Rangers @ Rays Game 2 Model Distributions:
Model is pretty much dead on w books on this one. I have fair price at Rays -140, so no value on either ML side.
Taking a small position on Under 8 total runs (-115). Game went under 8 runs in 61% of simulations.
Simulated distribution of outcomes: Rangers vs. Rays
Model expects TEX to struggle against Glasnow. Rangers score 2 or fewer runs in >50% of simulated games.
Rays should find success against Jordan Montgomery. Serious potential for an offensive explosion.
Fair value Rays -230
Simulated distribution of outcomes: Blue Jays @ Twins
This should be a tight, low-scoring game. Gausman is a worse matchup for Twins than Lopez is for Blue Jays. Model gives Jays slight edge in mode outcome, and in probability of offensive explosion.
Fair price TOR -120
@BettingPros readers cash the Primetime SGP for the second straight night!
Bucs ML (-185)
Olave 65+ Yards (+105)
Both Teams U14.5 First Half (-200)
Parlay Odds: +400
Stay tuned for this Thursday’s parlay!
https://t.co/XXz4QJD4yU
Last six published Any Time TD plays (solo or parlay legs):
Josh Palmer +250 💰
Jerick McKinnon +360 💰
Allen Lazard +210 💰
Diontae Johnson +230 ❌
David Njoku +470 💰
Melvin Gordon +180 💰
Will be back for Dolphins/Bengals TNF next week 👀
My @BettingPros article on TD Props for tonight’s Steelers/Browns matchup - plenty of value here, even in what will likely be a low scoring game.
https://t.co/8GiHUPnRxL
Price movements since this article dropped last week:
Guardians AL Central +450 -> +360
Judge AL MVP +150 -> -105
Freeman NL MVP +1500 -> +650
Burnes NL Cy +700 -> +500
McClanahan AL Cy +210 -> +155
We got in early on all five and there’s still value to be had!
My Washington Commanders season preview is live on @BettingPros - what to expect from Washington after a big offseason in an interesting division, and why Commanders +175 to make the playoffs is a great bet to make:
https://t.co/gnkJbGMw7r
Also did a piece on the Houston Texans - expectations are low this year, but with a promising young QB in Davis Mills I’m sprinkling on an AFC South title for Houston at +3000
https://t.co/XhG3D8PlkP
MLB is back! Loving the Tigers -140 in the first game of their doubleheader today. Sprinkling on Eric Haase to HR (+360).
Write up and analysis on @BettingPros:
https://t.co/oAaXXr44o7
My piece on @BettingPros honing in on the best MLB Futures plays is live! Give it a read, and, if you find it helpful, give it a share:
https://t.co/VPNTRe3LCm
ML Plays last night:
Yankees -165 💰
Reds +155 💰
Marlins +140 💰
Rockies +145 💰
Brewers -210 💰
Orioles -135 💰
Blue Jays 👎🏻
Guardians 👎🏻
Cubs 👎🏻
Big night! I’ll celebrate by giving away $25 to one person who likes + RT’s this and is following me
The model found a big pricing discrepancy in Draftkings’ Austin Slater SB odds - paired this with some other model picks and had a profitable day!
Will give away $50 to someone who likes + RTs this, and follows me and @roundrobinrob 💰
Four ML plays that the sim loves:
Tigers +170
Cubs +130
Phillies +110
Cardinals -125
We’re hot on ML plays, 23-13 in our last 36 for a +10.1 unit gain since June 11
If all four plays hit today, I’ll send $50 to one person who’s following, and likes + RTs this tweet!