Thoughts on $QCOM
Investor day gave out some pretty bold claims and guidance. Seems like every one is just trying to get into the data center chip game now.
This reminds me a lot of $ARM before the monster run, with management giving out some pretty outlandish claims and the market rewarding them for it.
$QCOM also indicating they have HBC to combat HBM, which companies will like ig.
Financial wise, seems like FY 2029 EPS guidance is raised from 14.42 -> 18, aka 25% increase. Assuming 14x-17x forward PE, price target of 250-300.
This may not seem like a very high price target considering $QCOM AH as of right now is already $220.
However, I projected a FV of $250ish for $ARM and now it traded to $450 at one point.
Yet the question I am starting to ask more and more is: when is it enough? It's like this is no longer a winner takes all market and everybody is trying to take a piece. Not all wild projections can come true. Wondering if it is time to just stick with the winners now vs taking flyers on what "seems to be early" stocks in a maturing theme (data center chips).
Back in 2025, I had projected that AI inference follow the same path as crypto, with CPU mining -> GPU -> ASIC, where ASIC has the highest competition and the lowest margins. It does seem like we are getting to that stage where good AI chips are also becoming a commodity product.
I currently do hold a starter position in $QCOM.
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