Pat’s Picks

Pat is a machine-learning driven model created by an MIT graduate - we deliver free sports investing picks daily. Tips accepted but never expected 🙏🏼

[Pat’s Picks @PatPredicts]

the world if adam silver was president

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Rangers @ Rays Game 2 Model Distributions:

Model is pretty much dead on w books on this one. I have fair price at Rays -140, so no value on either ML side.

Taking a small position on Under 8 total runs (-115). Game went under 8 runs in 61% of simulations.

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Simulated distribution of outcomes: Rangers vs. Rays

Model expects TEX to struggle against Glasnow. Rangers score 2 or fewer runs in >50% of simulated games.

Rays should find success against Jordan Montgomery. Serious potential for an offensive explosion.

Fair value Rays -230

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Simulated distribution of outcomes: Blue Jays @ Twins

This should be a tight, low-scoring game. Gausman is a worse matchup for Twins than Lopez is for Blue Jays. Model gives Jays slight edge in mode outcome, and in probability of offensive explosion.

Fair price TOR -120

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

@BettingPros readers cash the Primetime SGP for the second straight night!

Bucs ML (-185)
Olave 65+ Yards (+105)
Both Teams U14.5 First Half (-200)

Parlay Odds: +400

Stay tuned for this Thursday’s parlay!

https://t.co/XXz4QJD4yU

[Rent from the Rafters @rftrpod]

2/2 ON PARLAYS TODAY 💰

AJ BROWN TOUCHDOWN
GIANTS +1.5
NINERS -3.5
+725 ✅

MICHAEL GALLUP TOUCHDOWN
COWBOYS LOST FUMBLE
PARRIS CAMPBELL 40+ YARDS
+800 ✅

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Last six published Any Time TD plays (solo or parlay legs):

Josh Palmer +250 💰
Jerick McKinnon +360 💰
Allen Lazard +210 💰
Diontae Johnson +230 ❌
David Njoku +470 💰
Melvin Gordon +180 💰

Will be back for Dolphins/Bengals TNF next week 👀

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

My @BettingPros article on TD Props for tonight’s Steelers/Browns matchup - plenty of value here, even in what will likely be a low scoring game.

https://t.co/8GiHUPnRxL

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Cashed Palmer at +240 AND McKinnon at +380! Who tailed??

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

My play for tonight’s game between the Cowboys and the Bucs, a +475 SGP that I’m feeling great about

https://t.co/g2g021J0pG

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Price movements since this article dropped last week:

Guardians AL Central +450 -> +360
Judge AL MVP +150 -> -105
Freeman NL MVP +1500 -> +650
Burnes NL Cy +700 -> +500
McClanahan AL Cy +210 -> +155

We got in early on all five and there’s still value to be had!

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

My Washington Commanders season preview is live on @BettingPros - what to expect from Washington after a big offseason in an interesting division, and why Commanders +175 to make the playoffs is a great bet to make:

https://t.co/gnkJbGMw7r

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Also did a piece on the Houston Texans - expectations are low this year, but with a promising young QB in Davis Mills I’m sprinkling on an AFC South title for Houston at +3000

https://t.co/XhG3D8PlkP

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

MLB is back! Loving the Tigers -140 in the first game of their doubleheader today. Sprinkling on Eric Haase to HR (+360).

Write up and analysis on @BettingPros:

https://t.co/oAaXXr44o7

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

My piece on @BettingPros honing in on the best MLB Futures plays is live! Give it a read, and, if you find it helpful, give it a share:

https://t.co/VPNTRe3LCm

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

ML Plays last night:
Yankees -165 💰
Reds +155 💰
Marlins +140 💰
Rockies +145 💰
Brewers -210 💰
Orioles -135 💰
Blue Jays 👎🏻
Guardians 👎🏻
Cubs 👎🏻

Big night! I’ll celebrate by giving away $25 to one person who likes + RT’s this and is following me

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

The model found a big pricing discrepancy in Draftkings’ Austin Slater SB odds - paired this with some other model picks and had a profitable day!

Will give away $50 to someone who likes + RTs this, and follows me and @roundrobinrob 💰

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

Four ML plays that the sim loves:

Tigers +170
Cubs +130
Phillies +110
Cardinals -125

We’re hot on ML plays, 23-13 in our last 36 for a +10.1 unit gain since June 11

If all four plays hit today, I’ll send $50 to one person who’s following, and likes + RTs this tweet!

[robbie @roundrobinrob]

I LOVE THE CELTICS ☘️

[Pat’s Picks @PatPredicts]

Picks have stayed hot from the new account…follow@if you haven’t 👀

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

6-2…a brutal beat for the Cardinals, and the Cubs didn’t show up today, but we stay hot! ML plays up over 20 units on the year

[Sam Smith @SamSmithBetting]

6-2…a brutal beat for the Cardinals, and the Cubs didn’t show up today, but we stay hot! ML plays up over 20 units on the year