today’s numbers will confirm 2-day streak
•Mild westerlies at 600 hPa(To strengthen by 6th)
•Solid flow at 850 hPa & 925 hPa
Conditions are highly favourable for arrival today/tom
#Mumbai
As forecasted about June 3, here we are with Pre Monsoon activities with major over #Vasai#Virar
Slowly building over Western & Central Suburbs (moving towards East) and some over #SoBo#MumbaiRains
@Bhargav79100514@richapintoi Yeah true...don't know what model they use ....rain and thunder activity seems to be from June 3 (June 2 midnight). Tomorrow seems to be dry
#Mumbai
As forecasted about June 3, here we are with Pre Monsoon activities with major over #Vasai#Virar
Slowly building over Western & Central Suburbs (moving towards East) and some over #SoBo#MumbaiRains
#Mumbai
From June 1(early Morning) - June 3 we might see some Pre Monsoon activities.
Then again no major activity till #Monsoon arrives, which might happen on June 13th.
@Bhargav79100514@richapintoi Yeah true...don't know what model they use ....rain and thunder activity seems to be from June 3 (June 2 midnight). Tomorrow seems to be dry
The "Smoothing" Catch-22:
Because many AI models are trained on MSE loss function, they mathematically penalize extreme outliers
At short ranges,model "plays it safe" by smoothing out intense precipitation spikes into a broader, lighter average
This changes how I forecast rains
Personal Analysis:
Fascinating pattern emerging with AI weather models(EC-AIFS)for #Mumbai
They accurately flag rain events 7–10 days out, but "back off" or smooth out totals as date nears, only for that initial scenario to actually materialize Why the late-stage fading?
👇🏻1/3
Synoptic vs Mesoscale Dynamics
AI models are good at identifying large-scale synoptic setups early (offshore troughs, LP systems in Bay)
However, as Day 0 approaches, they struggle with fine-scale, mesoscale land-atmosphere interactions over Mumbai
(2/3)
#Mumbai#Monsoon seems to be either delayed or a very Weak Arrival for Northern Part of West Coast including Mumbai.
There isn't major rain activity for Mumbai & surroundings after June 10 at least till 20th June.
Arabian sea doesn't seem to be supporting well 🥲
#elniño
#Mumbai got its first Pre Monsoon shower 🌧️today:
(In mm)
Chembur 33
Kurla 11
VileParle 9
Santacruz 8.5
Ghatkopar 8
Bandra 5
Vikhroli 4.5
Borivali-Kandivali 4
Goregaon, Powai 3
Dadar Thane 2
As said, this will continue from June 3-June10