Sense Partners

Economic consultancy working on all of today's big challenges. Collectively partial to craft beers, long blacks and cheese.

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

Some initial thoughts on risks to NZ from Trump's latest tariff scheme ⬇️⬇️⬇️

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

NZ is named amongst 60 countries to be investigated. More tariff uncertainty awaits. Sigh.

But it's a big [yuuuge] stretch to say NZ's lack of a ban on forced labour imports burdens or restricts US commerce in any material sense.

Here's why (non-legal take)... brief🧵

1/5

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

ICYMI some India FTA hot takes to go with your morning ☕️ from @JohnBallingall

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

Some initial thoughts on the New Zealand-India FTA 🧵🧵🧵
TL;DR this should be a welcome Xmas present for many NZ exporters, though a big bah humbug for dairy and beef. Gains will be long term, not immediate. 1/12

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

@JohnBallingall explores what Trump's reciprocal tariffs concept looks like for NZ, and what deal 🏌️⛳️ might be struck to minimise the potential pain. 🧵⬇️ and paper here: https://t.co/w8h47qjmDX

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

What might President Trump’s reciprocal tariff idea mean for NZ?
Ideally nothing at all, as our average tariff rate on US imports (1.8%) is less than half that of the US’s tariff on NZ exports (4.2%). We’re really not the target here.

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

Some musings from our @JohnBallingall after spending a week in DC talking Trump and tariffs.

[Newsroom @NewsroomNZ]

Today from The Detail: New Zealand isn't the target of Trump's tariff threats, but might just be collateral damage in a global economic war https://t.co/zR1yhUh2wk

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

Some initial trade reckons from our @JohnBallingall ICYMI

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

20% tariff on $8.8bn NZ exports to US is $1.76bn of duties that US consumers or NZ exporters might bear if Trump follows through on his threats.

In reality there will be some trade diversion as NZ goods exporters seek out other markets. And higher prices will reduce US demand.

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

Now the EU and UK FTAs are done, what’s next for NZ’s trade policy? @JohnBallingall and @theothermunk have been pondering. https://t.co/pZjWaH11QJ

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

🚨New paper alert🚨

NZ’s last comprehensive trade strategy was released in 1993. It was a banger tbf. We @PartnersSense think it’s high time for a new one.

Today we’ve released a discussion paper on the future of NZ's trade policy https://t.co/NegTnvziyR Key points 🧵: 1/13

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

ICYMI some interesting analysis from @JohnBallingall on why most Kiwi firms are thinking about export market diversification but not many are actually doing it. Full report here: https://t.co/pCiiDCUCZz

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

There's much talk about how Kiwi exporters should be preparing for trade disruptions. To inform this discussion, we surveyed almost 100 firms on behalf of the Ministerial Strategic Advisory Group on Trade. The report has just been released. Some key findings and a few charts...🧵

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

A few reckons on NZ - India trade from our @JohnBallingall in this piece by @dileepa_fonseka

[BusinessDesk_NZ @businessdesk_nz]

NZ has been transactional in its approach to India, laser-focused on trade but unwilling to discuss issues of priority like the mobility of people across borders. @dileepa_fonseka takes a closer look. https://t.co/3ouv50hydB

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

We’re on the lookout for new colleagues at @PartnersSense as our consulting business expands. Great opportunity to work on the big economic issues of the day. Flick us a DM if you’re interested or find our emails at https://t.co/zAgYhl4MnN - we’d love to hear from you!

[Nine Lions @KirdanLees]

Sense Partners is hiring! Next year is looking super busy with lots of policy challenges on the horizon come election year, climate change policy ramping up and resource management reform making for a heady mix of work across central and local government.

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

A few thoughts from @JohnBallingall on whether men and women are treated equally by NZ’s remaining tariffs 🧵

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

Is NZ's trade policy sexist? Intrigued by https://t.co/Xrbe40TKwl I took a quick look at how much tariff duty is collected on imports of men's and women's clothing and footwear (C&F).

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

@ASchoultz Your employment contract clearly states all puns delivered during school holidays are made at the punner’s risk of non-mirth due to the likely absence of key pun-loving colleagues. Sorry we don’t make the rules (oh wait, yeah we do).

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

@ASchoultz Hard to imagine your utility could be anything other than maximised spending a wonderful, productive day with your colleagues. We need to talk.

[Matthew O'Meagher @MatthewOMeagher]

We’re justifiably proud of this business programme. The exporters in our first cohort loved it, & the speakers were outstanding. So sign up if you’re intrigued by the findings of our new @PartnersSense report on NZ trade with LatAm — you’ll find it at https://t.co/9DmIQLeCOw

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

Proud of our colleague Hannah Ouellet for making her media debut tonight on 1 News 🙌✅ https://t.co/eMyxjW7EVl

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

Great working on this report for MFAT @theothermunk @JohnBallingall

➡️We found >2.5m NTMs globally, covering >78% of trade.

➡️Cost of compliance ~NZ$2.4 trillion.

➡️NTMs on NZ exports cost >NZ$12 billion p.a. 😳

➡️On average, each NZ product faces 9 NTMs.

[New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade @MFATNZ]

Learn more about the potential impacts, trends and effects of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on exports from Aotearoa New Zealand in our new report ➡ https://t.co/9P0gb54GNX

Sign up to receive free weekly market intelligence report updates ➡ https://t.co/YVGd7EkRew

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

@rosiejcollins Sense Partners: Wellington, Auckland, London. Has a nice ring to it.

Globalisation isn’t dead, it’s just wearing comfortable working clothes.

[Nine Lions @KirdanLees]

Sense Partners' uncertainty index shows uncertainty is about 25 percent higher than normal. COVID is waning but the impact of the war in Ukraine is testing the resilience of New Zealand firms. Expect weaker investment and lower activity. Read the note here:https://t.co/z6DGZE9r8l

[NZ China Council @nzchinacouncil]

Our report “In Perspective: The New Zealand-China Trade and Business Relationship 2022 Update” provides a fact base for discussion on NZ/China trade. Check out the report here https://t.co/R57vekDz14
@JohnBallingall @NZTEnews @TradeWorksNZ @StephenJacobi

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

Great to hear ⁦@rosiejcollins⁩ dropping some truth 💣 on fuel prices, bloody boomers and their car addiction, and the “crap way” we use our welfare system 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/41VDRrbQqo

[Sense Partners @PartnersSense]

Trade policy is one of @PartnersSense’s priority areas so we are proud to have completed this work for the @NZUSCouncil @JohnBallingall @ASchoultz 🇺🇸🇳🇿💪

[NZUS Council @NZUSCouncil]

Read our jointly commissioned (with @MFATNZ) research, written by @JohnBallingall, providing the latest snapshot of the NZ - US trade and economic relationship. 3 key words: diverse, innovative, and transformative. Find it here: https://t.co/It1WMTerRm